North Texas is hoping that former Denison guard T.J. Taylor will break out in his senior season with the Mean Green. (Denton Record-Chronicle/David Minton)
Editor’s note – The following is the final part in a blog series previewing the UNT men’s basketball season that will open on Friday when the Mean Green host Arkansas-Monticello. Today, we look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Mean Green:
Most college basketball teams across the country have a pretty good idea of where they are at just a few hours before the beginning of their seasons. UNT is the exception to the rule.
UNT head coach Tony Benford said after the Mean Green’s lone exhibition game on Monday that he has no idea what the outcome of the school’s appeal for immediate eligibility for Texas A&M transfer point guard J-Mychal Reese will be or when a decision will be made. Reese will start from the opening tip, if he is allowed to play.
And that is just one of several factors that make UNT a tough team to judge. UNT is hoping that T.J. Taylor, who spent time at both Oklahoma and Marquette before joining the Mean Green, is ready to break out in his senior season. Preseason knee surgery makes how prepared he is for the season something of a mystery.
The Mean Green have just five players returning who played last season and have added five junior college players to the roster. JUCO transfers are a classic boom-or-bust proposition. UNT had high expectations for Armani Flannigan last season, but saw him average just 2.4 points and 2.1 rebounds a game.
The Mean Green believe they have a few impact players among their junior college additions this season, but there is no telling if they will be ready to contribute right away. Benford has been high on Tyler JC guard DeAndre Harris, but he missed the Mean Green’s exhibition due to injury.
Greg Wesley is another high-end talent. He was ranked among the top 10 high school players in the state and arrived at UNT before last season, but failed to qualify academically and sat out. The hope is that he can help UNT this year. He was suspended for the Mean Green’s exhibition game for a violation of team rules, which puts what he will bring the team in question.
UNT had a loaded team two years ago that included the NBA Draft pick Tony Mitchell and several other solid players. Alzee Williams finished his career as the 18th leading scorer in school history and was a member of that team as was Jordan Williams, who ranks 19th with a full season left to play. Chris Jones, who ranks sixth in career assists despite playing just two and a half years at the school, was also a key contributor. Oklahoma State transfer Roger Franklin, who averaged 11.7 points a game that season and is now playing professionally overseas, was also on that team.
The UNT athletic department billed the team as the most talented in program history. UNT went on to finish 12-20. UNT improved to 16-16 and beat Texas A&M last season, but lost Alzee Williams to graduation and saw Jones transfer.
UNT appears to be headed in the right direction, but can it continue that trend with so many new pieces and unproven players? UNT was flat loaded two years ago and didn’t capitalize. Is there any reason to think a team with far lower expectations and what appears to be less talent will exceed what that team accomplished?
UNT did improve last year, but had an easier schedule.
The best-case scenario is that a high percentage of UNT’s unproven players — including Reese and Jeremy Combs, a freshman with star potential — come through and the Mean Green go on to win 20 games. That would exceed what pretty much anyone is expecting outside of UNT’s locker room.
The worst-case scenario would be Reese’s appeal is denied, a few of UNT’s transfers do not make an immediate impact and the Mean Green miss the steady contributions of Alzee Williams and Jones’ ball-handling ability. UNT would then be forced to lean too much on Jordan Williams to carry the load in a year the Mean Green face a much tougher schedule than a year before.
If things don’t go UNT’s way, it could easily end up as a 12-win team again.
The number of unknowns make Mean Green a tough team to judge, but the reality with most teams often lies between the best- and worst-case scenarios. Here is a preseason prediction:
Number of wins: 16
Conference USA prediction: eighth
Postseason prediction: None