NFL Talkboard and Pick Six week nine: Pats to edge out Broncos

So here we are then, the midway point of the NFL regular season. Time to pause and reflect, asking big questions like: is this Arizona Cardinals team for real? Does anyone even want to win the NFC South? Could we really find ourselves watching the Bills and the Browns in the playoffs come January? And how on earth has ukboy successfully nailed six out of six predictions twice already in this year’s Pick Six contest when I can’t even do it once?

Hats off to him, though, as well as to Akpinbend, alpenvo, Bouncebounceprod and SmokeyMoose, each of whom also went six for six in week eight. Can you match them this time around?

San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

Six weeks into this season, San Diego were beginning to look like a dark horse candidate to win the AFC West. Two divisional losses later, they are back in the thick of what is shaping up to be a highly competitive Wild Card race. Miami are among their direct rivals, although they too have blown hot and cold – with confident wins over the Patriots and Bears offset by heavy losses to the Bills and Chiefs. On paper the Dolphins match up nicely against San Diego, with the league’s third-ranked pass defense well-equipped to slow down a Chargers offense that does its best work throwing the ball. But in the end, I just do not believe Miami are the better team.  

Chargers to win

Washington @ Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

At time of writing, Robert Griffin III is on course to make his comeback from injury against Minnesota. Is that good news for Washington, or bad? Colt McCoy did a pretty good job in leading this team to victory over Dallas on Monday Night Football but, even so, we probably ought not to get ahead of ourselves. For one thing, Washington have some significant history of backup quarterbacks achieving short-term success, only to then drop off rapidly. And for another thing, well, it’s Colt McCoy. Of course, the worst thing that could happen for head coach Jay Gruden would be for RG3 to start and play horribly, firing up a whole new quarterback controversy. So that is probably exactly what will happen.

Vikings to win

Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

Tough loss for the Eagles last week. It is tempting to say they were unlucky, having outplayed the Cardinals for long stretches, but the truth is that Philly were the authors of their own demise – their three turnovers allowing Arizona to hang around long enough to snatch a win. Only the Jaguars have coughed up possession more times than the Eagles this season, and Chip Kelly’s team now have a -7 give/take differential. Nick Foles and co can ill afford to be so generous against a Texans defense that has forced 17 turnovers already this season – the second-most in the league. But perhaps that loss in Arizona will provide a necessary wake-up call.

Eagles to win

Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

And what of Arizona, the only one-loss team left in the NFC? They travel to Dallas to take on a Cowboys team with whom they once shared a (lopsided) rivalry, back when both teams resided in the NFC East. All the focus heading into this game will be on Tony Romo, and his ability to play after suffering a fresh back injury during the Cowboys’ Monday night loss to Washington. Jerry Jones’s suggestion that the decision may come down to the player’s pain tolerance threshold was not wholly encouraging. And while Brandon Wheeden played well in relief of Romo against Washington, the Cowboys may need to throw the ball often against a Cardinals team that defends the run a lot better than it does the pass.

Cardinals to win

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots (Sunday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT)

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady could not have done a much better job of setting things up for the 16th head-to-head of their careers. Over the past month, both men have played to an exceptional level, with each throwing 14 touchdowns on the way to four consecutive victory. But while this game only counts the same as all the others in win column, both protagonists know it matters more. As Brady himself put it, “You wait a year to play this game.” It is actually just nine months since they last met, Manning’s Broncos prevailing in the AFC Championship Game. Denver have got even stronger since, upgrading their defense with the acquisitions of Aqib Talib and DeMarcus Ware but also the return from injury of Von Miller, Rahim Moore and Chris Harris Jr. But they are playing this time in New England, not Denver. In what should be a game of extremely fine margins, I will take the home team.

Patriots to win

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 8.30pm ET/Monday 1.30am GMT)

The Ravens made light work of the Steelers when they met in Baltimore, although it is becoming increasingly hard to know what to expect from Pittsburgh on a week-to-week basis. This is a team that lost to Tampa Bay and then got shredded by the Browns, only to go and stick 51 points on Indianapolis. If they play to that level again, then the Ravens might not stand a chance, but the more likely scenario would see some degree of regression and a very close game at Heinz Field. Although Ben Roethlisberger threw for more than 500 yards against Indy, for me the key to this game will be the Steelers’ ability to get their typically reliable run game going against a Ravens defense that is giving up just 90.4 yards per game on the ground.

Ravens to win

And the rest

Here are the remainder of this weekend’s games. These are not included in the Pick Six, but feel free to post your winners for them as well. If you do so, please keep them separate from your Pick Six predictions, as it will make life a lot easier when adding up your scores.

Sunday

1pm ET/6pm GMT

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

4.05pm ET/9.05pm GMT

St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT

Oakland Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks

Monday

8.30pm ET/Tuesday 1.30am GMT

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants

(Bye weeks: Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans)