Sporting News

Homestead picks: Harvick favored to win it all

0

Homestead predictions

0 / 11
  • There are two very clear strategies among the four championship contenders Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

    Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano, the favorites, hope to do what they’ve done all season — run up front and contend to win the race. Logano has five wins, Harvick four, and they’re both among the leaders in laps led and top-five finishes.

    MORE: Chase storylines | Most surprising champions | New Chase will redefine champion

    Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman, the underdogs, have to swing for the fences, using whatever strategy they can to get to the front. Hamlin has just one win (the May restrictor-plate race at Talladega) and just seven top-fives. Newman has no wins and just four top-fives. They may have to gamble to get the front, or hope that Harvick and Logano have problems.

    And the beauty of the final race of the new Chase for the Sprint Cup is that there’s no telling which approach might work best, or who might win. All four title contenders enter the final race with no points and on equal footing. The first one to cross the finish line Sunday wins the 2014 championship.

    But each driver and team will have a different agenda based on their performance this year.

    “Obviously, you can swing for the fences and maybe, if you don't have the fastest car, you're able to pull different strategies and come in under a caution where other people stay out,” Hamlin said. “Who knows what's going to happen? But this one is going to be a totally different feel, I think, than in years past.

    “There are no deficits. There's no you've got to win by a certain amount or be ahead by a certain amount of positions or behind by a certain amount of positions. We all know we just have to beat the person in front of us.”

    That favors Harvick and Logano, who each have won two races during the 10-race Chase. Harvick believes his team has the edge because it has been in this position before, winning last week at Phoenix to reach the final race.

    “I feel like for us, we had good practice at it last week,” Harvick said. “I feel like everything we did last week, it was one and done. You show up to Phoenix and you know you have to win the race.

    “The guys did a great job preparing the car, called a good race, had good pit stops. I feel like they had more pressure last week than they did this week, so I feel like we've already experienced it, and it was just last week. I feel like that was a good exercise as a team for us to go through.”

    Harvick and Hamlin have been in this position before, battling each other for the 2010 championship won by Jimmie Johnson. Harvick has finished third in the Chase three times; Hamlin has finished second and third.

    Logano, 24, and the veteran Newman are racing for the title for the first time.

    Logano says dealing with the pressure might be his biggest challenge.

    “There's going to be obviously a lot of distractions this weekend, and you've got to be able to put that behind you and race with a clean mind, and not just myself as a driver, but my whole team,” he said. “And I feel like that's been our strong point all year. I feel like my team has been very strong, keeping the pressure to a low point and being able to do their job in those situations. … I like our chances because of that.”

    Harvick likes the fact that everyone is even, that he enters the season finale not trailing in points, but able to race the same way he has all season.

    “I think this year you feel the speed in the car on a week‑to‑week basis no matter what racetrack we've gone to,” he said. “I feel like if things don't go wrong or something doesn't happen, we've been in contention to win the race. For us, I think you come in with that confidence and knowing that your cars have been fast.

    “I believe that we have the cars that are capable to win every week, and I don't believe this week will be any different.”

    There’s one other thing they must worry about — there will be dozens of other contenders trying to win the race as well, particularly former Chase participants who are no longer eligible to win the title.

    Who has the edge in the final race of the 2014 season?

    Start Slideshow
  • Kevin Harvick Kevin Harvick (Getty)
    Kevin Harvick

    Harvick has never won at Homestead, but that shouldn’t matter. He has been fast everywhere this season, including a dominating performance last week at Phoenix. He has just one win on 1.5-mile tracks this season, but has led 742 laps and finished second three times. He should be the driver to beat once again.

    MORE: Harvick the favorite | Playing mind games | Stewart focused on Harvick

    Next
  • Joey Logano Joey Logano (Getty)
    Logano should be able to run with Harvick and contend for the win. He has two wins and six top-five finishes on 1.5-mile track this year and has led 374 laps. His last win came in the Chase race at Kansas, where he led 122 laps.

    MORE: Logano the top challenger
    Next
  • Denny Hamlin Denny Hamlin (Getty)
    Hamlin has not had a typical season, winning just once and leading only 313 laps all season, but he has one thing going for him — he is very good at Homestead. He has two wins there, including last year, when he won the season finale despite struggling most of the season. He has won two of the last five races there and finished ninth in another, giving him a good chance of contending with Harvick and Logano.

    MORE: Hamlin the dark horse

    Next
  • Ryan Newman Ryan Newman (Getty Images)
    Newman will be the gambler, and he may have to. He has led just 41 laps all season so he likely will have to use fuel mileage or pit strategy to get to the front or stay ahead of the other three. He did finish third at Homestead in 2012, so he knows how to run well there.

    MORE: Newman the wild card | Newman could ruin Chase
    Next
  • Jeff Gordon Jeff Gordon (Getty)
    Jeff Gordon

    Gordon is angry and hungry to end the season on a high note after missing the championship round by just one point. If he doesn’t go after Brad Keselowski for taking him out at Texas, Gordon should be a contender. He won at Homestead in 2012. 
    Next
  • Matt Kenseth Matt Kenseth (Getty)
    Matt Kenseth

    If he doesn’t win at Homestead, one of the biggest surprises of the season will be Kenseth not winning a race a year after leading the series with seven wins. He won there in 2007 and led 144 laps in finishing second last year. He hasn’t had the same speed this year, but led 112 laps combined at Atlanta and Texas recently.

    Next
  • Brad Keselowski Brad Keselowski (Getty)
    Like Gordon, he’s not happy about being eliminated from the Chase, and has been strong throughout the playoffs. If not for a broken transmission at Martinsville, he would be racing for the championship. He leads the series with six wins — two in the Chase — and will be looking to end the season on a high note. He would love nothing more than to enjoy one more victory, while helping teammate Logano celebrate the championship.

    Next
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Getty )
    Dale Earnhardt Jr.

    Earnhardt has had his best season since 2004, winning four races and advancing to the second round of the Chase. He would like nothing more than to get a fifth win. He finished third at Homestead last year.

    Next
  • Martin Truex Jr. Martin Truex Jr. (Getty)
    Truex has had a terrible first season with Furniture Row Racing, scoring just one top-five finish and falling to 24th in points. But he could change all that at Homestead, where he has finished third, sixth and fourth in the last three races. 
    Next
  • Jeff Gordon Jeff Gordon (Getty)
    Race winner

    Bob Pockrass: Matt Kenseth. Do you remember that Kenseth led 144 laps and finished second last year? Yes, Johnson won the title but Kenseth nearly did all he could. He will play the spoiler this year.

    Jeff Owens: Jeff Gordon. Only one driver has ever won the championship by winning the season finale — Tony Stewart in 2011. It likely won’t happen this year, either. Though Harvick, Logano and Hamlin all should be strong, they will be more worried about outrunning each other than actually winning the race. That will open the door for Gordon, who will look for a bit of vengeance after the disappointments of the last two weeks.


    Next
  • Kevin Harvick Kevin Harvick (Getty)
    Bob Pockrass: Kevin Harvick. He'll finish second behind Kenseth, not needing to knock him out of the way for the win. Logano will be fifth, just a tick behind Harvick in speed; Newman eighth because he always seems to run somewhere between seventh and 11th; and Hamlin 13th as he continues being frustrated in clutch races.

    Jeff Owens: Kevin Harvick. Logano will be fast, but it’s hard to imagine him withstanding the immense pressure in his first championship race. Harvick has been there before and knows how to handle the most pressure-packed weekend of his career. He will have the car to beat. The only thing that can keep him from winning the title is a mistake on pit road. Hamlin and Newman will be what they’ve been all season — not quite good enough.

    NEXT »
    Most surprising Cup champions

Around the Web