Election results will measure Democrats' progress vs. GOP in Texas

AUSTIN — It was never going to be easy for Wendy Davis and the Democrats to win in Texas this year — or particularly hard for Greg Abbott and the GOP to beat them.

Supporters hoped Davis would usher in a Democratic renaissance in Texas. But Republicans see history, fate and a streak of cowboy conservatism as keys to sustaining two decades of GOP dominance.

Texas Democrats publicly insist they can pull off a surprising victory Tuesday. But most party strategists and leaders quietly acknowledge that after decades of decline, the best they can realistically hope for is to make progress toward being competitive in 2018, or even 2022.

So barring a miracle, what would count as a win that Democrats could build on?

“Victory for Democrats would be if any of their statewide candidates lose by single digits. That would be a sign of significant progress,” said Matthew Wilson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University. “I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

Here’s another measure much discussed in Democratic and Republican political circles: 42 percent.

That’s the share of the vote that Democrat Bill White got in the last governor’s race, in 2010, when he lost to Rick Perry by 12 points.

If Davis and the much-ballyhooed voter mobilization efforts of Battleground Texas push her percentage to, say, 45 or 46 percent of the vote, it will be evidence that reliably red-state Texas might become competitive.

“We’ve built the foundation,” said Jeremy Bird, a former Obama campaign adviser who helped create Battleground Texas.

But a double-digit Davis loss would damage the credibility of Battleground Texas, especially among its big-dollar donors, and set back Democratic organizational hopes in Texas.

“If Wendy Davis loses by a wider margin than Bill White did, as some polls suggest she could, then that is a really catastrophic result for Democrats,” Wilson said.

More than anything, this year’s election is about discontent and dashed expectations.

Republicans both nationally and in Texas have played to voter discontent with President Barack Obama, whose approval ratings are rock-bottom in the state.

Davis carefully avoided being seen with him, which didn’t stop Abbott from inserting the president’s picture in a television spot like a political doppelgänger: “Wendy Davis is just like Obama.”

Democrats started the year with bright expectations for Davis, who vaulted to national attention and was feted on both coasts as a new political star in the progressive constellation.

Her campaign’s original plan was to make her hard-knocks story — of a teenage mother who worked her way to Harvard Law School — central to her appeal and to frame the campaign around it. But questions about blurred facts in her official personal narrative created voter doubts that have lingered.

At a stop in Houston in the campaign’s final week, Davis deflected a question about her prospects and seemed for a moment to dial down expectations.

“If by chance I don’t win …” she said before looking for silver linings. “It’s been such a long time since Texas has had a really competitive general election contest that has driven people out to vote, that has helped them understand there really is a stark contrast between the two people who are asking to serve the state as its next governor.”

Abbott went into Election Day predicting not only that he would win but that he would make historic inroads among Hispanic voters, who traditionally vote Democratic, and would carry a majority of women voters.

Those groups — women and Hispanics — are at the heart of Davis’ campaign blueprint and the efforts of Battleground Texas. A growing Hispanic population is the rich trove that Democrats hope will reverse GOP dominance, if not this year, then eventually.

Many Hispanics don’t vote, especially in non-presidential election years — something Battleground Texas pledged to change by working directly with the Davis campaign to effectively remake the Texas electorate.

In Texas, Hispanics made up 35 percent of the population in 2012 but just 20 percent of voters. To win, Democrats must actively work to get more Hispanics to the polls.

“Hope is a great slogan, not a great strategy. You can’t just hope to grow the pie,” said Bird, of Battleground Texas.

Instead of dismissing Battleground Texas, Abbott chief political consultant David Carney made it a boogeyman to energize Republican voters.

In an April speech, Abbott warned: “Texas is coming under a new assault, an assault far more dangerous than what the leader of North Korea threatened when he said he was going to add Austin, Texas, as one of the recipients of his nuclear weapons.

“The threat that we’re getting is the threat from the Obama administration and his political machine.”

The group’s alignment with Davis helped Abbott and other Republicans make the case. When she rose to stardom by filibustering a tough new abortion law, she became a polarizing figure, and conservatives around the country are eager to see her stumble Tuesday.

Nationally, though, there is a pox-on-both-your-houses mood among voters, a distrust of institutions of government that’s reflected in dismal approval ratings for both Democrats and Republicans.

Davis pilloried Abbott, with two decades in Republican politics, as the face of the incumbent party in Texas — a party she said rewarded cronies, embraced polarization and had been in power too long.

In Texas, which treasures its distance from Washington, Abbott appealed to voter discontent by putting Obama and his policies on trial.

“There’s a sense that at least compared to the mess in Washington, state government is evaluated relatively favorably,” said Wilson of SMU. “It doesn’t mean people are in love with their state government. But you don’t see the deep dissatisfaction with Austin that is directed toward Washington.”

Twenty years ago, another sitting president suffered poor approval ratings in Texas that were not helpful to the Democratic nominee for governor.

Bill Clinton was in the White House and Ann Richards was fighting to win re-election as governor. Richards targeted her GOP challenger, George W. Bush, with attacks in which he appeared to be the victim of negative campaigning.

Four years earlier, Richards had attracted nearly two-thirds of women and 77 percent of the Hispanic vote. But in 1994, her advantage with women largely evaporated and her edge with Hispanics dwindled.

Richards got 46 percent of the vote, losing to Bush by less than 8 points.

This year, plenty of Democrats would tout that as a huge victory.

Follow Wayne Slater on Twitter at @wayneslater.