The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2014 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies.

---

Changes from Annual Energy Outlook 2013

The AEO2014 Reference case included as part of this complete report, released in April 2014, was updated from the AEO2013 Reference case released in December 2012. The Reference case was updated to reflect new legislation or regulation enacted since that time or to incorporate modeling changes. Major changes made in the Reference case include:

Macroeconomic

• Revised U.S. Census Bureau population projections [2]. The population projection for 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case is almost 6% below the 2040 projection used for the AEO2013 Reference case. Most of the revision in overall population growth results from a lower projection for net international migration, with younger age groups showing the largest differences from the earlier projection. The slower rate of population growth leads to less labor force growth, which contributes to slower GDP growth.

Residential, commercial, and industrial

• Revised base year residential equipment stocks and energy consumption for space heating, space cooling, and water heating, based on data from EIA's 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), the most recent data available[3]. Estimates of appliance stocks and energy consumption for several miscellaneous electric loads also were updated, based on a report by Navigant Consulting Inc., to better reflect recent changes and trends in the residential sector[4].
• Updated and expanded representation of miscellaneous electric loads in the commercial sector, as well as personal computers and data center servers, based on the Navigant report, reflecting recent and expected trends in electronics use[5].

More...