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VICTOR CALZADA-EL PASO TIMES Frank Knotts heads out after casting his early vote at the Carolina Recreation Center Wednesday.
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Two Texas political scientists and an El Paso Times analysis of early-voting numbers indicate discouraging results for Democrats hoping to get their voters to the polls to cast early ballots.

In recent cycles, early voting has served as an increasingly good predictor of the final tally on Election Day, which is Tuesday.

The political scientists said it's unlikely that State Sen. Wendy Davis, Democratic candidate for governor, will get within the 10 percentage points of her opponent, Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott.

To get within that margin would mark a moral victory for Democrats hoping to turn Texas blue in the next six to eight years, experts have said.

REPORTER
Marty Schladen

"Certainly, it's not a good sign for Democrats," Mark Jones, chairman of the Rice University Political Science Department, said of the turnout data. "The numbers so far look very comparable to 2010."

That election serves a good basis of comparison because it was the last time the governor's race was on the ballot. Democrats hope that the changing demographics of Texas will help their candidates, but traditionally, Democrats turn out in far greater numbers in years when a presidential election tops the ballot.

Early voting turnout numbers this year are even less than they were in 2010, an election that was widely regarded as a disaster for Democrats

El Paso County residents cast 38,399 ballots during the Oct. 20-31 early voting period, according to the county election's office, down from 42,251 in 2010.

Only 9.5 percent of El Paso County's registered voters cast ballots during early voting, the only large Texas county to register turnout below 10 percent, according to the Secretary of State's Office.

According to a Times analysis, early voting turnout was down slightly in Texas' large counties that were won by Republican Gov. Rick Perry in 2010. It is down more significantly in large counties that were carried by Democrat Bill White.

The analysis, which used numbers from the Texas Secretary of State's Office through Thursday, showed that turnout in the Perry counties was down 2 percent compared with 2010. In the White counties, it was down 11 percent.

The turnout measure used in the Times analysis is the percentage of registered voters casting ballots. But even the raw number of votes cast in Texas' 15 largest counties during the Oct. 20-31 early voting period is lower than in 2010, despite population growth.

"It's pretty bad for the Democrats," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston.

Turnout in Dallas and Harris counties — which were carried by White four years ago — is down 6 percent and 23 percent, respectively.

Denton County, which went overwhelmingly for Perry, saw its early voting turnout rise by 8 percent.

Mail-in ballots, on which Texas Democrats have placed new emphasis this year, were up by 58 percent when compared to 2010.

"It's up, but that's still just a drop in the bucket," Jones said.

The mail-in votes received through Thursday made up just 6 percent of the 1.46 million total votes cast in Texas' 15 largest counties.

"It's not going to get the job done," Rottinghaus said.

It's hard to say whether Texas strict voter ID law is having an impact on turnout, Rottinghaus said.

A federal judge in Corpus Christi ruled earlier this month that the law would keep some Texas minorities, poor people, elderly and young people from voting. But Rottinghaus said the evidence in this election has been mixed.

On one hand, turnout in heavily Hispanic Rio Grande counties such as Hidalgo is up. On the other, it's down in big counties such as Harris, where there are high numbers of new, lower-income residents who might not have gotten a state-issued ID.

Even after Election Day, it's going to be hard to measure how many voters did not attempt to vote because of the law, Rottinghaus said.

"These are people who are already confused by the process, so they just decide they aren't going to show up," he said.

The early-voting data do not mean that the Texas Democratic Party, Battleground Texas and other groups have failed in their efforts to better organize voters who haven't put a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion for 20 years, Jones said.

"But they needed to achieve an unprecedented success and they haven't done that," he said.

The numbers shed little light on the race for the 23rd Congressional District seat, one of the most closely watched U.S. House races in the United States.

The district stretches from San Antonio through Socorro. It pits Rep. Pete Gallego, a freshman Democrat, against Republican Will Hurd, a businessman and former CIA agent.

Rottinghaus, who in the past has given Hurd the edge in this race, on Friday said, "It's going to be a very tight election."

Jones, who has given Gallego the advantage, said it would be a particularly big blow for Democrats to lose the seat after putting millions of dollars behind a highly seasoned officeholder. Gallego represented a large portion of the district in the Texas House for 22 years.

"If they lose that, it's a really troubling sign for the Texas Democratic Party," Jones said.

Marty Schladen may be reached at 512-479-6606.