Zeke J Miller

Approval of President Obama drops to 43 percent, survey shows

A new poll of millennial voters finds a majority of those who will definitely vote in next week’s midterm election prefer a GOP-controlled Congress, a shift from a similar poll conducted before the 2010 election.

The Harvard Institute of Politics survey found that 51 percent of 18-29 year olds who are sure they will vote prefer Republican control, compared to 47 percent for Democrats. For all millennials — including those unsure about whether they will vote — 50 percent prefer Democratic control, while 43 percent prefer the GOP.

The results are a dramatic reversal from 2010, when those who were certain to vote preferred Democratic control 55 percent to 43 percent, and indicate that the Democratic hold on younger voters may be waning. Young conservatives are also more excited about voting this fall than their liberal counterparts, the poll found.

Among millennials, once a reliably strong block of support for President Barack Obama, the president’s approval rating has fallen to 43 percent, with 57 percent disapproving of his job performance. Obama’s handling of immigration reform has also brought his approval among Hispanic American youth to new lows. Just 49 percent of young Hispanics approve of Obama’s job performance, down from 60 percent in April, and 81 percent in 2009. The drop in support comes as Obama promised executive action on immigration over the summer, before deciding to delay his action until after the election to prevent political blowback from hitting Democrats.

Only 23 percent of young Americans have a positive view of Republican members of Congress.

“While Democrats have lost ground among members of America’s largest generation, millennial views of Republicans in Congress are even less positive,” Harvard Institute of Politics Polling Director John Della Volpe said in a statement. “Both parties should re-introduce themselves to young voters, empower them and seek their participation in the upcoming 2016 campaign and beyond.”

The survey of 2,029 18- to 29- year-old U.S. citizens was conducted between September 26 and October 9 and has a margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points.

Nominating Kathy Ruemmler would have invited questions on advice she gave the President on an array of sensitive topics

Former White House Counsel Kathy Ruemmler has removed her name from consideration to replace Eric Holder as Attorney General, a White House official confirmed Friday.

Ruemmler, once one of President Barack Obama’s closest aides, was seen as the front-runner for the nomination, which would have required Senate confirmation. Obama asked Ruemmler to consider taking the job in September, shortly after Holder informed Obama he intended to step down after nearly six years on the job. “She took the step this week at her own volition,” the official said.

Regardless of the outcome of next month’s midterm elections, nominating Ruemmler would have exposed her to questions on the nature of the advice she had given the president on an array of sensitive topics. The White House announced earlier this month that the president would not seek to announce a replacement for Holder before the elections.

Ruemmler was one of the lead prosecutors in the government’s case against former Enron executives and worked as a white-collar defense lawyer. She joined the Obama administration in 2009, rising to become the White House Counsel, the president’s in-house lawyer, before stepping down earlier this year.

“Kathy is someone who always tells it like it is, is a world class lawyer, and remains a trusted advisor to the president,” White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough said in a statement. “Anyone who knows Kathy knows she has impeccable judgment, extraordinary foresight, and is a formidable force. She is also as selfless as they come, and the president is proud to call her a close friend.”

The official said Obama had not yet decided on a successor to Holder, and has not made a determination of whether to announce the nomination during the lame-duck period after the election or after the new Congress is seated in January.

Weeks before election day, Democrats have turned their sights to the next election cycle, hoping for better results.

The Nancy Pelosi-backed super PAC campaigning for House Democrats has thrown in the towel on the party’s chances to retake the House majority this year, telling donors in a email fundraising note that it needs their help for 2016.

“I don’t think I will shock anyone by saying that it is an uphill climb to win a majority in the House this year,” the email, titled “Long-term planning,” from House Majority PAC states. “But that doesn’t mean we can’t lay the groundwork for 2016 now.”

Acknowledging that retaking the majority was always a long shot at best for House Democrats is one thing, but saying it publicly just two weeks before polls close is another. Pelosi is barred by law from dictating messages to the super PAC, though it has a history of following her public comments. She has appeared at events for the group, which is run by former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aides and focused on her goal of retaking House control.

At a press conference earlier this month, Pelosi said, “I think we’ll do okay,” when asked about the upcoming election, before shifting focus to 2016. “You know what, their days are numbered,” she said of Republicans. “I know that in two years there will be a Democratic Congress and a Democratic president.”

At an event Monday in San Francisco with Hillary Clinton, Pelosi again focused on 2016, without predicting the outcome of the current election cycle. “I am frequently introduced as the highest-ranking woman in political office in our country,” Pelosi said. “I’d like to give up that title and elect a Democratic woman for President of the United States. And soon.”

Last week DCCC Chair Steve Israel said the party is up for a “tough and unpredictable” election night, saying there are 32 races within six points—enough to tip the balance. But in recent weeks the party has had to refocus on shoring up its incumbents, not targeting potentially vulnerable Republicans.

The House Majority PPAC email was sent in the name of former DNC Chair and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. It says the party must keep fighting this year to maintain any hope of retaking the majority for the next Democratic president—a thinly-veiled hint to potential White House hopeful Hillary Clinton.

“Important legislative actions like raising the minimum wage and immigration reform are virtually dead,” the email continued. “Instead House Republicans would prefer to waste their time trying to dismantle Obamacare. That is exactly the fate our next Democratic president’s agenda will suffer in 2016 if we don’t regain the majority.”

“If we want to have a chance at 2016, we have to hold the line in the House now,” the email concludes.

In a follow-up email to donors Tuesday morning, House Majority PAC Executive Director doubled-down. “Did you see Governor Dean’s message, friend? He’s right. 2014 isn’t about winning the majority — it’s about laying the groundwork for electing a Democratic majority in 2016 to get our next Democratic president’s back.”

Correction: The original version of this story misidentified the people who founded the House Majority PAC. They were former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aides.

A potent tool for raising cash

If Republicans retake the Senate next month, they’ll have done it with a lot of help from Mitt Romney.

The former GOP presidential nominee’s digital operation may have been a generation behind President Barack Obama’s effort, but his email list has proven to be a potent fundraising too for the party as it looks for victory this fall. “It’s easily our most successful digital fundraising source,” said Matt Lira. executive director of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm. “As far as our fundraising is concerned, there’s the Romney list and there’s everything else.”

In the past week, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has emailed the list no fewer than 16 times, many times with emails addressed from Romney himself, while the National Republican Congressional Committee, House Republican’s campaign arm, has used it at least once.

Maintained in a nondescript office overlooking the Potomac River in Alexandria by his former digital consulting firm Targeted Victory, the list is one of the Republican Party’s most valuable assets, containing millions of email addresses and records of more than 1.5 million digital donors to that campaign. “This is the largest donor base in the history of politics on the right,” said Zac Moffatt, a co-founder of the firm and the former Romney campaign’s digital director.

Moffatt’s firm maintains day-to-day control of the list and takes a cut of the fundraising proceeds and list maintenance fees, according to people familiar with the arrangement. The firm, which has been paid millions by the NRSC for its digital fundraising work, transferred more than $100,000 into Romney’s campaign account in June for the rights to use the list.

“Governor Romney is excited that Republican candidates and committees are making use of the Romney for President email list for fundraising and [get-out-the-vote purposes this cycle,” said Romney aide Kelli Harrison. “Hopefully access to this tool will make a difference in races all across the country.”

The value is clear, Lira said. “It’s the largest list of people who are predisposed to donate, predisposed to volunteer, predisposed to vote Republican,” he said. “The Romney donor base is broader, compared to some more ideological lists.” When donors give through the Romney list, it both freshens the underlying list and provides the NRSC with a new contact for its internal lists.

Renters have the option of reaching out to the entire universe of donors, or just segments, like those who purchased merchandise or participated in contests on the Romney campaign, in hopes of generating greater return on investment.

In 2012, the Romney campaign, flush with cash, rented almost every GOP email list available so it could build its own list of contacts and donors, making it the most comprehensive collection of GOP emails, outstripping even the Republican National Committee according to industry sources.

“Email is king to online fundraising,” said Vincent Harris, whose firm Harris Media works for clients like Republican Sens. Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell. He added the Targeted Victory arrangement “brings about a big point that candidates don’t think of: who owns their data?”

Lira declined to say how much the NRSC has raised off the Romney list; the committee has been massively outraised by its Democratic counterpart.

The Romney approach differs from that used by Obama, whose campaign also maintains control of the his small-dollar donor and volunteer lists for the use of Organizing for Action, the nonprofit issue advocacy group he has thrown his name behind. Obama transferred his data and other lists to the Democratic National Committee.

While the Romney list remains fresh, don’t look to it as evidence that the two-time White House hopeful will make a third bid. The list has also been used by potential 2016 candidates like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Perry.