Polls typically ask people which candidate they want to win. But some researchers have come to believe that another question — which candidate voters expect to win — produces more meaningful results.
When people are asked about their expectations, some may actually give more honest answers about their own voting intentions, rather than naming a candidate who briefly intrigues them. The expectation question also taps into the accumulated knowledge each poll respondent has, about friends, relatives and co-workers. It’s another potential example of the wisdom of crowds, as the writer James Surowiecki titled his book on the subject.
The latest round of a New York Times/CBS News/YouGov poll, surveying nearly 100,000 respondents online, asked the expectation question for dozens of Senate and governor’s races. And the results were different from those in traditional polls in some important ways.
Perhaps most notably, Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas, an incumbent Republican, appears to be in considerably stronger shape than many polls have suggested. Although most polls show either a dead heat or a small lead for the independent challenger, Greg Orman, vastly more Kansans (50 percent) expect a Roberts victory than an Orman victory (25 percent), according to YouGov.
A sizable number of Kansas residents also said they did not have a prediction, as is common with the expectation question.
Beyond Kansas, Republicans lead in more than enough races to win control of the Senate, although the margins are often small. A larger number of likely voters in Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa and South Dakota, among other states, expect the Republican candidate to win. More likely voters expect the Democrat to win in Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Over all, the expectation question suggests that if Republican leads hold, they are likely to have 52 or 53 seats in the Senate next year.
The campaign still has more than a week remaining, and the expectation question is obviously not perfect. When answering, many people may be affected by news media coverage that has also suggested the Republicans are favored to win the Senate — and could be wrong if the traditional polls are misleading. Democrats are hoping that their efforts to turn out voters, including new voters and those who have previously skipped midterm elections, will allow them to win at least a couple of upsets and tossup races.
Which Candidates Do Voters Expect to Win?
Academic research suggests that asking voters which candidate they think will win may provide a better preview of election results than asking which candidate voters want to win. The leading candidate in each state is shown here, with Republicans in red.
But the expectation question does have an impressive record.
Over the last 60 years, it has been a better guide to the outcome of presidential races than questions on whom people planned to vote for, according to a 2012 study by Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan and David Rothschild of Microsoft Research. (Mr. Wolfers has since become a contributor to The New York Times.) The expectation question pointed to the winner in 81 percent of states between 1952 and 2008. The question about voting intentions pointed to the winner in 69 percent.
Asking about expectations, Mr. Rothschild said, allows pollsters effectively to interview “not just the respondents, but a random selection of their social network.”
In 2004, for example, many polls told a confusing story about whether President George W. Bush would win re-election or lose to Senator John Kerry. The expectation question, when asked, consistently pointed to a win by Mr. Bush.
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The 2012 Republican primaries offered a particularly stark example. A parade of candidates — Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Perry — led Mitt Romney at various points when pollsters asked primary voters about their intentions. But those voters typically said that they expected Mr. Romney to win the nomination, as he did.
The YouGov survey asked about governor’s and Senate races, and found a clear advantage for some candidates even in states where the polls are close. In Wisconsin, 52 percent of likely voters said they expected Gov. Scott Walker to win re-election, compared with 24 percent who expected a victory by Mary Burke, his Democratic challenger.
Republican candidates for governor also had significant advantages in Georgia and Kansas. In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican, had a small advantage, as did Gov. Paul R. LePage of Maine, also a Republican incumbent. Democratic incumbents held larger advantages in Colorado, Connecticut and Illinois, while Gina Raimondo, a Rhode Island Democrat who is now state treasurer, is also widely expected to win.
One issue is whether the expectation question favors incumbents, given that they are usually re-elected. There is no historical evidence of such a pattern, the researchers said, but pollsters have asked the expectation question much less often than the traditional question.
Mr. Rothschild said the increasing popularity of the expectation question would allow researchers to learn more about its pluses and minuses.
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