Dallas County’s elections administrator has lowered her estimate for turnout in Tuesday’s election, based on weaker-than-normal early voting and possible bad weather.
Toni Pippins-Poole said she had been expecting about 38 to 40 percent of Dallas County’s registered voters to cast ballots. Now, she said, a turnout of 35 to 37 percent is more likely. The turnout was 37 percent in 2010, the last time there was a gubernatorial race on the ballot.
A light turnout could be bad news for Democrats, who may need record-breaking numbers of new voters to be competitive statewide. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis has been working to cultivate new voters in her race against Republican Greg Abbott.
And in Dallas County, District Attorney Craig Watkins, a Democrat, faces what is expected to be a stout challenge from Republican Susan Hawk.
Increasingly in recent election cycles, Dallas County voters have tended to favor Democratic candidates.
The race for governor tops a crowded ballot. There are also statewide races for U.S. senator, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and comptroller. There’s a proposed state constitutional amendment to allocate more dollars for transportation projects.
Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, a Democrat, faces a challenge from Republican Ron Natinsky.
Voters in the city of Dallas are being asked to give hefty pay raises to future mayors and City Council members. If the city’s Proposition 8 passes, the annual salary for mayor would increase to $80,000 from the present $60,000. City Council members would get $60,000, up from the present $37,500.
In the 12-day early voting period that ended Friday, more than 188,000 people cast ballots in Dallas County. That’s down more than 10,000 votes, or 5.3 percent, from 2010, the year of the last gubernatorial election.
Of particular concern to Democrats is that the plunge in early voting was most pronounced in the southern part of the county, where minority voters — traditionally, solid supporters of Democratic candidates — are most concentrated.
The number of early votes cast south of Interstate 30 decreased by about 9 percent, from 79,051 in 2010 to 72,041 this year.
North of I-30, the drop-off was 3 percent, from 119,718 four years ago to 116,131 this year.
The declines are striking, given that the number of registered voters in the county has grown by about 100,000 since 2010.
Pippins-Poole said there were several possible explanations for the decline in early voting — too many for her to pinpoint a cause.
Maybe it had to do with voters’ perceptions of the quality of candidates, or a sense that the most significant races weren’t close. Democrats will probably blame the state’s new voter ID law, which was pushed by the Republican majority in the Texas Legislature.
And maybe more people just decided to wait until Election Day to vote. It’s possible, although unlikely, that turnout will not have gone down once Tuesday’s votes are added to the early ballots.
Weather could play a role on Tuesday. In North Texas, there’s a 20 percent chance of rain early in the morning, rising to 80 percent by early afternoon. The day will be overcast, with temperatures seldom exceeding the 60s.
“Across the area, we could see anywhere from three-fourths of an inch to an inch-and-a-half” of rain, said Lamont Bain, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Fort Worth. “Some isolated areas could float closer to 2 or 3 inches.”
Pippins-Poole said “we know historically” that foul weather dampens voters’ enthusiasm. That happened on Friday, the last day of early voting, when temperatures suddenly fell.
“People were saying, ‘It is too cold to stand in line,’” she said.
Follow Matthew Watkins on Twitter at @MWatkinsDMN.
