Why Karl Rove May Have Been the Biggest Winner on Election Night

Who's winning, who's losing, and why.
Nov. 5 2014 10:16 AM

Political Dividends

The elections are over. Who are the super PACs, politicians, and funders who got the best bang for their buck?

Karl Rove.
Karl Rove, one of Tuesday’s biggest winners.

Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Republican candidates wagered that big bucks from outside political groups could overcome their own fundraising shortfalls ahead of the 2014 midterm elections.

They were right. On Tuesday night, Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate for the first time in eight years.

In many of the states the GOP won Tuesday, Republican candidates themselves didn’t primarily execute what proved to be a wildly successful strategy of linking Democratic candidates—from Colorado to North Carolina—to an increasingly unpopular President Barack Obama.

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Instead, deep-pocketed conservative groups—including a cluster of groups tied to Republican strategist Karl Rove and a network of groups backed by billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch—together sponsored hundreds of thousands of TV ads that relentlessly attacked Democrats for their ties to Obama.

The prominence in 2014 of nonparty groups such as super PACs and politically active nonprofits underscores the way election funding has changed since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission ruling in 2010.

Democrats, who enjoyed a six-seat Senate majority going into Election Day, attempted to defend themselves from an expected Republican onslaught. Numerous incumbent Democrats outraised their GOP rivals, and liberal donors dug deep to support a pro-Democratic super PAC—Senate Majority PAC—that became the top sponsor of Senate-focused campaign ads this election cycle. Democrats even dabbled in so-called dark money through secretive nonprofit groups, such as Patriot Majority USA, that don’t disclose their donors.

But it wasn’t enough. Republicans are now predicted to control at least 52 U.S. Senate seats next year.

“When the outside money comes in in substantial amounts, you don’t have to make any choices,” Norman Ornstein, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said about Republicans’ midterm resources.

Had Republican candidates been left to their own, Ornstein continued, “my guess is you would not have seen nearly as much money going into places like Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire—even Alaska.”

Groups connected to Rove and the Koch brothers were among the biggest winners in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Of the 10 U.S. Senate races where either the Rove-linked nonprofit Crossroads GPS or its sister super PAC, American Crossroads, was active, their favored candidates prevailed in at least six—with the Alaska Senate race still too close to call at this writing and a runoff election coming next month in Louisiana. Similarly, of the nine U.S. Senate races where the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity was active, its favored candidates also prevailed in at least five contests. Only in New Hampshire and Michigan did the Crossroads groups and Americans for Prosperity see defeat.

In the Granite State, incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen kept Republican challenger Scott Brown, who previously represented Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate, at bay. And in Michigan, Rep. Gary Peters defeated former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land to win an open-seat race. As of press time, incumbent Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, was trailing GOP challenger Dan Sullivan, the state’s former attorney general and natural resources commissioner, by about four percentage points.

Ultimately, the current occupant of the White House decided the 2014 election, said Steven Law, president of American Crossroads. “This election was about President Obama,” Law said in a statement. Levi Russell, a spokesman for Americans for Prosperity, did not respond to requests for comment.

In a marked contrast from the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats, too, embraced the post–Citizens United world of big-money politics, even while they continued to bemoan it. That high court decision allowed corporations, including certain classes of nonprofit corporations, to spend funds to expressly advocate for the election or defeat of federal candidates. The decision also paved the way for super PACs, which may accept unlimited contributions but must disclose their funders.