NFL Talkboard and Pick Six week 10: Lions seek to ambush Dolphins

In our regular five things we learned blog this week, we had some discussion of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Today, I would like to broach a far more essential topic: that of the greatest Pick Six contestant of all time.

By calling all six games correctly in week nine, Daithi completed his third clean sweep of the season. This despite having missed out week four altogether.

I’m not sure we’ve ever had someone go six-for-six three times in one season, let alone in half of one. So hats off to Daithi … and hip-hip-hoorays also for grafhamboy, NornGridiron, mercat and Steve Mansfield – each of whom also enjoyed a perfect round last week. Fear not, however, if you are yet to achieve the feat in 2014. There is still plenty of season to go, and I suspect this might be a high-scoring week.

Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions

Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT

While the Dolphins were dismantling San Diego last week, the Lions were enjoying a restful bye. It arrived at just the right moment, giving them time to recover two key offensive players. While much of the focus will fall on Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush’s return might prove even more essential against a Miami team that defends the pass much better than the run. It will be strength against strength on the other side of the ball, as Miami’s fourth-ranked rushing attack goes up against a Detroit group who are giving up just 74 yards per game on the ground. This for me is the hardest game of the week to pick, Ryan Tannehill’s recent successes with a read-option scheme offset by Lions’ stout defensive performances thus far. I’m taking the home team … without much conviction.

Lions to win

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT

The Chiefs and Bills have both been underestimated this year. Not only do they have 5-3 records, each teams’ losses have come (mostly) against good teams. Buffalo have so far been defeated by the Patriots, Chargers and Texans; Kansas City by the Broncos, 49ers and (OK, less impressively) Titans. With running backs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both out of action, the Bills relied heavily on turnovers to win their most recent game, against the Jets. Jackson returned to practice this week and should have some role on Sunday, but if Buffalo are hoping for similar generosity from Alex Smith and the Chiefs, they are likely to be disappointed.

Chiefs to win

Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT

Sometimes there just are not enough tricky match-ups to fill out this contest. With six teams on a bye, I had 12 games to pick from this week and several look likely to finish in a blow-out. Dallas are heavy favourites to win at Wembley, but adding at least some uncertainty to the picture is Tony Romo’s back injury. Will he play? If so, will he be at 100%? If not, can Brandon Weeden do a better job than he did against Arizona? The Jaguars are 1-8 for a (multitude of) reason(s), but they have finally got their running game going with Denard Robinson and, having made the same journey last year, perhaps they can adjust better to the travel weariness and jet lag that comes with playing in London. Then again, perhaps not.

Cowboys to win

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT

For the Saints and 49ers, context is everything. At the midway point, both have four wins and four defeats, yet their prospects look very different. New Orleans sit top of the NFC South and look poised to kick on and win their division comfortably after a slow start to the year. San Francisco are third in the NFC West, three games out of first place after consecutive defeats, and have a fight on their hands just to secure a wild card. This week Jerry Rice added his voice to the chorus of observers who believe Jim Harbaugh is on his way out as head coach. Part of me expects a backlash from the 49ers, an emphatic win to prove that reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. But a bigger part of me believes in the Saints after wins over Green Bay and Carolina.

Saints to win

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT

When these teams met in week three, Atlanta looked like playoff contenders. An emphatic 56-14 victory moved them to 2-1 with a pair of divisional victories under their belts, and seemed to herald the revival of the prolific offense that had fired the Falcons to 36 regular-season wins between 2010 and 2012. Instead, it was a false dawn. Atlanta went on to lose five straight – and four of those by at least two scores. The Buccaneers have won only once in the interim, with head coach Lovie Smith now turning back to quarterback Josh McCown (last seen injuring his thumb in the first game against Atlanta) in a bid to revitalise his team. This ought to be a closer game than last time around, but it’s hard to feel good about a recovery plan that begins with a quarterback who posted a 65.8 passer rating during his previous appearances. 

Falcons to win

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Monday 8.30pm ET/Tuesday 1.30am GMT

Mark Sanchez could not have asked for a much more favourable set of circumstances as he makes his second run at being a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Eagles team he inherited when Nick Foles went down hurt last week had five wins under their belt; Sanchez guided them to a sixth. He should now have at least a month (and likely a few weeks more) to show what he can do with an able supporting cast. Perform well enough, and it is quite possible that he could win the job full-time. But Sanchez also needs to know when to let others shoulder the burden. Against a defense that is giving up 4.8 yards per carry, we should expect to see a heavy dose of LeSean McCoy. The Panthers have played well at times this year – most notably in wins over Detroit and Chicago – but Cam Newton’s struggles over the last three weeks are a legitimate cause for alarm. 

Eagles to win

And the rest

Here are the remainder of this weekend’s games. These are not included in the Pick Six, but feel free to post your winners for them as well. If you do so, please keep them separate from your Pick Six predictions, as it will make life a lot easier when adding up your scores.

Sunday

1pm ET/6pm GMT

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets

4.05pm ET/9.05pm GMT

St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders

4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

8.30pm ET/Monday 1.30am GMT

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

(Bye weeks: Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Washington, Houston Texans)