Why China Is Finally Shouldering (Some of) the Burden

Military analysis.
Nov. 12 2014 5:16 PM

Let’s Make a Deal

China’s Xi Jinping seems to understand that with great power comes at least some responsibility.

Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images
U.S. President Barack Obama (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) attend a press conference at the Great Hall of People on Nov. 12, 2014, in Beijing, China.

Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images

So much for the notion that his party’s reversals in the midterm elections would diminish President Obama’s standing at this week’s summit in Beijing. Far from viewing the American leader as a “political casualty” (as the New York Times predicted), Chinese President Xi Jinping met with him privately for more than four hours and signed a slew of unprecedented bilateral accords, including pledges to limit greenhouse gases, reduce tariffs on American high-tech products, and set safety protocols on military exercises.

Fred Kaplan Fred Kaplan

None of this is to say that China has softened its regional ambitions or that U.S.-Chinese relations have struck a chord of pure harmony or even that these agreements—signed Wednesday, at the summit’s conclusion—will end global warming, revitalize the U.S. economy, or transform the South China Sea into a zone of peace and stability.

But they will prod things in that direction. More to the point, they suggest that Xi is coming to see that with great power comes at least some responsibility, and that his country lacks the economic vitality and military strength to achieve that power, or exercise that responsibility, on its own—that he still needs to make deals with the West, especially the United States.

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The deals aren’t breathtaking, nor should anyone expect them to be. The accord on carbon dioxide emissions is a case in point. China is pledging that its emissions will peak by the year 2030, and that by that time, renewable sources of energy—such as wind and solar—would grow to 20 percent of total output.

At first glance, this isn’t so impressive, and in this case, the first glance is right. A 2011 study by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory concluded that, due to natural processes—slowing population growth, the winding down of urbanization, and the consequent saturation in construction and ownership of electrical appliances—China’s CO2 emissions “will peak around 2030.” In other words, even without this accord, the socioeconomic-demographic trends would level off Chinese emissions around the same time.

But that doesn’t mean the accord should be dismissed as trivial. The Lawrence Berkeley study’s conclusions also assume that China stays on track in its planned conversions to solar and wind power. (Those sources can’t grow to 20 percent of a country’s energy output overnight.) And so, the treaty commits the country to stay on that not-so-easy course of change.

Finally, until now, China has resisted pressures to commit to some quantitative target or specific timetable in reducing CO2 emissions. It’s significant that Xi conceded that point. And now that China has done so, the West should push him to level off emissions by 2025 or even earlier.

“They realize they’re being shamed, and that’s important to them as a growing power,” says Elizabeth Economy, director of China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The Ebola epidemic is another case in point. As the disease spread and many nations sent aid to afflicted African countries, China initially did nothing, until everyone started pointing fingers, noting the shameful contrast between China’s vast economic investments in Africa and its failure to help the continent’s most distraught people—at which point it donated quite a lot.

The agreement to reduce tariffs on high-tech American products is also significant. Xi had hoped that China would have built its own information-technology industries by now; his cybersleuths have stolen enough blueprints for the design of microchips and related gear. But it hasn’t happened, so to boost China’s economy, he has to open up trade with the outside world, even if it helps the latter as much as it helps China, if not more so. That’s what free markets are about.

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