Scottish independence referendum: Alex Salmond addresses final campaign rally - live

Around a hundred independence supporters gathered in front of Holyrood this evening in time for the BBC 10 o’clock news, which was being filmed at the parliament, reports Frances Perraudin. The group sang Scottish folk songs and shouted anti-BBC chants, such as: “Where are your cameras, BBC?”

Those she spoke to told Frances the gathering was completely spontaneous.

“It’s more of a celebration than a protest,” says Clara Harris, a 21-year-old student. “I want to live in a place where my vote counts.”

“The yes campaign isn’t really a specific organisation,” said Lisette Boxman, 28, who works at Edinburgh zoo. “It’s more of a movement.”

Kyle MacKay, 26, first attended a protest at the city’s Meadows before moving with the crowds down to Holyrood. “Blair Jenkins was right when he said that the yes campaign is out of control and that that’s a good thing.”

Survation and the Daily Record have just put out another poll. This one shows yes on 47% and no on 53%, with don’t knows stripped out.

The figures with don’t knows included are:

Yes: 43%
No: 48%
Don’t know: 9%

The Sun and YouGov have another poll. Very much in line with other surveys published today, it shows no on 52% and yes on 48%.

Talking of Barack Obama, the White House just sent this tweet out from him. The US government’s position against Scottish independence is well-established.

My colleague Polly Curtis sends this clip of yes campaigners chanting “yes we can” towards the BBC journalist brought in to replace political editor Nick Robinson after he was booed and heckled.

It was a strong speech, particularly Salmond’s argument that Scottish people are the ones best placed to deal with Scottish problems, his line about Commonwealth countries that have broken free from “Westminster” and never looked back, and his dismissal of the new powers on offer from the UK parties, which necessarily fall short of what he is offering himself. His promises about a fairer, nuclear-free Scotland with an unthreatened NHS are perhaps on shakier ground. Nevertheless Salmond must surely be pleased with the way he has set the terms of debate and dominated the arguments throughout this campaign. Whether that will be enough to get the yes campaign over the line tomorrow we will have to wait and see. PO

Let’s get to it, and let’s do it now, he says in conclusion.

The vote is not about Salmond or the political parties, he says - it’s about you. Don’t let them tell us we can’t. Let’s do this now.

It’s our choice, our opportunity, and our time, he says. All we seek is equality and friendship, he tells the rest of the UK.

We are one nation, Salmond says. If the vote goes against us I pledge to accept that result with dignity.

But if the vote is yes there will cease to be a yes and a no campaign, there will only be Team Scotland to take this nation forward, he says. (Another echo of Barack Obama, this time of his remark that there are no red states or blue states, just the United States.)

The argument has been won that Scotland could be a hugely successful country, Salmond says. He can’t believe Westminster politicians tell the nation of Adam Smith it can’t run its economy and Robert Burns that it doesn’t understand internationalism.

Scotland’s success can only be asserted when poverty is replaced by employment and opportunity, he says.

Tomorrow we can choose hope over fear and opportunity over despair, he says. An NHS properly funded and always in public hands, he says (verblessly), ending the bedroom tax, and “a chance” to remove nuclear weapons.

After tomorrow Scots can get the government they vote for not the government someone else votes for, he says.

This is the greatest, most empowering moment we have experienced, he says.

There are challenges to overcome - “undoubtedly” - but who better to meet them than the people who live and work in this nation?

Salmond contrasts the “fearmongering” in Downing Street, asking supermarkets to come out for no, with the ordinary Scots “getting on with making this country prosperous”.

He calls Scotland the most politically engaged country in western Europe, and campaigners should be immensely proud, he says.

The Westminster parties have cobbled together their “contradictory” proposals for new powers for Scotland, he says. This is insipid and tepid, he says. But tomorrow he can take “every job-creating power” for Scotland, he says.

The crowd interrupts with chants of “yes we can”.

Salmond says Tory backbenchers and the House of Lords would block any such plans anyway. “Scotland’s future must be in Scotland’s hands.”

Salmond recalls a queue of people in Dundee waiting patiently to register to vote, noting that he has been “vindicated” in extending the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds.

These people were registering for the first time because they knew something important was happening, he says. Some of them were in their 40s and 50s and probably hadn’t been on the register since the poll tax, he says with a laugh.

He says he told this story before and said he saw something he thought he would never see in his political life, and somebody cried out: “A Tory!”

What inspires us having the dignity of being an equal nation, he says.

We have proven that every person in this nation matters, Salmond says. We have already made Scotland a much better place as a result of the campaign, he says, and he thanks them all.

This is our opportunity of a lifetime and we must seize it with both hands, he says. Westminster only allowed us a a referendum because they thought no would win.

He praises “famous names” from Labour, the Greens and the trade unions who are supporting independence, as well as the “3,000 businessmen and women across Scotland supporting yes”.

Salmond says the yes campaign is the underdog as it always has been. The Westminster establishment will fling the kitchen sink and half the bedroom at us, he says.

Salmond recalls the recent Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Seventy-one nations and territories across the Commonwealth - just about every one of them has become independent from Westminster in the last 100 years, he says, and not one of them has any intention of going back under Westminster rule.

Alex Salmond begins speaking to shouts from the crowd of “yes we can”.

He says this has been the greatest campaign in Scottish democratic history and the crowd are the greatest campaigners.

Sturgeon calls Alex Salmond her mentor and her friend. To me and to thousands of others, he is an inspiration, she says, as Salmond arrives on stage.

She mentions the recent poll putting yes at 49%. “Can we tomorrow take that over 50%?”

Can we persuade a majority of fellow Scots not to hand control of our affairs back to Westminster but to keep that control in our own hands, she says, characterising voting no as a backwards step.

“Let’s go out tomorrow and make that happen,” she says.

Nicola Sturgen, Alex Salmond’s deputy, is speaking now at the Perth pro-independence event.

She tells a story of an eight-year-old disappointed not to be able to vote.

She says she will vote yes for every child in the country - to give them a better future.

Here is a clip of the yes rally making its way down Edinburgh’s Canongate on its way to the Holyrood parliament a short while ago.

In Perth at the yes rally the BBC’s Nick Robinson has been booed and heckled. Many yes campaigners have called the BBC’s coverage - and Robinson’s in particular - biased. The BBC denies it.

Here is the crowd cheering as Robinson leaves.

Meanwhile elsewhere in Edinburgh Labour’s Jim Murphy is speaking after a mammoth tour of Scotland for the no campaign.

Murphy says he is glad to see the Scottish flag in the audience. Yes voters are patriots, but no voters are patriots too, he says.

When you go to Argos, you can see the prices and you know what currency you’re using - that wouldn’t be the case after independence, he says.

He calls on the members of his audience to each persuade one other person to vote no. “Tomorrow, in just a few short hours, it’s our time.”

A yes march has just walked past my window here in Edinburgh, heading to the Holyrood parliament at the end of the street.

Here are more tweets from Perth concert hall, where Scottish first minister Alex Salmond is due to address the final yes rally of the campaign.

Meanwhile, in Aberdeen:

Ipsos Mori has sent more details of its most recent poll for STV News, which showed yes up seven points to 47% and no down five to 49%, with 5% undecided. The polling organisation says the referendum “looks too close to call”.

Turnout for the referendum is now likely to be extremely high, with 95% saying that they are certain to vote (up by 14 points from August). While this figure is higher, as expected, with those aged 55 and over (97%) it is very high across all age groups, including those aged 16-24, where 90% say they are certain to vote.

Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos Mori Scotland, said:

With hours to go now until the polls open it is clear that the result of the independence referendum is extremely close. Yes have made significant gains in recent weeks, to such an extent that the outcome is finely balanced. Both campaigns now will be entirely focused on persuading undecided voters and on ensuring that their supporters turn out to vote tomorrow.

PO

My colleague Polly Curtis is in Perth at the final yes rally and she sends this clip of the scene.

Scottish finance minister John Swinney has been talking to the Guardian’s Severin Carrell outside Perth concert hall. “What I think is our great advantage is that we have got a population that is excited by the prospect and opportunity of independence,” he said.

In a clear sign they are preparing for the possibility of a yes vote and emergency recall of parliament, Commons officials have sent journalists a briefing note detailing the last times the House of Commons was recalled on a Saturday.

The last Saturday sitting was on 3 April 1982, the day after the Falklands war began.

The previous three dates were:

• 3 November 1956 - Suez Crisis
  
• 30 July 1949 - Summer adjournment debates – last sitting of the summer
  
• 2 September 1939 - Outbreak of World War II
  

That perhaps gives some sense of the scale of the constitutional crisis for the UK if Scotland does vote to leave. PO

Getting on for half of no voters have felt “personally threatened” by the yes campaign, according to a poll of 3,000 voters by YouGov for BuzzFeed.

Some 46% of no voters said they had been threatened, while 24% of yes voters said they felt the same about the no campaign. Forty-nine per cent of no voters said they felt they had not been able to speak freely about their views during the campaign. Only 21% of yes voters felt the same.

And 85% of no voters said they felt Scottish society had become more divided as a result of the referendum campaign. Some 38% of yes voters felt the campaign had made the country more united. PO

Twitter users are posting pictures from the rally in Perth where first minister Alex Salmond will speak tonight.

Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish first minister Alex Salmond’s deputy, is being interviewed now in Perth.

Does she accept Scots who vote no are patriots?

Without a shadow of a doubt, she says.

We have an honest disagreement about how to get the best for our country, she says. Afterwards we will come together again as a country and move ahead united, “in whichever direction the country democratically choses tomorrow”.

What are her anxieties tonight?

She says she is anxious that the vote doesn’t go towards no, but she feels increasingly confident it will be yes, she says.

By coincidence, Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander is being interviewed now on Channel 4 News.

Alexander is asked if Scottish MPs will be prevented from voting on English matters after the referendum. He says that proposal has not been put forward.

With just under 12 hours to go until polls open at 7am on Thursday morning, Alex Salmond is due to take part in one last rally in Perth tonight. I’ll cover it live here.

Salmond is on the brink of the greatest victory of his political career, something that would establish him as the father of his nation. But as my colleague Andrew Rawnsley pointed out on Sunday, even if yes loses on Thursday, Salmond still wins.

The nationalist movement is more potent than ever before while the UK-wide parties will have to deliver on the promises to devolve far more powers to Scotland that they have been panicked into pledging to try to save the union. “The status quo is no longer on the ballot paper,” says one senior Labour figure. Interestingly and ironically, it is the Tories who are now proposing the most radical version of devolution. Whatever is ultimately agreed, Scotland is going to get a lot more powers of self-government. Which many think was the goal Mr Salmond started out with.

In remarks from tonight’s speech released earlier today, Salmond promised the rest of the UK that an independent Scotland would be its “closest friend”.

The leaders of the three main Westminster parties may not feel quite so friendly towards him. A yes result would mean an existential crisis for all three of them - prime minister David Cameron could face a no-confidence vote after leading the Conservative and Unionist party to the loss of part of the union, while Labour and the Lib Dems would lose substantial numbers of MPs and large parts of their political and intellectual bases.

Recent hints that Gordon Brown could stand for Holyrood could be just the start of a fracturing of both parties across the new national border, with key figures such as Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander and Labour’s foreign affairs spokesman Douglas Alexander forced to chose a political future either in the remaining UK or in Scotland. PO

Oil-rich Shetland could opt to leave Scotland if it votes for independence, Alistair Carmichael, the Scottish secretary has said (see earlier).

A spokesman for the yes campaign has issued this response, promising the islands more power under an independent Scotland:

Scotland’s island communities will have greater control over their local economies, natural environment and be represented at the heart of government in an independent Scotland. This pledge has already been made by the current Scottish government and Yes Scotland is fully in support of that.

An islands prospectus launched in June outlines a comprehensive package of powers for the island communities and highlights the benefits independence will bring.

‪A yes vote tomorrow puts Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands by moving power closer to the people. That won’t stop at Edinburgh. A yes vote is about empowering people and communities throughout Scotland, including our island communities. That is one reason why the Shetland News has chosen to chosen to back yes.

To the north of Aberdeen’s centre lies Tillydrone, one of the city’s most deprived areas, where many have seen little change in the circumstances of their lives despite the oil-fuelled economic boom that has generated massive wealth nearby, reports Ben Quinn.

It’s an area which, like others across Scotland, that has seen intensive canvassing by the leftwing Radical Independence campaign.

I joined them today as their final push got under way before tomorrow’s referendum vote. They’ve been aiming to get a range of voters out for the yes side – including people who are alienated by politics, others who have never voted before and the sizeable number of immigrants living here who are from countries including Nigeria, Poland and Russia.

He speaks to them in this video:

It’s not just the media who have sometimes been getting a hard time from campaigners in Scotland. Sometimes it’s the other way round. As we report elsewhere on the website, one campaigner received an apology from Sky’s Kay Burley after she called him “a bit of a knob”. AS

STV commissioned the Ipsos MORI poll. Here’s an extract from their report, with more details.

The survey conducted by Ipsos-MORI put support for Yes on 49% against 51% for No when undecideds are excluded.

With those yet to make up their mind factored in, the No campaign is on 49%, Yes on 47% and Don’t Know at five per cent ...

The MORI poll represents a seven-point increase in support for Yes and a seven-point drop in backing for No.

Pollsters interviewed 1405 people over the age of 16 between September 15 and 16.

More on the Ipsos MORI poll.

JK Rowling hopes that, by Saturday, the Scots will have put their divisions behind them.

What do they feel about the election in Shetland? My colleague Esther Addley has been finding out.

There was a rare display of political unity outside the Bank of Scotland on Lerwick’s Commercial Street on Wednesday, with representatives of Labour, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats standing side by side behind the Better Together stall.

“We do have plenty of other issues we could discuss among ourselves, but on this we are a partnership,” said Maurice Mullay, who chairs the local Conservative Association.

“It will be a No vote quite solidly in Shetland, I’m quite sure of that,” says Mullay. “The Yes campaign have certainly built things up and we have been a bit more modest. Shetlanders might not be as voluble, but they are still fixed in their views.”

Theo Nicolson, the local Lib Dem chairman, describes himself as “Shetland, and then British”. And Scottish? A long pause. Only because his mother was Scottish, he concedes. “We’re so different here in Shetland. Our history, we were part of Norway of course and we’ve always had a strong Norse background. We don’t have the tartan culture here.”

His strong sense of Britishness comes from his father and grandfather who fought in the two wars, something that is important to many older islanders, he says.

Much has been made about how an independent Scotland could model itself on Norway, which sought its independence from Sweden and later invested its huge oil revenues wisely. What did a group of five Norwegian teenagers – newly landed on Wednesday morning in Lerwick after sailing from western Norway as part of a gap year programme – think about that suggestion? “In Norway we are talking about quitting oil because it’s running out, and also because of the environment,” said Lise Carlsen wryly.

And what were their impressions of Shetland, where they would spend less than 24 hours before sailing back to Bergen on Wednesday night? Was it at all like Norway? “It’s more British of course,” said Jacob B Jorgensen. “In Norway we have wooden houses but here they are made of brick.”

Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, is in Largs now. BBC News are showing Nick Robinson asking him a question, but it’s hard to hear what he’s saying because of supporters in the background shouting “Yes, we can.”

Five former British European commissioners have signed a joint letter released by Better Together saying that it would not be easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU if it leaves the UK.

Given that they are all Conservatives (Lord Tugendhat, Lord Brittan, Lord Patten), or Labour (Lord Kinnock and Lord Mandelson), that is no great surprise.

Here’s an extract from the letter.

The Spanish Government has made it clear that re-joining the EU would not be easy for Scotland and could take several years. At best there is no guarantee that Scotland would keep the hard won opt outs and special terms that Britain has achieved over the years, including being out of the Euro, free from EU control over national budgets, retaining the rebate that protects UK taxpayers, and keeping the VAT exemptions on everyday goods and control over our borders. There is good reason to judge that some of them would be impossible for a separate Scotland to achieve by negotiation.

David Miliband, the former Labour foreign secretary and brother of the current Labour leader, has offered this comparison from the US, where he now runs International Rescue. AS

Today’s online Guardian letters page features letters on the Scottish independence referendum from all over the world.

Here’s an afternoon reading list.

• Perri 6 at the Centre for Government and Leadership looks the immediate problems a yes vote would create for Whitehall.
  

First to be affected on Friday morning will be the duties and role of Treasury civil servants. After a “yes” vote, they will be working with the Bank of England to craft the precise wording of assurances given to the markets, in the hope of stemming both an outflow of funds from banks and bank accounts registered in Scotland and a run on sterling combined with a great sell-off of British government bonds. How far should they advise ministers and the governor of the Bank to go? In the interests of Scotland, of course, it would be best for the UK to give an open-ended guarantee of the value of deposits in Scottish banks. But the markets might test such a commitment very quickly. Is that really in the interests of English, Welsh and Northern Irish UK citizens that what will, after a “yes” vote, by five o’clock on Friday morning already be more their Bank of England than it will be Scottish citizens’ Bank? Should Treasury officials advise the governor and the Chancellor to expose “rump UK” citizens to such potentially huge liabilities? This is not just a question of civil service ethics. It is a constitutional and a public management question which has to be answered in a hurry.

• Mike Small, writing for Bella Caledonia, says the British media have revealed their true nature

A bond of trust between large sections of the people and the media is broken. It goes back before Nick Robinson, Leveson to Hillsborough and beyond as people have begun to realise the deeply reactionary implications of the slow tabloidisation of society.

This issue of trust is important when considering important matters. So who do we look to when we don’t trust editorials or politicians or bankers any more?

Who would you trust? Janice Galloway or George Galloway? AL Kennedy or Charles Kennedy? George Robertson or James Robertson? We need to turn a negative into a positive.

The issue isn’t to distrust the media but to have trust in ourselves,not to disown corrupt institutions but to build better ones.

• Ben Page at the Staggers says that undecided voters do not pose a problem for pollsters.
  

There are still a group of around 10 per cent of people who are undecided or could change their minds. Will they split roughly 50/50 as with everyone else or not? Will they all decide to support Alex Salmond at the last minute? At Ipsos MORI our approach to dealing with this is to ask which side of the argument they are leaning towards, Yes or No. We include all the “leaners” with the side they are leaning to, as we have routinely done with every final voting poll we have ever published. At the moment they split Yes/NO bang in line with everybody else and move the overall result by less than 0.1 per cent. That leaves us with “don’t knows” who say they are certain to vote, but still can’t decide at all - around 4 per cent of all our respondents. However, even if they split by say 2 to 1 either way, they only move the headline figures by 1 point - and, at the moment anyway, even if they voted 100 per cent Yes they would still not pull the Yes vote over 50 per cent. So undecided voters are not that big a challenge to pollsters.

• Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy at the University of Stirling, writes that the referendum debate has been a missed opportunity.
  

It is commonplace to argue that the Scottish independence referendum has reinvigorated political debate: grabbing the attention of people who would normally not engage; producing high TV audiences for debates; and packing the town halls with people hungry for information. Yet, two problems should give us pause for thought. First, public knowledge of the issues is patchy – as expressed in polls as general uncertainty or incorrect answers to specific questions. Second, public attention to a small number of issues – including the future of a currency Union, Scotland’s membership of the EU, Scotland’s NHS, and Trident – comes at the expense of attention to political and policy processes. The referendum on Scottish independence has not produced the same focus on political reform as the referendum on Scottish devolution.

• Nick Cohen at the Spectator says nationalism fuels hostility to foreigners.
  

Sometimes foreigners see us with a clarity we lack. Britishness was immensely useful to immigrants and ethnic minorities. It gave them a space where racists could not reach them. No one could say that they were not ‘really’ British, because in multinational, multi-ethnic and multi-confessional Britain the ‘real’ Briton did not exist.

Last week The Times published a letter from a Jewish refugee from Hitler, who made my point for me. More by luck that anything else, she saved her life by receiving citizenship in 1939. When she applied for her first job, her employer asked her nationality. ‘English,’ she said as she embraced her new land. ‘No you’re British,’ he replied. ‘You will never be truly English.’

The best reason for voting “No” has nothing to do with pounds and oil. If Salmond wins, the people who want to check accents and bloodlines will everywhere be strengthened. Britain has had few successes recently but one has been pushing to the margins the small-minded obsessives who want to ask whether you are ‘really’ English or ‘truly’ Scottish. The margins are the best place for them. Let’s keep them there.”

• Poet and St Andrews University professor of english, Robert Crawford, has composed a Macbeth Scottish independence mashup, featuring Alexander the Great, First Minister of Scotland Daveheart and Prime Minister of the Britons.

The scene opens with the three witches: “When shall we three meet again, In thunder, lightning, or in rain? When the referendum’s done, When the battle’s lost and won. That will be when Salmond’s gone. Where the place? Hampstead Heath. Better Together unto death! Is that your phone? Daveheart calls: anon! – Fair is foul, and foul is fair: Hover through the plebs and filthy air.

Here’s the Guardian video of Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s deputy first minister, on the final day of campaigning.

The legend - almost certainly apocryphal - is that a consignment of ZX Spectrum computers fell off the back of a lorry in Dundee in the 1980s and whizzkids began using them to create computer games, reports Steven Morris in Dundee.

From such humble beginnings, a whole high-tech industry developed. Grand Theft Auto was conceived here and 4J Studios, which works with the developers of Minecraft, is based on the revamped dockside. Abertay University has become a world leader in computer games and interactive media courses.

Steve spoke to some of Abertay’s students. Callum MacDougall, 21, told him:

I’ve already voted by post yes. I think a change is needed. It’s not that I think there’s anything particularly wrong but I don’t see why we shouldn’t be making our own decisions for ourselves. I don’t worry that the computer games industry will be harmed by independence; it’s a business that doesn’t depend on the UK as such; it’s a global industry. Dundee has shown by becoming such a centre for excellence in computer games that you can do something for yourself.

Simone Elliot, 22, said she still hadn’t made up her mind:

My friends can’t believe that I’m still unsure but I’m worried by those who are getting so excited about the idea of independence. Nobody really knows what is going to happen. Nobody knows the real cost of independence and that scares me a bit.

Steven also spoke to Andrew Allan, 32, who said he was voting yes.

I believe the people of Scotland, we can stand on our own two feet. We’ve got enough natural resources as a people and a country that we can do it.

He agreed with MacDougall that the computer games industry would not be damaged by independence.

Alex Salmond is fond of citing the Nobel Prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz, when asked about the economic case for independence. Stiglitz thinks it’s sound.

But other economists don’t agree. The latest to weigh in is Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He says the “overwhelming majority of macroeconomists” think the economic cost to Scotland of leaving the UK would be very high.

Here’s an extract from his blog.

The claims that Stiglitz makes about the economics of Scottish secession are a jumble of wishful economic theorizing (assume what I want to be true, is, and what I don’t want, isn’t), social democrat idealism (only selfish special interest nastiness keeps the world the way it is, we can easily do better), and 60s hippiedom (act local, we can set up our own community not subject to the Man). I am no neo-conservative, but I have been mugged by reality enough to view that as an irresponsible basis for policy advice. The article also ignores or misrepresents some facts about the Scottish and European situation, presumably because those facts don’t fit the theory or ideals.

Posen does not have a Nobel prize, but he was a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.

On the World at One Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s deputy first minister, was asked about Sir Tom Hunter’s criticism of the SNP’s plans for a currency union. (See here.) She replied:

Tom Hunter is very respected Scottish businssman and he’s actually entitled to his view. There are many other equally respected Scottish businessmen who’ve come to a different view. They think a common currency is in the best interests of Scotland the best interests of the rest of the UK.

Helen Pidd spent yesterday in Dumfries and Kirkcudbright in southern Scotland talking to families divided on whether to vote yes or no.

Marie McFadden works in the Burns Cafe on Bank Street in Dumfries, and is voting “no” on Thursday. Her niece, 20-year-old Roisin, is voting “yes”, along with the rest of the extended family.

Marie said:

I think if my life was horrible and if I wasnae able to go on holiday or have my tea out or was in hardship I might want change. But I just feel like I’ve got a nice wee life. I don’t want to jeopardise that for something unknown. It’s scary, isn’t it?

She said her brother, Roisin’s dad Terence, was forever trying to change her mind. “Every time I go round there he’s on to me, telling me what he’s heard on the news, quoting all these figures, saying: ‘Why should we have a Tory government when we don’t want one?’”

Roisin, who lives at home, said she doesn’t believe the promises of more devolution belatedly offered by the main Westminster parties in recent weeks.

They promised everything would change last time after the other referendum, that we would have more power, and nothing changed. I don’t think we will be fooled again. I think we should have our own rules and not everybody else’s rules.

Jamie Menzies, 23, a golf course green keeper from Kirkcudbright in Dumfries and Galloway, is voting yes.

His twin brother Ian, who works in a chip shop, is still undecided. Everyone else in the family is a no.

Jamie said:

I decided about a month ago; before that I was going to vote no like everyone else in my family. But then I started reading more about it on Facebook, watching the Yes Scotland videos on YouTube, watched the debates and changed my mind. The thing I don’t agree with is that our vote doesn’t really count in the Westminster elections. We vote Labour or SNP and we still get a Tory government that we don’t want. I think we should make our own decisions about what happens in our own country.

When I told my parents I was voting yes they said I was an idiot.

Ian said: “I still can’t make up my mind. I just don’t know what to do.”

Here’s a clip of former prime minister Gordon Brown’s well-received speech to the Better Together rally earlier today. Brown seems to have breathed new life into his political career in recent days with his passionate attempt to save the union and keep Scotland part of the UK with his plans for further devolution. PO

With the race on a knife-edge, the voters of minority sections of Scottish society could make a potentially crucial difference. The Guardian’s Ben Quinn is in Aberdeen, which has one of the largest proportions of residents born outside of Scotland.

Scotland’s third most populous city has drawn large numbers of immigrants from across Europe and the rest of the world as a result of its thriving – oil boom-fuelled – economy.

They range from executives and specialists working in the oil industry itself to many others, including a sizeable number of eastern European immigrants, who are working in the city’s services, catering and hospitality sector.

At the headquarters of Better Together, I met Tom Rist (Canadian-born) and Rahul Oza (Tanzanian-born) - both of whom said they were voting no:

Of course, the yes side are also counting on picking up votes (as well as support) from the “non-native population of Aberdeen”. Stay tuned for something on that.

My colleague George Arnett has summarised the referendum in nine key numbers. Click here to read it in full, but here are the nine points in brief:

• 307 years - how long the union has been in existence
  
• 703 days - how long the referendum campaign has been up and running
  
• 4,285,323 - the number of registered voters
  
• £1,033,475 - how much more money Better Together has received in major campaign donations than Yes Scotland over the past year
  
• 79% - the probability of a No vote based on gambling patterns, according to Betfair
  
• 95,600 - the number of Twitter followers of Yes Scotland
  
• 275,000 Facebook interactions a day
  
• 357767 317879 - the grid reference of the new centre of the UK if Scotland leaves
  
• 6am - the estimated time of the last result to be called in the referendum
  

Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, has suggested Scotland should stay in the union to help stop its unemployment rate doubling to the level of Ireland, reports Rowena Mason.

This tweet, claiming that the Scottish Telegraph’s editor Alan Cochrane is on a £20,000 bonus should the referendum be a decisive no, caught our eye. PO

We asked our Scotland correspondent Severin Carrell to find out whether this was true or not and this is the reply he got when he approached Cochrane:

I would love a bonus but I know nothing of any bonus plans which I’m accused of in Private Eye. If there was a bonus going, I’m waiting with open hands.

And if there are any bonuses going, all my lot would get one. I will put in a word for you too.

Nicholas Watt asks:

Are the Scots independent yet? Find out here: http://www.arethescotsindependentyet.com/

While Gordon Brown was giving his well-received speech at the Better Together rally in Glasgow, yes campaigners were in buoyant mood as famous names gathered with grassroots activists outside the same city’s concert hall to mark the final push before the country goes to the polls tomorrow, reports Libby Brooks.

Actors Martin Compston and Elaine C Smith were joined by the Yes Scotland executive and members of groups including Women for Independence, English Scots for Yes and Firefighters for Yes.

The area around Donald Dewar’s statue at the top of Buchanan Street, as well as nearby George Square, has become an unofficial gathering point for yes activists over the past week, with flashmobs singing Caledonia and even an impromptu early evening ceilidh. It’s the indyref’s Tahrir Square, if that comparison isn’t too loaded.

With balloons, chants of “yes we can” and “hope not fear” the atmosphere was cheerful but not quite as overwhelmingly optimistic as recent yes gatherings I’ve been to, perhaps as the knowledge sinks in that the polls are still showing an agonisingly close win for no.

Smith explained what the yes campaign had to do to get over the line tomorrow, echoing Barack Obama’s mould-breaking presidential campaign of 2008.

I think it is about people, particularly women, weighing up the arguments. We’re really good at that ... In essence it is about hope ... Yes offers hope and change, and people want to have something in life to vote for.

Compston talked about the George Square gatherings; he organised one for yes activists via social media himself yesterday evening.

Jeane Freeman of Women for Independence told Libby:

We need to get every single vote out, in particular all those folk who have registered for the first time. Our slogan is ‘take another woman with you’ and keep on talking about the benefits of a yes vote for women, including equality enshrined in a written constitution, free child are, equal pay legislation with teeth.

Stephen Paton, who presents the #IndyRef Weekly Review on YouTube, told her:

I think most people have made up their minds, but for those who haven’t it’s really about keeping a strong presence on the streets and being there to answer any last minute questions.

Below is Big Sandy, a regular at yes events - real name John Ainslie of Scottish CND. He said:

The costume get a good reaction. Everybody smiles. It’s a way of starting the conversation. A yes vote is a chance to get nuclear weapons out of Scotland and possibly the UK.

Here’s my colleague Nicholas Watt’s view on the Gordon Brown speech:

Gordon Brown gave a vintage performance at the last Better Together rally of the referendum campaign that will bring back memories of the days when he dominated the UK political stage as one of the main architects of New Labour.

Speaking without notes, the former prime minister combined a passionate appeal to Scottish voters, as he said he would vote no for the sake of his children, with a classic Brown economic demolition job of his opponents.

The rally, held in the Maryhill area of Glasgow, was designed to provide positive images for television after the Better Together campaign was criticised for being relentlessly negative. A piper led the main pro-UK party leaders onto the stage at a community hall where the comedian Eddie Izzard compered proceedings. Members of the audience waved banners saying: “Love Scotland Vote No.”

The former prime minister warned that Alex Salmond had laid an “economic trapdoor” from which the people of Scotland would never escape if they voted yes. He then listed seven “real risks” which included uncertainty over the currency, the need for an independent Scotland to build up £30bn in reserves, if it uses sterling outside a formal currency union, and the danger to one million jobs linked to Scotland’s membership of the UK.

The speech highlighted the main theme Brown has been campaigning on for months and which formed the basis of his recent book - to set the referendum debate in terms of what is best for Scotland rather than debating the future of the UK. But the former prime minister has, until recent weeks, campaigned just at Labour party events.

Brown has finally become the start turn for the cross-party Better Together. It is quite late in the day, though the no side are confident they will nudge victory.

Another Tory MP has expressed his opposition to the Barnett formula - the arrangement guaranteeing the Scottish government a certain amount of money that the leaders of all three main UK parties promised to maintain yesterday. This is from Philip Davies, MP for Shipley.

Here’s an extract from Gordon Brown’s speech - on the risks independence would pose, and the “massive financial hole” he says their policies could leave in Scotland’s accounts.

Terry Macalister, the Guardian’s energy editor, sends this report on some statistics just out from from Wood Mackenzie, a globally respected Edinburgh-based energy consultant. The report predicts that the longterm decline in North Sea oil and gas production will be temporarily arrested in the run up to 2018 but will then fall again.

By 2023, it will be down below 1m barrels of oil equivalents a day - from 1.43m now and 1.46m in 2018.

1m barrels would be less than a quarter of output in the North Sea peak days of 1999.

Also Wood Mackenzie believes there are 15.3bn barrels of reserves yet to be exploited.

This compares with industry body, Oil&GasUK, and the SNP who believe the figure is 24bn.

The Wood Mackenzie figure is close to the one highlighted by Scottish offshore industrialist Sir Ian Wood (no connection).

Wood Mackenzie says Scotland can lay claim to 84% of commercial reserves and warns the tax concessions needed to dismantle old platforms could cost the UK - or Scotland - £9bn by 2030.

Correction, 6.40pm: An error in Wood Mackenzie’s figures led to us writing that by 2023, North Sea oil and gas production would be down below 1m barrels of oil equivalents a day - from 1.17m now and 1.3m in 2018. Those figures should be 1.43m now and 1.46m in 2018. This has been corrected.

A yes vote in Scotland would be very demoralising for the unionist community in Northern Ireland, an academic has warned. This is from my colleague Henry Macdonald.

Dr Graham Walker, an expert on Ulster-Scotland relations, said a yes vote would have major implications for the region and lead to further political de-stabilisation.

The Queen’s University Belfast political scientist said: “Scotland is the most emotional link in the British chain for unionists. It might be questioned whether unionists can adapt to a new UK that doesn’t have Scotland in it. Would unionists feel their identity could be expressed in that new UK?

“It would be demoralising politically for unionism, and as such it could have repercussions in terms of the political situation here.”

Dr Walker even suggested it might convince some unionists to prefer an “Independent Ulster” option - something that would be an anathema to Irish nationalists living in Northern Ireland - to a truncated UK.

But Walker’s warning should be tempered by consistent data from opinion polling in Northern Ireland since the IRA and loyalist ceasefires over the last two decades. Successive public surveys show an often stronger pro-union majority in Northern Ireland compared to Scotland in the years building up to tomorrow’s independence referendum vote.

Johann Lamont, the Scottish Labour leader, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader and Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, are now on stage at the Better Together rally in Glasgow.

This is from Blair McDougall, the Better Together campaign director.

Alistair Darling, the leader of Better Together, is speaking. AS

He says at the end of a campaign like this, you need certainty.

But the nationalists are not offering certainty.

If anyone is in any doubt, they should say no, he says.

Everyone in Scotland if fiercely patriotic, he says. But his view is that Scots should say no with head and heart.

Imagine a yes vote on Friday. There would be years of uncertainty, he says.

This will be one of the biggest decisions people will make. If you buy a house, you need to be sure of the foundations.

A vote to say no is for a secure, stronger Scotland.

Yes we love Scotland. That’s why we’re voting no.

Eddie Izzard, the comedian, has opened the Better Together rally in Scotland. He said saying no could be a positive act, if it involved rejecting a bad thing.

Alistair Darling has just come on stage. He was escorted in by people playing the bagpipes.

Here’s more detail on what Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, told the Spanish parliament this morning about how long it would take Scotland to rejoin the EU. (See here.) My colleague Ashifa Kassam has filed this from Madrid:

Rajoy has warned that it could take “years” for an independent Scotland to be integrated into the European Union, as all 28 countries would need to agree unanimously.

“It’s clear, as is explained in the treaties and has been demonstrated more than once by EU leaders, that if one part of a state separates, it converts itself into a third territory with respect to the European Community,” said Rajoy.

He noted that “they can ask to be integrated”, but warned that it would “open a process that could take years. In the case of Spain it took eight years.”

His remarks came in response to a question put to him by MP Aitor Esteban, from the Basque Nationalist Party: “If the yes campaign wins tomorrow’s Scottish referendum, will your government facilitate the integration of Scotland in the European Union?”

Rajoy said that he had spoken with representatives from the 28 countries in the EU. “Everyone in Europe thinks that these processes are tremendously negative because they generate economic recessions and more poverty for everyone.”

He added they act like a “torpedo to the vulnerabilities of the EU, which was created to integrate states, not to separate them. Strong states are what’s needed today.”

Lord Barnett has now found his comments about the eponymous formula (see here) have made it into a Yes Scotland news release.

The release contains an appeal to the Scottish people from the many groups backing Yes Scotland. They say the Scots should ignore the “vow” from the three main UK party leaders yesterday offering Scotland more powers in the event of a no vote.

Here’s an extract. AS

Already Tory MPs are rebelling against the promises made. The leaders’ vow, they say, is “not a guarantee” that Westminster will accept the changes. Some have already said they will block them. Even the person who introduced the Barnett formula has spoken out to say that its continuation would be a “terrible mistake” - and scrapping it would slash Scotland’s budget by some £4 billion, which would do huge damage to our National Health Service.

Today, the most powerful political force in the land is the people of Scotland.

If we vote No we would be at the mercy of whatever promises David Cameron makes to the supporters of Nigel Farage. The Labour politicians who are providing cover for the Tories won’t be able to help.

If, however, we wake up on Friday to a Yes vote, then the full range of powers we need to create more jobs and fully protect the NHS are coming. We get the vital new job-creating powers we need and the ability to secure our NHS for the future.

Libby Brooks has been at today’s yes rally outside the Glasgow Royal Concert Hall.

John Harris has been travelling across Scotland and has met people on both sides of the independence debate. Above all what he observed from both the yes and the no camps was an engagement with politics he had thought was dying out.

“I can really feel that something incredible’s happening here,” he says in the video below. “In British terms, no question, this is the most significant political moment of my lifetime.” PO

After much speculation over which side the Scottish Sun would endorse in the independence debate, today’s paper refuses to pick sides, Frances Perraudin reports.

“Britain’s Got Talent vs the Ecks Factor”, the headline reads. “We believe in the people of Scotland to make the right decision,” the paper concludes. “Whichever you choose, the Scottish Sun will continue to fight for you and our Scottish principles”.

The Scottish Sun’s front page ignores the story next to the masthead on its English edition: “Salmond army plan shot down”, criticism of the SNP leader by “top British warriors”.

Meanwhile, today’s Daily Mail pleads with Scots to stay in the union. “To our Scottish cousins we say sorry for England’s inept political class and beg you to stay in our great British family,” an editorial reads. “Our peoples are so intermingled by blood and history that there’s hardly a family on either side of the border that doesn’t have friends or relations on the other ... This is why today, the Mail makes a heartfelt appeal to the decent, sensible, cautious Scots who represent the overwhelming majority of a great nation.”

The Herald leads with “Yes hails poll momentum”, quoting chief executive of Yes Scotland Blair Jenkins saying that recent surveys, which show a relatively small 52-48 gap in favour of the union, were “hugely encouraging”.

In an exclusive from the Daily Telegraph, Scottish first minister Alex Salmond is accused of bullying the principal of St Andrews University, Prof Louise Richardson. The Telegraph has seen emails it says show that Salmond’s office attempted to persuade Richardson to release a statement criticising the UK government’s higher education policy.

Further afield, the New York Times’s Stanley Reed argues that North Sea oil revenue would not be sufficient to justify “such a big bet on the country’s economic future”, even if the bulk of it went to an independent Scotland, as is expected. “The approximately £5bn, or $8bn, that the British government received in tax revenue from North Sea energy last year would have been the equivalent of only about 3% of the Scottish economy,” he writes.

Spain’s El Mundo reports on this morning’s statement to the Spanish parliament by Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy. The prime minister made it clear that Scotland would have to reapply to join the EU, just like any other state. The Spanish media has paid extra attention to the Scottish independence debate because of similarities it has to its own Catalan independence movement.

Danny Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury in the UK government and a Scottish MP, has also put out a statement about the job figures. He says the overall numbers show that “the United Kingdom is becoming the employment powerhouse of the major economies” and the the Scottish figures are “a powerful demonstration of how we are better together”. AS

Ahead of a frenetic final day of campaigning today by both sides in tomorrow’s referendum, many activists on both sides tried to catch up on some sleep last night.

But not everywhere. The Guardian’s Ben Quinn was at the final session held in Aberdeen by the pro-independence artists’ group National Collective.

Here’s the sound of them singing along and stamping their feet to the leftwing Scottish anthem Freedom Come All Ye, which was written in 1960 by the Scottish poet, songwriter and activist Hamish Henderson.

And here’s a video of them listening to the Skye Boat Song.

Those enjoying the night included members of the Radical Independence Group (RIC), Women for Independence and others who are canvassing and reaching out to voters from behind stalls today.

The Guardian now has 14 reporters, writers and editors joining our regular correspondents Severin Carrell and Libby Brooks across Scotland – from Esther Addley in the Shetlands to Helen Pidd in the Borders, with comment and analysis from Martin Kettle, among others.

Steven Morris, more usually found reporting in the south west of England, is in Dundee, where he’s been talking to voters about how they feel about tomorrow’s referendum. He’s found a taxi driver who will be ferrying people to the polls for free (and perhaps giving them the arguments for a yes vote along the way).

He has also spoken to a voter who was swung on to the yes side by “what they [the UK government] were wanting to do to our NHS ... They want to cut, cut, cut all the time.”

Are the Scots independent yet? Need a website to tell you? Here you go ...

We’ll be returning to that website again over the next few days. PO

Q: This morning the Spanish prime minister said an independent Scotland would have to reapply to join the EU as a new member.

Salmond says it has been Spain’s position that it does not interfere. A Spanish minister on Newsnight on Monday refused to say that Spain would try to block Scotland joining.

A population with the assets of Scotland, including 60% of Europe’s oil reserves, would be welcome in the EU, he says.

Salmond is asked to comment on the intervention from military figures today. He cites the veterans backing yes.

Q: If you go into negotiations, you would have to accept that you would not get everything you wanted.

Salmond says the Scottish government has already taken that view. For example, it would allow five and a half year for Faslane to be closed.

And that’s it.

I’ll post the key points from the interview shortly.

Q: How do you bring the country together if you do not win?

Salmond says his red line issue in negotiating the Edinburgh agreement (the one setting up the referendum) was the one committing both governments to accepting the result, and making it work.

If there is a yes vote, he will invite people from across the political spectrum to join Team Scotland to implement it.

Salmond says he never thought he would see people queuing up to vote, as he saw in Dundee.

And these were not young people, he said. They were people who cared about their country. It was humbling. If that spirit can be captured, it will turn Scotland into the envy of the democractic world.

There are also campaign events in England today. The Day of Unity campaign is organising rallies in various cities in England, Wales and Northern Ireland to allow people to show their support for Scotland staying in the UK.

There are details on its website.

The three polls out this morning are not the last, Political Betting’s Mike Smithson says.

Q: What have you learnt about Scotland?

We are more self-confident than we were 20, 30 years ago.

Q: That’s because of the referendum.

Darling says that the creation of the Scottish parliament played a part.

And that’s it.

Q: How do you heal the divisions afterwards?

It is going to be hard. The vast majority of people are reasonable. But some have stepped over the mark. To see people demonstrating outside the BBC,with pictures of journalists ... you should not see that in this country, he says.

Some people have stepped over the line on the internet, he says.

Q: But doesn’t calming it down mean people like you should play a part?

Darling says he is fighting to persuade Scots to reject something that would plunge Scotland into years of uncertainty.

Q: If there is a yes vote, will you accept Alex Salmond’s offer to join Team Scotland?

Darling says it is deeply offensive to suggest that only yes supporters are patriotic.

He says he has always made it clear he is not going. He is staying in Scotland, whatever happens.

We will all play our part, he says. It is our country too.

Q: The no side has lost its clear lead. Do you think if no wins, that will only hold back independence a short time?

No, says Darling. He and Alex Salmond have both said this will settle the matter for a generation.

People are still swithering, he says.

It is not like a general election. If we vote to go, there is no coming back.

Q: Deputy prime minister and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg signed the “vow” yesterday. People remember Clegg breaking his previous pledge on tuition fees.

Darling says the main parties agree on this.

Q: Lord Barnett said the Barnett formula should not stay [on the World Tonight last night - I’ll post the quote later].

Darling says Barnett is a very fine man, but the parties do support the Barnett formula.

He says Scotland and the UK will be stronger by decentralising power.

We have built the UK together, he says.

Here’s my daily engraving from the wall of the Scottish parliament.

It’s a quote from Alasdair Gray. Alex Salmond references it in his open letter this morning (“wake up on Friday morning to the first day of a better country”).

Within less than 24 hours, the polls will have opened in a vote on Scottish independence that could break up the United Kingdom.

The polls suggest that that is a realistic possibility, although a no vote seems more likely.

Yesterday we had open message to the Scots from prime minister David Cameron and the leaders of the UK’s other two main parties, Ed Miliband of Labour and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats.

This morning it’s Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, who is putting an appeal in writing. In his own letter to the Scottish people, the SNP leader acknowledges that an independent Scotland will not be perfect, but insists that Scots must be allowed to run their own country for themselves:

For my part, I ask only this.

Make this decision with a clear head and a clear conscience.

Know that by voting ‘Yes’, what we take into our hands is a responsibility like no other - the responsibility to work together to make Scotland the nation it can be.

That will require maturity, wisdom, engagement and energy - and it will come not from the usual sources of parties and politicians but from you - the people who have transformed this moment from another political debate into a wonderful celebration of people power.

Does every country make mistakes? Yes.

Are there challenges for Scotland to overcome? Undoubtedly.

But my question is this - who better to meet those challenges on behalf of our nation than us?

We must trust ourselves.

And he concludes:

Don’t let this opportunity slip through our fingers.

Don’t let them tell us we can’t.

Let’s do this.

Salmond’s letter coincides with the publication of three polls giving exactly the same figures (with don’t knows excluded):

No: 52%

Yes: 48%

The polls are: ICM in the Scotsman; Opinium in the Daily Telegraph and Survation in the Daily Mail.

Salmond and Alistair Darling, the leader of the pro-union Better Together campaign, are being interviewed shortly on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. I will be covering those interviews in detail.

And here’s today’s full agenda, with campaign events that have been flagged up to the media.

7.30am: Alistair Darling is interviewed on Today.

8.10am: Alex Salmond is interviewed on Today.

9.15am: Nicola Sturgeon, Salmond’s deputy, and Humza Yousaf, the Scottish government’s external affairs minister, campaign in Glasgow.

10.30am: Yes Scotland holds a rally with celebrities and other supporters in Buchanan Street, Glasgow.

11am: Gordon Brown, the former prime minister who has become a key figure in the no campaign, speaks at a campaign event in Glasgow.

1.50pm: Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem Scottish secretary, and Sir Menzies Campbell, the former Lib Dem leader, campaign in Fife.

8pm: Salmond gives a speech in Perth.

I’m Andrew Sparrow (AS) and I’ll be writing the blog with my colleague Paul Owen (PO). We’ll make it clear with initials who’s written what, unless it doesn’t seem to matter.

If you want to follow me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. Paul is @paultowen.