A Metroscopia poll published in Spanish daily El Pais on Sunday shows leftwing party Podemos ahead of both the centre-right governing People’s Party (PP) and the main opposition socialists, the PSOE.
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) November 2, 2014#Spain: PODEMOS overtakes both PP and PSOE in latest Metroscopia/El Pais poll http://t.co/TV8DqgzDPX pic.twitter.com/ykk4r6PLO2
The news is remarkable for at least three reasons:
1. the party was only founded in January of this year, with the goal of translating Spain’s indignados protest movement into a more structured citizen-led political formation.
2. in May, the party won 8% of the vote, securing five MEPs, in the European Parliament elections. Support has since consistently grown, and according to this poll at least, has increased three-fold since the EU vote.
3. this is just one poll (the latest CIS poll also has Podemos considerably up, but still in third spot), and the figure cannot be disentangled from the backdrop of political scandals, and allegations of corruption, that have recently hit Spain’s main parties. That aside, Spain’s two main parties won nearly 75% of the vote at the last general election in 2011. This was also pretty much the lower-end of the combined PSOE-PP support in all previous elections held since the 1990s after the People’s Alliance was re-founded as the People’s Party. In several of these elections the combined score was above 80%.
The two parties combined are now often polling below 55%.
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) August 31, 2014#Spain’s two main parties, PP and PSOE, were on a combined ≈80% up until 2011. Now on about 50-55% pic.twitter.com/zC3z9OhWZG
The fall of mainstream parties, which for decades dominated national elections in their respective countries, isn’t a phenomenon unique to Spain.
In Greece, from 1981 to 2012, PASOK and New Democracy (ND) monopolised Greek elections, with the two taking 70-85% of votes. Centre-left PASOK is now hovering around 5%. The two main parties are on a combined 35% in recent polls. Far-left SYRIZA, won the largest share of the vote in May’s EU elections (ND and PASOK combined got 31%), has led polls since - and may well lead the next Greek government when elections are eventually called.
In Britain, the Conservatives and Labour are polling on a combined 60-65%. In the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, the two parties are on 59%.
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) November 3, 2014Full voting intention with changes in this week's ANP: pic.twitter.com/JMyToDcP36
While this isn’t the first time this has happened (the combined Labour and Conservative share of the polling dropped to similar levels during the Liberal Democrat surge following the televised debates in 2010), the trend is clear:
— James Kirkup (@jameskirkup) November 3, 2014The end of the parties: combined Conservative-Labour vote share from 1945 to today's @LordAshcroft poll. pic.twitter.com/9qvioCRt2u
In May’s European elections in France, the far-right Front National emerged as the largest party in the country, winning 25% of the vote and topping a nationwide vote for the first time ever. In September, the party’s leader Marine Le Pen was ahead of president François Hollande in a poll on a hypothetical presidential runoff. Again, this was the first time ever a FN candidate topped a presidential poll against one of France’s two main parties. The FN isn’t a new party of course, but the level and distribution of support it’s receiving is unprecedented.
At the last Austrian general election, the country’s two main parties, the centre-left SPÖ and the centre-right ÖVP, won 51% of the vote - their lowest ever combined score. NEOS, a recently launched liberal party, won 5% of the vote and nine seats. The party confirmed its strong result at the recent EU elections, returning an MEP.
And, who can forget Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement winning 25.5% of the vote in Italy’s 2013 general election? The combined centre-left and centre-right share of the vote was less than 60% - in 2008 it had been 84.5%.
The list could go on.
Why is this?
A trend common to the above countries is a fall in the level of trust in politics. A recent poll by YouGov found that only 10% of voters believe that British politicians are out to do their best for their country. In 1972 the figure was 28%.
— YouGov (@YouGov) October 29, 2014Political disaffection is not new, but it is rising and driving UKIP support - http://t.co/9Hp3JDIDd4 pic.twitter.com/K82OZW1L4i
There is constant talk about Labour leader Ed Miliband’s poor ratings - and they are indeed very low - but at the same time most polls show that “none of the above” is consistently Britain’s most popular politician.
In France, François Hollande is the most unpopular president in the history of the Fifth Republic.
— TNS Sofres (@TNS_Sofres) November 6, 2014[Infographie] Les cotes de confiance comparées des Présidents depuis 1984 #DirectPR #Hollande http://t.co/YiWiRhsAkh pic.twitter.com/xph0vZNSnv
In countries where trust in politicians and parties is high, historical mainstream parties, as a whole (the collapse of liberals FDP in Germany is linked to different reasons) have not seen a systemic collapse in their support:
— electionista (@electionista) August 29, 2014Germany - Infratest dimap poll: 59% satisfied with government - a record high; 74% satisfied with Chancellor Merkel - highest since 2007
In addition to the rise of new parties, a further consequence of the erosion of trust in traditional parties has been a drop in voter turnout. Across the EU turnout has been steadily falling since the 1980s.
This trend too is less evident in countries where there is greater trust in politics.
— International IDEA (@Int_IDEA) September 14, 2014#SwedishElections this weekend: What will #VoterTurnout be for 2014? pic.twitter.com/0uFX6u4VZm
The overall implication of all this is a greater fragmentation of many countries’ party political systems. The UK is a good example of this. While membership of the main parties is falling, membership of both Ukip and the Greens is growing, as is membership of the Scottish National Party (SNP), which according to recent polls may all but wipe out Labour’s seats in Scotland at next year’s election. In short, a two-three party system is en route to potentially becoming a political landscape shaped by five-six parties.
It’s hard to say if these trends will continue, and if parties and participatory movements like Podemos and the Five Star Movement will be able to sustain their current levels of support over time, or if they will exist at all ten years from now. Part of their success is contingent to recent events, such as the economic crisis or scandals engulfing mainstream parties. Yet, the fall in trust in politics has been occurring for some time now as evidenced by the drops in voter turnout, and is a trend that shows little sign of being reversed anytime soon.
What happens next will really depend on how traditional parties address the trust issue. And, on the ability of these new parties to organise as credible political alternatives capable of providing answers to the concerns that voters feel they’ve been let down on - and, above all, gaining voters’ trust.
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