As GOP celebrates win, no sign of narrowing gender, age gaps
Yesterday’s elections brought a widespread win for the Republican Party, which will increase its share of seats in the House in the next Congress, and take over the Senate, with a net gain of at least seven seats.
Nationally, 52% of voters backed Republican candidates for Congress, while 47% voted for Democrats, according to exit polls by the National Election Pool, as reported by The New York Times. The overall vote share is similar to the GOP’s margin in the 2010 elections, and many of the key demographic divides seen in that election — particularly wide gender and age gaps — remain.
Men favored Republicans by a 16-point margin (57% voted for the GOP, 41% for Democrats) yesterday, while women voted for Democratic candidates by a four-point margin (51% to 47%). This gender gap is at least as large as in 2010: In that election men voted for Republicans by a 14-point margin while women were nearly evenly split, opting for GOP candidates by a one-point margin.
And well-known generational divides were again in evidence in Tuesday’s election. Young voters have been the Democratic Party’s strongest supporters over the last decade, as they were again yesterday, while Republicans fared best among older voters. But — as in 2010 — an older electorate compared with presidential elections advantaged the GOP.
Fully 22% of 2014 voters were 65 and older — a group GOP candidates won by 16-points. By comparison, in 2012, they made up just 16% of the electorate.
And even though Democratic candidates won the 18- to 29- year-old vote by an 11-point margin, 54% to 43%, this group didn’t carry the same weight as it did two years ago when Barack Obama was re-elected. They made up a much smaller share of the electorate than in 2012, and the Democratic margins among this group also were not as large as in 2012.
According to the exit polls, voters younger than 30 were just 13% of those who showed up at the polls. Though this is little different than the 12% they represented in 2010, younger voters accounted for a larger share (19%) of the 2012 electorate.
And among 30- to 44- year-olds this year, 50% voted for Democrats while 48% for Republicans, but just 22% of yesterday’s voters were in this age range, while 27% of voters were in this age group two years ago.
The age gap in voting preferences, after first emerging in 2004 and 2006, became a major factor in 2008 and has remained substantial in each of the last four election cycles.
This gap is the result both of the youngest voters (18- to 29- year-olds) consistently favoring Democrats over Republicans, while over this same time period voters 65 and older have consistently favored Republicans. Before 2004, there were little to no age differences in vote preferences going back more than two decades.
And the gender gap in elections is at least as wide today as at any point over the last 15 years. Women were ten points less likely than men to support Republicans in yesterday’s election. That gap was eight points in 2012, six points in 2010, five points in 2008 and four points in 2006.
Note: The demographic composition of the electorate according to exit polls may result in slightly different estimates than final figures produced by the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey in the coming months. Still, the comparisons across exit polls over time provide a useful window into the electorate’s composition across elections.
This post has been updated based on a revised weighting of the National Election Pool’s national exit poll as published by NBC News as of 1:30 p.m. on Nov. 5, 2014. If data are subsequently re-weighted by the National Election Pool (NEP), the consortium of news organizations that conducts the exit polls, the numbers reported here may differ slightly from figures accessible through the websites of NEP member organizations.
Topics: 2014 Election, Election News, Gender, Generations and Age
-
Jocelyn Kiley is Associate Director of Research at the Pew Research Center.
Richard Tebaldi • 1 hour ago
I think “older men” have the benefit of “experiencing” politics… I know we’ve been trifled with since politcs began, but in the last 6 years, it appears to me we have been totally disrespected, as have our veterans and the middle class. My personal experience with politics over the last 20 years is that neither party deserves my vote. Only the arrogance with which the D’s have conducted their campaigns, and the R’s following suit, has embarrassed themselves to me. The constant infighting and party voting and terrible negotiating of legislation, favoring PAC money from Big Pharm, Banks, the entire Medical Profession, Utilities begging for better rates and allowed to increase revenues without due cause and all the others who conspire to control prices for their own benefit must be dealt with harshly. Taxpayer paid elections is the only alternative I see to stopping our Country from going broke. We need to take back our Country and vote legislators that will legislate for the PEOPLE not the Industries! WE PAY THE BILLS ANYWAY.. we should be represented properly…no more secrets, no more lies, no more sneaking crappy bills in with good ones. Each legislated piece must stand on it’s own and those who vote in Congress must be clearly identified with their votes. It takes me hours to find out what my legislators vote on, because the bill is 400 pages long and I can’t stay awake that long. FIX IT or find a job, gentlemen!
Denny • 1 hour ago
I just don’t understand why older people would vote republican!! Among the ranks of the republican party are Tea Party members and these hard “right” members if they had their way would destroy many of the things that older people ether like,( such as programs on PBS) republicans are paranoid about PBS thinking their out to get the them. They would also try their darnedest to do away with social security, Medicare & Medicaid, and any such programs designed to help seniors to live in today’s environment!! Why would they go after the hand that feeds them??? I’ve heard they voted republican so they could do their part to reduce our nations debt! Are you kidding me? Why do they think they can save the country from debt and why them??? If they do it to help eliminate programs like Family Planning, ok I can understand their thinking, but they must realize not only will the republicans go after Family Planning, but also those other programs that seniors depend on. I thought old people where supposed to grow wiser as they age, not dumber!!!
Elaine B. Steiner • 2 hours ago
Of course older Americans tend to be more conservativce. They have lived thru more experiences and see the error of their ways. Along with age came responsibility, family responsibilities, home ownership, transportation, career options etc.The old saying is true “If I only knew then what I know now”
Tom • 2 hours ago
As a 72 year “older man” I am extremely disappointed in this result. Not only are older white men the problem in Congress, but in the electorate as well. Term limits is the only answer.
El Brujo • 2 hours ago
Maybe not as many illegal votes were cast?Too much trouble to take the time and expense? I was not, I am, I am not, who cares?
Ronald Head • 2 hours ago
I am 70 and I didn’t vote for the GOP. I can’t believe people voted them back in after they nearly put us into a depression, started the Iraq war which killed too many good American boys and for what. In 6 years they have not done anything in Congress except obstruct and push their social agenda. They will learn their mistake but we have to suffer along with them until 2016.
Steve • 3 hours ago
I wish someone would do a comparison on the real numbers of Democrat/Republican voters in 2010 vs 2014. My guess is that would tell the real story of what happened instead of the media narrative that the country has suddenly gone all Republican because of a change in percentages. If 1000 Democrats and 1000 Republicans voted in a particular District in 2010, and then in 2014 only 500 Dems but the same 1000 Repubs does that mean that the country is swinging Republican? Percentage wise, it’s a 16% change in the ratio but why would the media assume that people are shifting over to the Republicans when basically what really happened is that half the Democrats simply did not show up to vote. Dissatisfaction with the Republican party was at historic lows prior to the election and yet the media says that the entire country is jumping on the Republican bandwagon.
Ceasar Salad • 3 hours ago
The 65 and over are the revolutionaries of the 60s and 70s…..interesting?
Wayne • 3 hours ago
There is an inherent contradiction in the data that I’d like to see Pew investigate. Older and retired people, male or female, are quite dependent on Social Security and Medicare, which the GOP have pointedly said time and again that need to be scaled back, eliminated, privatized, … The AARP has been advocating on behalf of this demographic for maintaining and enhancing these benefits. Why does this demographic appear to be consistently voting against its own self-interest?
El Brujo • 2 hours ago
Good question … hope to see an answer.
Richard Tebaldi • 60 mins ago
The answer is: NEITHER party deserves our vote. If we’ve (sr. citizens) have EVER been disrespected before, I see the last 6 years as the worst! PAC money controls legislators. Legislation is bought at our expense. Big Business buys legislation that allows them to steal from the American Taxpayer. B.B. uses that “extra” money that they would pay tax on to control our legislators. Look at what they’ve accomplished: We used to get 4% in banks for our savings, now we get .01%; Our houses are worth 30 or more % less because one of the “brightest D’s, Barney Frank, didn’t pay attention to his job. Obamacare is bullcrap and is costing retirees big bucks. Medical care for Veterans and Seniors is getting worse and more expensive daily. Town taxes are skyrocketing. Food prices are skyrocketing. We are being lied to trifled with and insulted by the D’s and the R’s. I haven’t seen a candidate that I would vote for in years! They are all control freaks and are in it to see how far they can get by fooling the American taxpayer, the middle class and the senior citizens who saved their money for a rainy day. I am embarrassed by the messages these last few regimes are sending to our children. Our grandchildren are in debt the minute they are born. WE paid with dollars that were worth dollars. We are now spending our savings, and our dollars are worth pennies! Who are the fools? We are for allowing this to happen. We have now been awakened. Watch your step, Congress! Do the right thing for America, forget your infighting, or get the hell out!!!!
Carl G. Oehling • 3 hours ago
This is even worse when persons claiming to be Christian compose 63%. Their bible says in Romans 13: “The powers that be are ordained of God…”. The Constitution has the voters elect the trustees to run this county. It seems to be a sin to not run America according to “Thy will be done…”. Matt. 6:10.
HillRunner • 3 hours ago
I’d be curious to see a poll analyzing WHY fewer Blacks and Hispanics voted Democratic in 2014 than in 2010 and/or 2012.
My Hispanic upbringing—and tutoring in mixed inner-city neighborhoods—incline me to suspect these demographics’ trust in the Democratic party and our President have somewhat dissipated based on not seeing firsthand adequate “in my neighborhood” economic recovery.
Peter • 3 hours ago
What I was wondering is how the GOP’s deficit with blacks, Hispanics, and Asians fared. The article seemed to omit that.
PLM • 10 hours ago
This is interesting and directly contradicts several media reports I have read that say or imply that this was a very different situation than previous mid-terms. It looks exactly the same.
Art • 1 day ago
18-30 year olds of electorate was 13%? Dissapointing but not surprised.
Buzz Mills • 1 day ago
Obama said two-thirds of registered voters didn’t vote yesterday …
that’s disgustingly disgraceful
El Brujo • 2 hours ago
Is there factual verification that it is a true statement?
W. R. Knight • 2 mins ago
Not quite two thirds. According to the U.S. Elections Project it was only 63.3% of voters that didn’t vote. That is not only disgusting and disgraceful, but is probably the greatest threat to democracy in the U.S.