Obama Shouldn’t Forget His Most Important Constituency: The Midterm’s Nonvoters

Who's winning, who's losing, and why.
Nov. 6 2014 7:16 PM

Forget the Republican Mandate

Why the president could govern with the midterm election’s nonvoters in mind.​

Democrats lost the US Senate Majority.
President Obama walks away after his news conference in the White House a day after Democrats lost the Senate majority, Nov. 5, 2014. But this week’s election likely won’t define the end of Obama’s presidency.

Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, says the people have spoken. “The American people were given a choice to either accept the policies of the Democrat Party and the president or reject them,” Priebus declared at a press conference Wednesday. “And they wholeheartedly rejected those policies.” He continued:

It wasn’t just a rejection of Barack Obama. It was the embrace of the values of conservative governing. So I think that what is really necessary is for the president to come down to Capitol Hill and look through Harry Reid’s desk and figure out what of the 370 bills [passed by Republicans] he’s ready to work on. I don’t believe it’s incumbent on the Republicans to suddenly capitulate on something that the American people have been very loud and clear on, that they’re not buying what the president’s selling.

That’s the textbook theory of democracy: Elections deliver mandates. Politicians have to obey what the voters just said. But the theory is wrong. Politicians who remain in office don’t have to heed the last election. They just have to win the next one. And the electorate of 2016 could be very different from the electorate of 2014.

William Saletan William Saletan

Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right.

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In short, Democrats don’t have to spend the next two years sucking up to Republicans. They can focus instead on an agenda that will broaden the electorate on the left.

Ordinarily, this is dangerous. The further you move toward the fringe, the more you alienate the center. But Democrats have evidence that a mobilization strategy can pay off. In 2008 and 2012, they won by attracting millions of young, black, and Latino voters. In 2010 and 2014, with no presidential race on the ballot, many of those voters stayed home. 2016 is a presidential year, and the country will be less white than ever. The electorate could look more like the one from 2012 than like the one from 2014.

Latinos are an obvious example. In 2012 they accounted for 10 percent of the electorate. In 2014 they dropped to 8 percent. On Wednesday liberal and Latino groups released a survey of registered Latino voters, taken just before the election, in which some respondents said they weren’t going to vote. The nonvoters leaned Democratic by a wide margin. But when compared with those who planned to vote, they were significantly less likely to say that Democrats cared about Hispanics. “We think that these nonvoters can become voters in 2016,” said pollster Matt Barreto, who led the survey. “Many of these folks have presidential vote history. They participated in 2012. They participated in 2008.”

In his post-election press conference, Obama sent these 2014 nonvoters a signal:

To everyone who voted, I want you to know that I hear you. To the two-thirds of voters who chose not to participate in the process yesterday, I hear you, too. All of us have to give more Americans a reason to feel like the ground is stable beneath their feet, that the future is secure, that there’s a path for young people to succeed, and that folks here in Washington are concerned about them.

I hear you, too. That’s not what most of us learned in school. Our teachers said that if you want to be heard, you have to vote. But the president of the United States says otherwise.

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