IEA Warns Signs Of Stress Must Not Be Ignored: World Energy Outlook

November 13th, 2014 by Joshua S Hill

“As our global energy system grows and transforms, signs of stress continue to emerge. But renewables are expected to go from strength to strength, and it is incredible that we can now see a point where they become the world’s number one source of electricity generation.”

So says International Energy Agency Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven at the launch of the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook, which warns of the great risk of current events distracting decision-makers from recognising and tackling the longer-term signs of stress that are emerging in the energy system.

“The global energy system is in danger of falling short of the hopes and expectations placed upon it,” wrote the authors of the World Energy Outlook 2014, before highlighting a number of energy crises the world over — including Middle East turmoil affecting oil, the effect of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on gas, and others.

There is a positive outlook for renewables in the report, as they are expected to account for nearly half of the global increase in power generation by 2040, and overtake coal as the leading source of energy generation. However, as has been noted time and time again, integrating this much renewable energy is going to be the major sticking point.

Over the next week, CleanTechnica is going to dig deeper into the Outlook, so stay tuned for more in-depth coverage of the IEA’s most recent World Energy Outlook report.

Some highlights from the central scenario presented in the World Energy Outlook 2014 include:

world primary energy demand is 37% higher in 2040 than today, creating greater stressors on the global energy network
this pressure would be even greater, however, without existing efficiency measures that ease the strain somewhat
by 2040, world demand for coal and fuel will plateau, though for very different trends across countries.

For those who want to wander through the available information for themselves, you can check out everything the IEA has available here.

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Tags: IEA, International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

About the Author

Joshua S Hill I'm a Christian, a nerd, a geek, and I believe that we're pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), and can be found writing articles for a variety of other sites. Check me out at about.me for more.

JamesWimberley

The IEA has partly changed its spots, but is still stuck in the past in some ways. Nuclear power growing by 60%? Wanna buy a nice bridge? You can only get this by making every favourable assumption: France and the US extend the life of all their reactors (unlikely), China finishes all its current construction (likely) and builds all the paper ones (evens). India meets its paper targets (absurd), Hinkley C is built (evens) and followed by others (very unlikely), etc.

How do they get the coal growth they fear? The IEA itself thinks it will peak in China by 2019; optimists like me have solid reasons for thinking it’s already happened, and imports have crashed. Deutsche Bank have written down their valuations of Chinese coal companies by up to 90%. India’s plans for domestic coal growth are IMHO – and that of Greenpeace analysts – based on wishful thinking, and the government does not want to depend on expensive imports. Coal makes no economic sense for Africa, see today’s post. It will continue to decline in Europe.

The IEA continues to make the methodological error of starting with an estimate of primary energy consumption. Since this depends heavily on the fossil/non-fossil mix (fossil waste energy is 4x: +/- 60% to +/- 15%), the number is partly circular. With one scenario you can fix this, but it makes a nonsense of comparisons.
- Michael G
  
  You are right but no one wants to hear the truth.
  
  I think analysts in organizations like the IEA are constrained to take seriously govt. plans for growth, even if they themselves think they are ridiculous. And similarly, govt’s are required to appease their coal and nuke constituencies by projecting increases when they privately expect declines.
  
  Look at the recent US elections. Mitch McConnel got to be leader of the US Senate by telling his voters he would defeat the “war on coal” when he actually started out as moderately pro-environment in pre-tea party days.
  
  Voters, unions, and cos. want to be told what they want to hear – reality be damned. You can’t tell a 45 y.o. coal miner or executive to go back to school and become a PV installer. In fact, I don’t know what I would tell a 45 yo who makes his living from coal.
  
  These are not easy times for those whose life has been based on the buggy whip industry. Life is hard – then you die.
- http://www.michaeljberndtson.com/ Michael Berndtson
  
  I’m guessing nuke will be pushed hard. It’s been embraced by many of the folks behind the US China emissions deal. This is our centrist “common sense” environmental capitalists who also embraced fracking to fight climate change.
  
  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-12/gas-and-nuclear-win-with-new-u-s-china-climate-accord.html
  
  So on one hand there’s emissions reduction and on the other hand there’s land, water and air pollution. The old fashion environmental stuff. It seems like a race between decelerating climate change and polluting the land, water and air.
  - Bob_Wallace
    
    Nuclear will get talked up a lot. But the bottom line is that the money to build a lot of new nuclear plants won’t be found.
- Karn
  
  As far as India is concerned what greenpeace thinks is mostly irrelevant . The government plans to increase coal production by 80% by 2019 , even if half of that is achieved , it will offset any reduction in China’s consumption of coal .
  Also could you enlighten me what are Indias paper targets for nuclear ?
  - JamesWimberley
    
    Grrenpeace accused Coal India of deliberate misrepresentation of its coal reserves when it was floated. That sort of thing gets the serous attention of investors and policymakers.
    The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2014 (link) – sceptical of nuclear, but a serious outfit – writes of India:
    “The current five year plan counts on doubling the currently installed capacity and starting construction of a further 19 units. … Trade journal Nuclear Intelligence Weekly put it more bluntly: “There’s no reason to believe that the country can keep this schedule, of course.” Indeed, Indian nuclear planning has been always overly optimistic, not to say unrealistic.”
http://www.energyquicksand.com/ Edward Kerr

The IEA admonishes that “The global energy system is in danger of falling short of the hopes and expectations placed upon it,” Well… DUH!!! As long as the world holds on to fossil fuel for energy production the feared “short falls” will become the norm. The only way forward to create jobs, growth and energy security will be to make ALL global increases in power generation be renewables and end coal by 2040 instead of simply reaching use parity with coal.

I realize that there are a whole host of problems integrating renewables into the grid but it can be accomplished. The grid needs upgrading anyway. It will take a change in the mindset of our priorities along with our financial and political goals. Maintaining business as it is now will only lead us all to grief. Obviously, one applauds every effort toward renewables but the pace has to quicken.