Worse Drought Than in '98 Appears Possible in Texas

Still reeling from a 1998 drought that devastated the state's farming and ranching communities, Texas officials are growing increasingly alarmed about what appears to be a potentially more serious drought looming this year.

''There's still time for it to turn around, but we are not looking good over much of the state,'' said Roland Smith, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University. ''People are really getting nervous.''

The unusually warm winter and dearth of rainfall, particularly in the western two-thirds of the state, have severely damaged the winter wheat crop and stunted the growth of hay and natural grasses for cattle and other livestock. And during the next two months, a crucial time for the spring plantings of cotton, corn and other crops, drier than normal conditions are predicted for most of the major farming regions.

The Climate Prediction Center of the United States Department of Agriculture lists the trans-Pecos region in far western Texas and most of the state's Mexican border areas as abnormally dry, and the long-term drought severity index shows the trans-Pecos region and parts of the plains of west-central Texas in a state of moderate drought. If rainfall projections hold true, officials say, most of West and South Texas will experience a moderate-to-extreme drought as early as next month.

Gov. George W. Bush and Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs are expected to unveil drought-related initiatives on Thursday, including declaring emergencies in 170 of the state's 254 counties where dry conditions have created a significant risk of fires.

''We are right today at the same point in drought index comparisons where we were when the Governor declared a drought emergency in June of 1998,'' Ms. Combs said. ''We're three months ahead of last year, and that's what's giving people heartburn.''

Despite flooding last fall in cities like Del Rio, Texas is flirting with a second consecutive year of paralyzing drought, the third year of drought in the last four.

''Certain areas of the state did have some very large amounts of rain in the fall,'' Mr. Smith said. ''But that was rains that came so fast that a lot of the water ran off and we haven't had much rain in any of those places since.''

And where rain fell over the winter, ''none of it has penetrated into the subsoil, which is so necessary to make a reasonable cotton crop,'' said Carl G. Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M.

It has also been a particularly windy winter, adding to the problem.

''When the wind blows across the surface of the land, it actually sucks the moisture out,'' Ms. Combs said.

As a result, the ground is especially dry going into the spring rainy season.

''We keep hoping for three inches or so each time one of these fronts moves through,'' Mr. Anderson said, ''but they just keep on blowing past, dropping just a half-inch here and there, and then heading out East. If it stays dry another six weeks or so, we will see some tremendous damage.''

National Weather Service projections call for below-normal rainfall in Texas in the coming months. But even if the spring rains are normal, they may not be enough.

Still, officials say, copious rains might produce an adequate crop.

''There is time for a turn around,'' Mr. Anderson said.

A bill in the Texas Legislature would provide $25 million in drought relief, but it is intended for those suffering from last year's drought. In October, Congress passed $5.9 billion in disaster aid to farmers affected by droughts nationwide, and $2.4 billion remains to be distributed.

Ms. Combs said Texas officials would urge the Federal Government to speed those payments.

Last year's drought hit all of the state. For the moment, this year's drought threat is more localized.

The trans-Pecos areas have had just 19 percent of the normal average rainfall this winter, Ms. Combs said, and the Edwards Plateau of west-central Texas has had just 24 percent. But the rolling plains, north of the Edwards Plateau, have had 69 percent of normal rainfall, and the high plains of the Panhandle have had 93 percent.

Texas agricultural economists predicted last summer that the 1998 drought would mean a drop of $2.1 billion in the state's farm and ranch production. A report released in February by Texas A&M found that the drop was $2.4 billion, and that $8 billion more was lost in farm-dependent businesses.

Most agricultural economists are loath to speculate, but the Texas Agricultural Extension Service estimated that the 1998 drought persuaded as many as 10 percent of the state's farmers and ranchers to quit.

''People are giving up; they just can't make it,'' Ms. Combs said.

Calling Texas agriculture ''very vulnerable,'' Mr. Smith said, ''Another year like last year, without additional significant Federal help, and we're going to lose a lot of farmers.''