On Thursday, more than 100 players became free agents, and a few dozen more could be granted free agency depending on the status of their contract options. Though the 2015 season is five months away, Monday represents a huge deadline: Teams will have to decide whether they want to offer their eligible free agents a $15.2 million qualifying offer that will protect them from receiving no compensation if a player decides to sign elsewhere.
A Big Prize
Sentimentality and sports do not often go well together, so what is a team to do when, shortly after winning the World Series, it suddenly has to decide how to handle the free agency of one of its most popular and productive players?
In the case of Pablo Sandoval, the third baseman of the San Francisco Giants, whose nickname, Kung Fu Panda, has inspired a huge percentage of the team’s merchandise, a tough decision looms.
In the spring, the Giants reportedly offered Sandoval a three-year, $40 million contract, which he rejected, and after he collected 26 postseason hits, and caught the final out of the World Series, he has made the decision that much harder.
“Look, we’ll do the best we can,” Larry Baer, the Giants’ chief executive, told reporters when asked about the situation. “And up till now, the best we can has been to secure our guys.”
A two-time All-Star with a .294 career batting average, Sandoval, 28, is an intriguing case because he has not performed at an elite level over the last several regular seasons and has the type of heavyset body that does not usually remain resilient.
The Boston Red Sox, a team that could pursue Sandoval aggressively in light of their needs at third base, wrote the blueprint for succeeding without sentimentality by letting Pedro Martinez walk after they won the World Series in 2004. Like Sandoval, Martinez was a colorful and popular player, but the Red Sox determined that paying top dollar would be unwise. The move worked out well for Boston, as Martinez managed 30 or more starts just once in his last five seasons.
If the Giants make a similar decision, their Panda-hatted fans may not be as accommodating as the Red Sox fans were about saying goodbye to their idol.
The Top Tier
Fourteen pitchers have each received contracts worth $100 million or more. Of that group, five were major disappointments, and another three have the potential to end up in that category. But history is unlikely to stop teams from handing out two or more $100 million deals before next season.
The right-hander Max Scherzer will probably earn the biggest payday. He made a $144 million bet on himself when he turned down the Detroit Tigers’ offer of a contract extension after his 2013 Cy Young season, and he appears to have won the bet. His 39-8 record over the last two seasons is impressive, but it is far more important that in 2014 he logged 2201/3 innings, striking out 252 batters, walking 63 and giving up only 18 home runs. That gave him a second season in which his Fielding Independent Pitching — an advanced statistic that attempts to simulate earned run average based on parameters pitchers actually control — was below 3.00.
Also entering the “my grandchildren will be wealthy” category is Jon Lester, a left-hander who split 2014 between the Boston Red Sox and the Oakland Athletics. About to be 31, Lester pitched more than 200 innings in six of the last seven seasons and was at the top of his game in 2014, recording a 2.46 E.R.A. while striking out 220 batters. He won two World Series rings with the Red Sox and has said he remains open to returning to Boston.
James Shields, the ace of the American League champion Kansas City Royals, is a wild card. Turning 33 in December, he has never reached the heights of his breakout 2011 season for Tampa Bay. But Shields has a history of durability and would make most teams better. His nickname, Big Game James, may be somewhat misleading: Shields has a 5.46 E.R.A. in 11 postseason appearances.
The two best hitters available are Victor Martinez and Hanley Ramirez. The safer bet is Martinez, who does not have a position but hit 32 home runs and struck out just 42 times last season. The red flags in his case are his age, 36 next season, and the fact the power appears to have been an aberration. He hit a combined 46 home runs from 2010 to 2013. Ramirez is a talented hitter, but he will be 31 next season and has played as many as 130 games just once in the last four seasons. Advanced defensive metrics show Ramirez has no business playing shortstop, but some team will probably overpay him, then hope he is suddenly durable and consistent.
Useful Cogs
Nelson Cruz ended up in limbo last year when a qualifying offer from Texas scared off other teams because they would lose a draft pick to the Rangers as compensation for signing him. Cruz’s season-ending suspension for his connection to the Biogenesis investigation also did not help. The Baltimore Orioles took a one-year gamble on his power potential and were rewarded with a major-league-leading 40 home runs. Any team expecting a repeat of that performance should note that Cruz hit just 14 home runs after he turned 34 on July 1 and hit .214 from June 1 to Aug. 31. In 2015, Cruz can be counted on to hit 25 to 30 home runs but could run into the same sticky situation as last year if the Orioles give him a qualifying offer.
For teams intrigued by Cruz’s power but wary of his age and inconsistent production, an alternative is Yasmani Tomas, the latest Cuban defector to enter the free-agent ranks. Aided mightily by the immediate success of Jose Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig, Tomas, who turns 24 this month, was one of the top hitters in Cuba. Baseball America rates Tomas’s power at 70 on a 20-to-80 scale, and he starred for Cuba in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. He would be a candidate for going straight to the majors.
It seems a little strange for Michael Cuddyer, the 2013 National League batting champion, to be in a second tier. But Cuddyer missed more than 100 games this year, will turn 36 before next season and owes a great deal of his success to playing his home games at Coors Field in Denver.
Several quality relievers are available. The best one is David Robertson, who was once considered a lock to return to the Yankees. That chance diminished when the team chose not to extend him before he had a full season as a closer under his belt. It grew even less likely when Dellin Betances, his setup man, outpitched him all season. Although he is no Mariano Rivera, Robertson is a top-shelf reliever who will command a lot of money from the Yankees or a team like the Detroit Tigers, who are looking to revamp their bullpen.
The next tier of available relievers includes those with experience closing games like Sergio Romo and Francisco Rodriguez. A safer bet for production worthy of a new contract may be Andrew Miller, a former top prospect, who thrived in a setup role for the Red Sox and the Orioles this season.
The Expendables
There comes a time for players when potential can no longer excuse a lack of production. A number of players appear to have hit that wall going into free agency this season.
It may finally be time to abandon the hope that Josh Johnson, the Toronto right-hander, can remain healthy. Johnson often dominated in the short stretches that he managed over the years, but he has started 30 or more games just three times in nine seasons, and various maladies seemed to catch up with him last season as he posted a 6.20 earned run average in 16 games.
Asdrubal Cabrera is another player who raised expectations, but he declined offensively in each of the last three seasons, making it harder to overlook his subpar defense at shortstop. Over the last two seasons, Cabrera has posted an on-base percentage of just .305, and he does not run enough or hit with enough power to justify that lack of patience.
For Colby Rasmus, it is time for him to deliver on his potential or get out of the way. Rasmus, 28, has a slash line of .236/.302/.430 over the last four seasons and does not do enough on defense to make up for his mild power and poor plate discipline. In a major indictment of his ability, the Blue Jays benched Rasmus toward the end of the season so they could look at their younger players.
In the category of “they should have seen this coming,” Jim Johnson saved a combined 101 games for the Orioles in 2012 and 2013 but seemed to be propped up by low-leverage situations. Last season, in 54 games split between Oakland and Detroit, he posted a 7.09 E.R.A. It would be hard not to improve on that, but it is a long road from where he is to regaining his usefulness.
And as painful as it is to say, Ichiro Suzuki, four years removed from his last season as a star, can no longer be considered a top free agent, or anything more than a brand-name bench player. Over his last four seasons, Suzuki has hit .275 with a .308 on-base percentage and .353 slugging percentage. Using the statistic adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage, Suzuki has been 14 percent below league average as a batter and is no longer a top defensive outfielder. Sitting 156 hits from 3,000 in the majors, Suzuki, 41, will probably accept another part-time role.
Saying Goodbye
A number of big-name players became free agents but are unlikely to return to the game.
If he lives up to his word, Adam Dunn, the designated hitter for the Oakland Athletics, will walk away from the game just 38 home runs short of 500 for his career. His numbers may never get him inducted in Cooperstown, but some special recognition should go his way for all of the rest he gave opposing fielders in his career: In 51 percent of his 8,328 plate appearances, Dunn struck out, walked, was hit by a pitch or hit a home run, leaving the fielders a chance to stretch their legs and get ready for the next batter. Dunn was 218 strikeouts short of tying Reggie Jackson for the career record, and this decision leaves no clear contender for taking Jackson’s dubious honor from him.
Joining Dunn in retirement will be Paul Konerko, who may have fallen just short of greatness but will be remembered for decades by loyal fans of the Chicago White Sox. A six-time All-Star with 439 home runs for his career, Konerko is so well respected that rumors flew in 2011 that the team was considering making him a player-manager. Unlike Dunn, who seems comfortable leaving the game, Konerko is the type of player one would expect to see coaching soon.
The legend of the right-hander Josh Beckett was always a bit larger than the person, but he earned two World Series rings, one World Series Most Valuable Player award, three All-Star appearances and a no-hitter. Given his strong opinions on the unwritten rules of baseball, a broadcasting career would seem a good fit.
Raul Ibanez made friends everywhere he went and had a postseason to remember for the 2012 Yankees, but he appears ready to end his playing career after 19 seasons. Despite not reaching 500 at-bats in a season until he was 31, Ibanez hit 305 home runs and has been said to be considering a return to the Yankees as a hitting coach.
Once a doubles machine and a major threat to steal a base, Brian Roberts, the longtime Baltimore Orioles second baseman who spent part of 2014 with the Yankees, has announced his intention to retire. Roberts, who recently turned 37, was hampered by injuries that limited him to 283 games over the last five seasons.
An earlier version of this article misstated the number of months until the 2015 season begins. It is five months, not six.