Falling birthrates and the lengthening lives of baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964 produce an extraordinary statistic. On current trends, from now until 2037, while the numbers of those aged 15 to 64 in the UK will grow on average by 29,000 a year, the numbers of people aged 65 and over will rise by 278,800 a year, according to the thinktank International Longevity Centre – UK. That includes an expanding slice of the “oldest old”, those aged 85-plus. The Queen has already hired extra staff to dish out birthday cards to centenarians.
The World Health Organisation estimates that globally, for the first time in history, the number of people aged 65 and over will, by 2050, outnumber children aged five and under.
According to Age UK, there are nearly 14.7 million over-60s, almost 23% of the population, in the UK. . Some have plenty of money to spend, others are anchored in poverty, but all share needs, interests and challenges that culturally and commercially are already changing the shape of society – often without us even being aware.
The “silver economy” has become all the more attractive to the marketplace because next year compulsory annuities are axed, and would-be retirees can withdraw their entire pension pot in one go, if they so choose.
The scale of this demographic change is unprecedented in history. Ready for Ageing?, a report by the select committee on public services and demographic change published last year, said that despite the scale of the change under way, already triggering a crisis in health and social care, we are “woefully underprepared” for what has been called “the age to come”.
Professor Laura L Carstensen, director of the US Stanford Centre on Longevity, says scientific evidence shows that the older people become, the less like one another they grow, a challenge for those who see ageing as uniformly about decline and frailty. The variability is not based on good luck or genes: “Rather it reflects a range of behavioural, social, economic and occupational factors that, at their core, stem from differences in education and social class.”
The better-educated and more affluent offer a treasure trove of assets to society, but poverty, harsh working conditions and long-term stress exact a terrible toll on others. How we meet the task of ensuring fair and equitable ageing for all means we have to start young, investing in good education and skills from an early age.
We will also need to set aside a fondness for stereotypes and try to understand the lives of older people. For instance, 80% of the UK population is urbanised, but more than 75% of people aged over 65 live in rural areas. Yet innovation hasn’t begun to catch up.
The global spending power of the baby boomer generation will reach $15tn (£9.6tn) by 2020, Euromonitor has forecast. Consumer spending among those over 60 rose 50% more quickly than for those under 30 in the past two decades, according to Eurostat. Age UK says over-65s in the UK spend £2.2bn a week on goods and services – but are they being properly served? Understanding of who spends what, when and why is patchy. Advertising persists in pitching products for the older market using models barely past 30.
A number of today’s baby boomers stay fitter as they age, wish to remain in work for much longer, and may be part of an intergenerational household living with children and grandchildren, able to spend more on holidays, cars and entertainment than they ever could in their youth. Others are isolated, broke and in need of intensive support for chronic diseases. Telemedicine delivered to their home, in which a person monitors their own care, is often offered as a solution, but that may intensify a sense of isolation that does its own damage.
Action by central government is still in its infancy; housing, for instance, that can expand to accommodate a dependent relative, or tax incentives to encourage an older person to downsize, and public spaces geared to accommodate the older as well as the younger person. At the same time, research tells us that, as people move into their 60s, when it might be wise to prepare for a major transition in life in which health and long-term conditions such as diabetes could become an issue and voluntary work and hobbies more important, many prefer to avoid looking to the future.
Change may be on the way. In the US, where there are 77 million baby boomers, the International Council on Active Aging will begin a three-day conference on 13 November. Colin Milner, its founder, says half of all money spent in North America is by the over-50s, yet 95% of the marketing dollar is spent on people aged 30 and younger. The axis has yet to turn.
Last week Barratt Developments, Britain’s biggest housebuilder, announced it was changing how it designs, locates and markets some of its homes to tap into the baby-boomer market. Three-quarters of over-60s own their own homes, compared with less than a third of those aged 25 to 34. Downsizing is what many older people are doing to provide a roof over the heads of their children; that has to be made easier.
According to David Sinclair of the International Longevity Centre – UK, products and services are already being covertly adapted to suit an older population, with a wider benefit to all. Amazon has spent heavily on redesigning packaging. Google increased the size of its entry box. Oxo created tools for the arthritic that were aesthetically pleasing enough to appeal to all. Ueshima, a chain of coffee shops in Tokyo, has sturdier chairs, wider aisles, lower tables and bigger print on the menus.
Sinclair argues small is beautiful – and more attention should be paid to products for less than a fiver that can transform a life. “We know bath rails reduce falls, yet they are not in people’s homes as a matter of course. A plug that changes colour when the water is too hot and empties the bath to avoid flooding costs less than £5, but how do you market on issues we don’t want to know about, such as ageing and vulnerability?”
As we age, perception, cognition and control of movement are all affected. A sense of taste and smell diminishes, factors that could influence the design of a restaurant, for instance, and a choice of food for those who have the money to spend. The solution is not an exclusive ghetto, such as the “senior” gated villages of the past, but a design for life for those growing older that also includes the young.
As Michael Shea, author of The Freedom Years: Tactical Tips for the Trailblazing Generation, writes of ageing: “Failing to prepare is preparing for failure.”
SOLUTIONS FOR AN AGEING POPULATION
THE ACCESSIBLE CAR
Ford and Toyota are among companies working on the car that drives itself for those with failing eyesight, the seat that stops the engine if the passenger is having a heart attack and the self-parking car.
INTERGENERATIONAL TOWN CENTRES
Older people’s housing that has a cafe open to the public at its centre; nurseries twinned with a residential home for older people, with some shared facilities; dementia-friendly cities that provide training and increased awareness to business and volunteers; and change-planning and layouts in parks with signposts and sensory attractions, such as the Dementia without Walls projects which the Joseph Rowntree Foundation is running in York and Bradford, enhancing the lives of those with dementia, and increasing citizenship in the process.
RESPONSIVE STREET FURNITURE
More public lavatories; bollards that “talk” to guide older people on their way; pavements and crossings designed to avoid falls that affect three million over-65s a year.
‘FUTURE-PROOFED’ HOUSING
“It all begins in the home,” says Stephen Burke of the charity United For All Ages: chairs and settees that are easy to use; levers instead of knobs and taps; electric sockets at waist height; floor lighting as used on aeroplanes which lights up as soon as a person gets out of bed; sensors to relay to others if a person has fallen; cushioned floors in the bathroom.
APPS FOR AGEING
In May 2014, Aging 2.0 was established with $4bn from Formation Capital, a private equity capital to address “seniors’ housing care and real estate.” One if its products is BrainAid’s PEAT, an Android smartphone to help those with dementia and strokes. It gives a cue when to stop and start activities; how to break large tasks down; and reminders of what to do when and where in the day.
AN ‘EXTRA’ LIMB
While life is extending, healthy life expectancy in the UK is relatively short – 63 years for men, 65 for women. After that, life may continue for two or more decades for women (less for men), but illness and impairment may be features. Much research is taking place to limit the impact, including the development of a Hybrid Assistive Limb exoskeleton suit that gives extra muscle to older people so they are better able to lift, move and cope.
