England need mixture of Roundheads and Cavaliers to beat All Blacks

It is said that to beat New Zealand a team have to score at least three tries. As the autumn series of internationals in Europe looms the same could be said of South Africa and Australia. When it comes to scoring points in multiples of five and seven, rather than three, the leading southern hemisphere nations have a clear advantage over their Six Nations rivals.

There were 46 tries in the 11 Tests between the European six and the Sanzar nations – South Africa, New Zealand and Australia – last November. The Six Nations claimed 13 of them, little more than one a match, while New Zealand, South Africa and Australia scored 33 between them, an average of exactly three a game.

The contrast reflects a difference in mindset more than skill set. As the Chinese general and philosopher Sun Tzu said: “Weakness comes from preparing against attack. Strength comes from obliging your enemy to prepare against attack.” Roundheads against Cavaliers. Who dares, wins.

One point of difference is the way in which the All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks use their full-backs: Israel Dagg, Israel Folau and Willie le Roux, respectively.

The three have scored a relatively modest 10 Test tries this year but they are not only quick to turn defence into attack by running back kicks, they are key figures in set pieces with their ability to commit defenders and free support runners as well as exploit space.

England’s Mike Brown is the most similar European full-back in style, certainly when it comes to counterattacking, but he has yet to emulate his form of last season when he stood out in virtually every game he played. Wales tend to use Leigh Halfpenny to return kicks and play the territory game while Ireland’s Rob Kearney is a mixture of the two. Scotland’s Stuart Hogg yearns for opportunity. None, though, carries the set-piece threat of their Sanzar rivals, and the one-sided nature of the matches against the Six Nations countries will continue, with victories tending to be one-off rather than regular, until the European sides are able to attack as proficiently as they defend. France have been an exception, although rarely recently, and in the full-back Darly Domvo, who plays for Bordeaux-Bègles under-20s, they have a player who has been shredding Top 14 defences.

England were criticised for having a go against New Zealand in the summer’s three-Test series and abandoning their traditional strengths of set-piece organisation and playing through the forwards. A response (or a consequence?) has been the omission of their two fly-halves who could be described as Cavaliers: Freddie Burns and Danny Cipriani.

The England coach, Stuart Lancaster, has come to despair of having to field questions about Cipriani at media conferences, wondering why not enough reporters get that attacking prowess has to be underpinned by more prosaic attributes. It is about principle rather than personality: would Carlos Spencer or Quade Cooper in their pomp have been an England regular? On the bench even?

England will have home advantage at next year’s World Cup. They have become harder to beat at Twickenham, with one defeat there in three Six Nations tournaments under Lancaster, while New Zealand and Australia have been defeated there during his time. But if they are to repeat the achievement of 2003 they will need to recreate the all-round nature of a side who were one for all seasons, capable of playing every which way, Roundheads and Cavaliers.

The rugby league international Sam Burgess will make his debut for Bath next month and even before he has made an appearance in his new code, and been allocated a position, he is being talked of as a potential member of England’s World Cup squad or an expensive flop who would have been better off staying where he was.

Bath are talking about playing him at No8, maximising his ball-carrying threat. He would quickly have to come to terms with the breakdown, a hazard he never had to cross in rugby league, but England see him as a midfielder. Folau is an example of a player who seamlessly switched codes, and even had a stint in Australian Rules. His first Test for the Wallabies was against the Lions last year in Brisbane and he hardly looked like someone who had only been playing union for a few months.

He played on the wing then but during the subsequent Rugby Championship, he was moved to the more tactically demanding position of full-back. Teams struggled to catch him out and Australia gave him licence to run rather than weighing him down with instructions. He is now one of Test rugby’s leading players and a candidate for a world XV, someone capable of turning a match in an instant as he showed at the end of Australia’s Rugby Championship match against South Africa, when he helped engineer a late winning try.

Folau will again be up against Halfpenny on Saturday. The Wales full-back showed his attacking potential in the third Test between the Lions and the Wallabies last year, but his role with the national side is more muted even though Wales have a three-quarter line more threatening than many. Their default position is to put the ball in opposition territory rather than risk being turned over in their own half, pointing out that no one kicks more frequently than the All Blacks, who led 43-6 at half-time against the USA Eagles last Saturday despite having only 36% of the possession.

The difference is New Zealand, whether through Dagg, Ben Smith or Julian Savea, are comfortable with the uncertainty of chance. If they sense an opening or a fault line in the defence, they back themselves and their team-mates. Wales need to be more convinced before having a go and while it has tended to pay in the Six Nations, at a time when France are flat, it costs them against the southern hemisphere’s best.

England have pace out wide which they need to exploit on the counterattack this month – Alex Goode has been jettisoned for Anthony Watson who covers wing and full-back – but will their threat at set pieces come merely through the forwards? The loss of Joe Launchbury and Dan Cole robs them of two key forwards at the breakdown, as both are adept at forcing turnovers, and is likely to reduce their opportunities on the counterattack unless the All Blacks kick unusually waywardly.

“The simplest way of creating uncertainty is by deception,” the former Australia outside-half Mark Ella once said. “You have to make the defending team believe, or at least suspect, that you are going to do one thing, when your intention is to do another. Let the ball seek out weaknesses in defence.”

• This is an extract taken from the Breakdown, the Guardian’s weekly rugby union email. Sign up here.