Get some coffee or some Vitaminwater, because it’s going to be one of the most dramatic election nights in a long time.
It might also be one of the longest.
The Republicans could win decisively and pick up as many as nine or 10 seats.
But that won’t mean you will be in bed by midnight, content in knowing who controls the Senate. Because of the Democratic advantage in early voting, Democrats in Kansas, Iowa, Arkansas and North Carolina, decisive battleground states, could easily jump out to early leads.
That would give even a Republican landslide the added drama of an apparent come-from-behind victory. But there may not be a decision Tuesday in the fight for Senate control. A likely runoff in Louisiana, a possible runoff in Georgia, along with a slow count in Alaska, will make it very hard for Republicans to win outright on election night. If the Republicans can’t win the 50 percent necessary to avoid a runoff in Georgia, they would probably need to sweep Arkansas, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and Colorado to win before the votes are counted in Alaska. Even if they do win by enough to claim the Senate on election night, victories in Iowa and Colorado might not come until after midnight. (For simplicity, all times given here are Eastern Standard Time.)
Here’s how the night will probably go.
The first poll closings occur in eastern Kentucky at 6 p.m. and across the rest of the state by 7 p.m. Don’t be surprised if Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democrat, starts out with an early lead. Louisville’s Jefferson County, expected to vote for Ms. Grimes by a large margin, often counts quickly. Nonetheless, the state counts its votes very fast; nearly all will be counted by 10 p.m.
Polls in what could be the most agonizingly close-call states of the night, North Carolina and Georgia, will close at 7:30 p.m..
The Democratic senator in North Carolina, Kay Hagan, will most likely jump out to an early lead. Many — though not all — counties in the state tally disproportionately Democratic-leaning early vote ballots soon after the polls close.
In North Carolina — as well as other states with a significant, unrepresentative early vote — it is best to ignore the early tabulated vote count. Instead, focus on the counties that have completed counting their votes, and compare those results with past close elections. The race should be extremely close, but most of the votes should be counted by 11 p.m. — around when a winner might be called, if one can be.
The situation is likely to be reversed in Georgia, where the Republican, David Perdue, will probably jump out to an early lead as the state’s Republican-leaning rural counties quickly count ballots. The Democrat, Michelle Nunn, will slowly whittle Mr. Perdue’s lead away as the Atlanta area reports. The question will be whether Atlanta keeps Mr. Perdue under the 50 percent necessary to force a runoff, and then whether Ms. Nunn can hit 50 herself. Do not expect a quick decision, despite the state’s early poll closings; only 80 percent of the vote might be counted by 11 p.m.
New Hampshire closes at 8 p.m., and it might give us our earliest sense of whether a Republican wave is building. The state does not have unrestricted early voting, and the state reports by town, which should allow us to have a larger share of jurisdictions with completed counts.
Arkansas closes at 8:30 p.m., and it’s another state where Democrats traditionally fare well in early voting. It’s also a state where it can take a long time to count the vote. If the race is fairly close, Mark Pryor, the Democrat, could lead for hours. In 2012, only 80 percent of the vote was counted by midnight.
The story is very similar in Kansas, where the polls close at 9 p.m. Democratic votes will come early, and 80 percent of the vote won’t be reported until around 1 a.m.
Louisiana also closes at 9 p.m. The race there is almost certainly going to a December runoff.
Our first real sense of where the night is heading might come just after 9 p.m., when the polls close in Colorado. Many counties will quickly count a significant number of mail-in votes, and these ballots will be fairly representative of the overall count. If one side is going to win by a few points, we could have a good idea by 10. But if you are thinking you’ll be able to go to bed then, put the pillow away. When the race in Colorado looks to be within one or two points, the networks might not even dare make a call until the next day. Despite the state’s fast start, just 80 percent of the vote was counted by midnight in 2012, and only 90 percent by 6 a.m. In 2010, Senator Michael Bennet’s 1.4-point victory wasn’t called until the next day.
This caution in Colorado is fairly justified, especially if the Republicans have a narrow lead. President Obama won 60 percent of 125,000 ballots that were counted after The Associated Press said that 100 percent of precincts had reported.
The single most dramatic contest of the night might be Iowa. The first returns will disproportionately include Democratic-leaning early ballots, and Bruce Braley could hold a lead for hours even if Joni Ernst goes on to win by a slight margin. Eighty percent of the vote won’t be counted until midnight; a projection probably won’t come earlier unless Ms. Ernst wins by a clear margin.
Last but not least will be Alaska. Unless it’s a blowout, we probably won’t know the outcome on election night. It could be decisive for calling Senate control. The polls finish closing across the state at 1 a.m., and 70 percent of the vote will be counted by around 4 a.m.
At that point, however, the pace of returns will slow to a crawl. Seventy percent of the vote is usually enough for the networks to make a call in a modestly close race. But that won’t be true in Alaska, where The A.P. returns are tabulated on a statewide basis, not by county. It could take days or even weeks for the rest of the vote from the state’s outlying areas to report.
Well, we weren’t planning to sleep. So keep checking in with us.