Reasons For Seahawks Optimism in KC

Yes, the Seattle Seahawks will be on the road in a tough environment playing a very solid football team that plays very, very well at home. Yes, the Seahawks still are banged up and will be without the likes of Zach Miller, Brandon Mebane and Bobby Wagner, with Kam Chancellor and Russell Okung expected to play but may not be anywhere near 100 percent for the game. The defending champs are the underdog in this one, and rightfully so.

There are reasons to be concerned if you’re a Seahawks fan. The Chiefs run the ball well and rush the passer well. Their quarterback is efficient, can run for key first downs and has a knack for finding his tight ends to convert third downs, particularly against zone defenses.

There are, however, perhaps just as many reason the Seahawks can and pull out a huge win, though there’s no doubt they’ll have to play better in some areas than they have in three weeks or so.

The Chiefs’ Red Zone Defense
Among the reasons some are pointing to a Kansas City defense that wil shut down the Seahawks offensively is the Red Zone touchdown percentage the Chiefs have posted this far. They;re No. 2 in the league at just 42.3 percent TDs allowed once their opponents get into the Red Zone.

But Red Zone defense has never proven to be a predictive statistic for future performance, nor is it indicative of good, overall defenses.

Jacksonville is No. 1 in the NFL in this category in 2014, and they allow 28.1 points per week, No. 28 in the league. How, you might ask? Well, they allow a lot of trips to the Red Zone, so their percentage doesn’t help them much. A lot of that can be blamed on an offense that does not control the ball much. Kansas City does control the clock more, but they allow just 2.9 trips to the Red Zone per week, which is the more important statistic.

The reason for optimism here from Seattle’s standpoint is that despite the fact that Kansas City has played some good teams this season — and beaten some, including San Diego, New England and Miami — is that none of those teams had the personnel or the scheme to take advantage of what the Chiefs do NOT do well on defense. Run the football.

Which brings us to reason No. 2:

Big Plays Against the Chiefs’ Defense
No team in the league runs it better or more often than Seattle and the Chiefs allow 4.7 yards per carry. Are the Hawks going to be able to just run the ball down the Chiefs’ throats the way they did this past week at home against the Giants? Of course not. But there’s no doubt Seattle can run effectively and with consistency against Kansas city.

Furthermore, Kansas city has yielded 37 run plays that went for 10 yards or more, third-most in the NFL, and they’ve done so despite the fact that teams have attempted to run just 220 times, the 6th-fewest in the league.

The Seahawks have the highest percentage of big plays in the run game in all the NFL with nearly eight of their total plays ran resulting in a run play of 10 yards or more. That mark leads the league by a wide margin.

The Chiefs are undoubtedly going to fill the box to slow Marshawn Lynch and play disciplined on the edge to contain Russell Wilson, which in theory makes tons of sense. But even with Wilson and the Hawks’ receivers having struggled down the field this season, it’s still an offense capable of doing enough to win the football game through the air, which brings us to No. 3.

Kansas City’s ‘Top Ranked’ Pass Defense
The Chiefs have the No. 1 pass defense in the league only in terms of total yards and yards per game allowed. It’s not a meaningless statistic nor ranking, but it doesn’t tell the entire story.

The Chiefs allow 6.7 yards per attempt — No. 7 in the league to Seattle’s 6.8 and No. 9 ranking — and they rank in the middle of the pack in terms of big passing plays — 25 yards or more in total damage.

Furthermore, the Chiefs’ average time of possession is 31:39, No. 6 in the NFL. That helps their defense stay off the field and keeps the ball in the hands of a capable QB and running game — not unlike what Seattle has been doing the past few years. The Chiefs’ three losses, however, have come in game when their opponents won the time of possession game.

The Chiefs have not won a game this season when they were outgained on the ground and did not come up on the long end of the time of possession stick in the same game. They’re 0-2 in such games, and the league wins at a 32 percent clip when each of those things occur, just 40.5 percent of the time at home.

And again, which team is better equipped to play ball control than Seattle, particularly with Max Unger back healthy and Okung a little healthier than he was a few weeks back.

Turnovers
Despite the fact that the Seahawks have not forced turnovers at the rate they did a year ago — and it’s not really close — they head into this matchup with a +3 versus Kansas City’s -1. The Chiefs don’t turn it over much offensively, but they simply don’t force many — just four interceptions and three fumble recoveries — even though they rank in the top 3 in the league in sacks.

Seattle has six picks and six fumble recoveries and lead the league in forced fumbles. If they can not only win the turnover battle Sunday but get a key one, either late in the contest or in the Red Zone — even if that’s the only one of the day — it may be the tipping point in what could be an old-fashioned, smash mouth football.

Kam Chancellor
Chancellor’s presence is huge this week, not only because he’s a big component in the Hawks’ run defense and Brandon Mebane’s absence will hurt, but because the Chiefs throw to their tight ends an awful lot.

Of Alex Smith’s 182 completions, nearly 30 percent (57 total) have gone to tight ends, mostly Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano. Chancellor and K.J. Wright have helped Seattle work magic against Saints star tight end Jimmy Graham in the past, as well as Vernon Davis and Julius Thomas.

Free safety Earl Thomas is going to be important in defending the Chiefs’ tight ends, too, especially considering Kelce’s speed has afforded him 281 yards after reception, which represents 64 percent of his total yardage.

When Kelce is in the game, the Chiefs throw to one of the tight ends more than 22 percent of the time. Six of Smith’s touchdowns are to tight ends, the rest are to backs. They’ll throw to the tight ends. It’s what they do.

Chiefs Have Seahaws Fever
Or is it the other way around?

We’ve discussed a lot how the Seahawks haven’t had much success throwing the ball downfield this season, but no team in the entire league has fewer ‘big plays’ in the passing game than do the Chiefs with 10. Seattle has produced 13 and have done so in 15 fewer pass attempts.

The Seahawks are +3 in Passing Big Play Differential while the Chiefs are -5. Kansas City wants to nickel and dime teams. Seattle wants to nickel and dime teams. But if the game comes down to which team can stop the others’ nickel-and-dime offense, bet on Seattle. Their defense is better and they’ve put up their better defensive numbers against very similar competition, of not better.

The one distinct advantage Kansas City has is home field advantage, and there is no getting around that. The best way to neutralize that is start fast, the way they did versus Green Bay, Denver and Oakland, and to keep pounding the football with all three running backs, and Wilson on the edges. But there will come a time, or two or three or four, when each time will need to take a shot down the field. The better to make a play here is Seattle by all accounts and measures.

Statistics and other metrics via Sporting Charts, Team Rankings and Pro Football Focus were used in this report.

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