WASHINGTON — It is a recipe for sensory overload: Election returns will start flooding every device and screen Tuesday evening, capturing the outcomes of 36 governors’ contests, the battle for control of the Senate, nearly 50 competitive House races and countless ballot questions.
Some trends are clear: A big night is expected for Republicans, a dreary one for Democrats.
But some mysteries and many intriguing questions remain, and their answers will emerge throughout the evening. Here is a guide to what to watch for on election night, and how to cut through the cacophony.
How big of a win will this be for Republicans?
To gauge Republican strength, watch the Senate races in states that President Obama won in 2008 or 2012. If Republicans, who need to pick up six seats to gain the Senate majority, win in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina, they are all but certain to take control. If they lose them all or split them, the fate of the Senate may not be known for some time. That is because the Louisiana and Georgia contests could go to runoffs (Louisiana in December, Georgia in January) and the results of the Alaska race may not be known for at least another day.
What do the results tell us about the 2016 presidential race?
It can be dangerous to extrapolate too much from midterm elections. But the two parties are eyeing key state races for clues about their presidential leanings.
Republicans are closely watching Colorado, where Senator Mark Udall and Gov. John W. Hickenlooper, both Democrats, are in danger of losing. Mr. Obama won the state twice, and with a younger, increasingly progressive population, Colorado has been trending Democratic. If Representative Cory Gardner can defeat Mr. Udall, who made his campaign almost exclusively about abortion rights and contraception, it will demonstrate that Republicans still have strength in a state that could be essential to regaining the presidency.
Democrats are hoping their Georgia candidates, Michelle Nunn for the Senate and Jason Carter for governor, can either win or at least post strong showings. Of the states that the two parties did not compete for in the 2012 presidential race, Georgia was the closest (Mr. Obama lost by seven points), and it is gradually becoming more of a polyglot hub than an Old South vestige. If Ms. Nunn or Mr. Carter wins or loses narrowly while drawing less than 30 percent of the white vote, it suggests that Georgia will be a competitive presidential state sooner than many observers expected.
Do the Clintons still have their magic?
With Mr. Obama largely sidelined because of unpopularity, Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton became their party’s most in-demand figures on the campaign trail. Between them, they visited 25 states for more than 30 Democratic candidates. Yet some of the candidates they care most about are in peril: Mr. Clinton visited his native Arkansas three times in the campaign’s final month, but his longtime friends running for governor (Mike Ross) and senator (Mark Pryor, the incumbent) are both underdogs. So is Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democrat challenging Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Ms. Grimes’s family has been close to the Clintons for over two decades, but there is only so much that Clinton-centered rallies, fund-raisers and commercials in these Republican-tilting states can do — raising the question of whether Mrs. Clinton, if she runs for the White House in 2016, will try to compete in states that backed her husband for president but embraced Republicans during the Obama years.
What can be gleaned from the House races?
There are fewer than 50 truly competitive House races, and the only mystery is whether the Republicans increase their already-sizable majority by more or fewer than 10 seats. But there are a handful of contests that could make a larger statement, particularly about whether voters who strongly favor one party in presidential races will elect candidates from the opposite party to the House. Is America on an inexorable road to a more polarized, nationalized style of politics? Watch Richard Tisei’s bid to become the first Republican from Massachusetts to be elected to the House in 20 years; Gwen Graham, the Democratic daughter of Bob Graham, a former governor-turned-senator, who is trying to oust a conservative Republican in Florida’s panhandle; and Nick J. Rahall II, a Democrat seeking his 20th term in West Virginia coal country, a historically Democratic region that has turned sharply Republican.
The Mind of the Undecided Voter
From Louisiana to Kansas, voters are still struggling to make up their minds about which candidates to vote for in the midterm elections Tuesday.
Video by The New York Times on Publish Date November 2, 2014.Will governors’ races mirror the congressional races?
Three governors’ races will play an outsize role in shaping the postelection narrative. Those are in Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Republican governors are locked in tight re-election contests in states that voted for Mr. Obama in 2012.
Democrats seem to have their best shot in Florida, where the state’s former Republican governor, Charlie Crist, is running as a Democrat against the Republican incumbent, Rick Scott. The polls also show up-in-the-air races in Michigan and Wisconsin, where the Republican incumbents, Rick Snyder and Scott Walker, appear to hold nominal leads.
If the Republicans lose one or two of these races, it will complicate what might otherwise be an impressive performance for them in governors’ contests nationwide. Republican governors in competitive states have no business losing in what should be a good year for the party.
Midterm Elections 2014
The latest news, analysis and election results for the 2014 midterm campaign.
What happens to the Obama coalition?
Every vote counts, of course, but some constituencies — especially those that made up Mr. Obama’s victories — will play a crucial role in shaping the outcomes on Tuesday.
Democrats will need to counter a strong Republican advantage with men by winning women by nearly as much. That might require an even larger gender gap in some states than the 18-point one in the 2012 presidential election. Democrats will also need a much stronger turnout among nonwhite voters than they received in 2010. Black turnout in Georgia and North Carolina will be especially important: Follow whether the black share of the electorate approaches or exceeds 2012, when blacks represented 23 percent of North Carolina voters and 30 percent in Georgia.
Who will get credit if Republicans win, and who deserves it?
A Republican victory will have a thousand fathers. As you watch the returns, watch for the “we-were-crucial” talking points as the evening wears on. Just a handful of those who will likely claim credit: the Republican National Committee, Senate Republicans, the Karl Rove-backed American Crossroads, groups aligned with the conservative Koch brothers, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky.
If Democrats hold the Senate, the biggest praise will not go to a person or committee, but to the party’s sophisticated turnout operation, which was vaunted after Mr. Obama’s 2012 win and will be all but politically canonized if they turn back the Republicans.