The Times science reporter John Schwartz, who focuses on climate change, sketches out the questions he’ll be asking in the days ahead.
The climate agreement announced by President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China is long on promises and short on details.
It calls for the United States to cut greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 — a significant bump from the administration’s earlier goal of reducing those emissions by 17 percent by 2020. For its part, China has agreed to pursue policies that will lead the country to stop its growth in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, or earlier if possible, and to increase the amount of non-fossil-fuel energy production in China’s mix to about 20 percent by then.
How these measures are to be achieved is another matter.
The announcement leaves many unanswered questions, including:
— What more might the United States have to do to reach the more ambitious emissions goals the president announced in China?
The White House fact sheet on the announcement noted that President Obama called for the 17 percent reduction in 2009, and has since added muscle to that pledge with June 2014 rules from the Environmental Protection Agency requiring power plants to reduce their emissions 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030; other standards are in the works to reduce emissions from heavy-duty engines and vehicles, expected in March 2016. The E.P.A. and other agencies have been ordered to take actions that will cut methane emissions from landfills, coal mining, oil and gas systems, and other sources. The two nations have agreed to boost research and development of the kinds of technologies that produce clean energy, including methods of capturing carbon emissions from coal plants. Whether those efforts will be stepped up, or additional measures will need to be taken, to meet a goal that is roughly double the pace of those earlier reduction goals, is unclear.
— How can China achieve these ambitious goals?
In fact, experts on China’s energy policies say the country has been shifting toward a mix of power sources that, over time, could reduce emissions in the range called for by the agreement. David Victor, a longtime climate policy analyst at the University of California, San Diego, said that the importance of the agreement lies in the commitment from China’s leadership to stand behind these policy goals.
— Will this get the world to the often-stated goal of holding the rise in overall global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius?
The deal announced Tuesday cannot, in itself, stop the temperature rise projected by groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Supporters of the deal note, however, that this is the kind of deal that can serve as a foundation for larger agreements among more nations.