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The shape of a violin has evolved throughout its 450-year history, but a new paper by a scientist who analyzed more than 4,000 historical violins shows just how much its form was influenced by the 17th-century master luthier Antonio Stradivari.

The study, published in the open-access journal PLOS ONE, was written by Dan Chitwood, a self-described “lapsed violist” who is a researcher at the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center in St. Louis, Mo.

For his research into the architecture of plant species, Dr. Chitwood often relies on statistical techniques that allow a researcher to quantify a shape and then compare it to others. He wondered if he could use the same method to understand how the shape of string instruments has changed over time.

For $150, he obtained access to a fine instrument auction database called the Cozio Archive, containing front and back photographs of 9,000 string instruments — including more than 400 violins by Stradivari, which have sold for as much as $16 million at auction.

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The Shape of Violins Over Time

Modern violins generally

have a broader body,

especially in the “lower”

and “center bout,” and

more defined corners.

The chart below plots individual violins in the year they were made

and according to a statistical analysis of their relative shapes. The

baseline represents the average shape for all of the violins studied.

Violins above that line tend toward shapes like those of the Brescian

and early Cremonese designs. Values below tend toward modern,

Stradivari-like designs.

Violins by named luthiers in red:

LUPOT AND

VUILLAUME

BRESCIAN AND EARLY

CREMONESE DESIGNS

MAGGINI

STRADIVARI

OVERALL AVERAGE

Violins by other

luthiers in gray

Corners

MODERN, STRADIVARI-

INSPIRED DESIGNS

1560

1600

1700

1800

1900

1989

“Lower

bout”

“Center

bout”

In Brescia, Italy, Giovanni Maggini helped pioneer the modern violin.

Many of the violins made by Antonio Stradivari were unlike the Brescian designs. A century later, Nicolas Lupot and Jean-Baptiste Vuillaume meticulously copied and popularized Stradivari’s models.

Most modern violins resemble Stradivaris.

The chart below plots individual violins in the year they were made and according to a statistical analysis of their relative shapes. The baseline represents the average shape for all of the violins studied. Violins above that line tend toward shapes like those of the Brescian and early Cremonese designs. Values below tend toward modern, Stradivari-like designs.

Violins by named luthiers in red:

LUPOT AND

VUILLAUME

MAGGINI

STRADIVARI

Violins by other

luthiers in gray

1560

1600

1700

1800

1900

1989

BRESCIAN

AND EARLY

CREMONESE

DESIGNS

MODERN,

STRADIVARI-

INSPIRED

DESIGNS

BASELINE

In Brescia, Italy, Giovanni Maggini helped pioneer the modern violin. Many of the violins made by Antonio Stradivari were unlike the Brescian designs. A century later, Nicolas Lupot and Jean-Baptiste Vuillaume meticulously copied and popularized Stradivari’s models. Most modern violins resemble Stradivaris.

Dr. Chitwood said that a violin’s shape affects its sound far less than other attributes — like the varnish and the properties of the wood — although this hasn’t stopped luthiers from putting their own creative stamp on the instrument’s form. In this way, Mr. Chitwood pointed out, the shape of a violin is much like a neutral trait in genetics, which scientists may sometimes use to trace the path of evolution.

In the case of violins, that evolution began in Brescia, Italy, in the late 16th and early 17th centuries, where masters like Giovanni Paolo Maggini helped pioneer the design of violins. But the shape of these early violins — narrow bodies and rounded corners — would not dictate those of future instruments.

That honor went to Stradivari, who worked in Cremona, Italy, in the 17th and 18th centuries. He was the first luthier in Mr. Chitwood’s sample to produce a broader body style and more defined corners. Although Stradivari’s work was highly respected during his lifetime, his influence did not become dominant until the 19th century, when Parisian luthiers like Nicolas Lupot and Jean-Baptiste Vuillaume set out to copy his work.

“Lupot and Vuillaume thought in their hearts that Stradivaris were the best instruments ever,” Dr. Chitwood said. “They dedicated their lives to figuring out things like the family secrets for the varnish and trying to find the right wood types that matched his. And of course they thought that shape was important.”

He added: “As a result, Stradivari came to dominate our public perception of violins.”

Of course that dominance might only be a quirk of history. In well-publicized studies, many professional violinists have been unable to tell apart Stradivaris and modern violins during blind experiments.