Early Voting Analysis
There’s so much to be interested in when the polls close on Tuesday, especially if you live in Denton. With 2 citizen-initiated ballot initiatives (one on fracking and one on alcohol) and a series of city bond initiatives, there’s a lot to pay attention to for what is typically a run-of-the-mill midterm election in Texas.
There’s a bunch of talk about historic voter turnout in this election and already people are pointing to local issues, particularly the initiative to ban fracking, as a reason for this. It is too early to tell the ultimate turnout and clearly too early and simple to point to a particular issue on the ballot. Keep in mind, there is also a Governor’s race at the top of the ticket and this is the first open-seat Governor’s race in Texas since Ann Richards battled Clayton Williams for the open seat in 1990. Bush v Richards in 1994 was arguably another energizing race (even though an incumbent was on the ticket). All this to say, judging turnout of this election vis-a-vis previous Governor’s races/midterm elections is not precisely the right way to analyze this. We know that Battleground Texas has been working the state for a significant amount of time to register voters and drive turnout. That, in turn, has resulted in an equally competitive ground game on the part of the Republicans. We may very well see an historic turnout, but it is likely to be the result of efforts at the top of the ticket, not necessarily city-specific issues.
There are a couple of things to look at after the results come in on election night that can shed light on this one way or another:
- Look for how the voter turnout % in Denton tracks with the turnout in Denton County and in the state as a whole. We can only safely say city-specific issues drove turnout in the event that the Denton voter turnout busts the curve statewide.
- Pay attention to the number of total voters in the city and compare that with the number of people who vote on the city-specific items. In such elections, there is predictable shrinkage from the top to the bottom of the ballot.
EARLY VOTING STATS
According to county records, 14,465 Denton city voters turned out to vote during the Early Voting period ending on October 31 (when I crunched that with the latest City of Denton voter database, the number shrunk to 14,117 and I haven’t spent the time to figure out the discrepancy). Compare that with 20,028 total voters (early and regular) from 2010 (the last Governor’s race – again, consider the above qualifications).
The average age of these voters is 51 – this more or less tracks with the 2010 demographics where the average age was 53.
There’s been much talk of the number of newly registered voters heading into this election. For my purposes, voters who have registered since May 1, 2014 (roughly 6 months prior to the registration deadline for this election) are counted as a newly registered voter. There have been 4509 of those new voters registering during that time. As of right now, only 919 of them have voted – that’s only 20% of them. The average age of all the newly registered voters is 29, but the average age of those who have showed up to vote so far is 32.
UNT was home to an early voting polling site. 1460 of the city of Denton early voters voted at UNT – that accounts for 10% of all the early voters in the city of Denton. The average age of those voting at UNT is 29. Over half of the 919 newly registered voters who early voted did so at this UNT site – 469 of them.
We won’t know until Tuesday night what percentage of total voters voted early, but the trend has been increasing in recent years. 64% of all 2012 voters from the city of Denton voted early in that election. If early voters account for 64% of this election’s total vote, we can expect to see 22,601 total voters after the polls close on Tuesday. That would only be slightly up from the 2010 total of 20,028 voters – not the historic voter turnout some are already claiming.
We will soon find out. Go vote if you aren’t counted as part of 14,465 of your fellow citizens who already have!
David vs. Goliath – Three Quarter Million Dollars to Fight Frack Ban
Nearly a quarter of a million dollars have been collected to date by opponents of the citizen-initiated ordinance to ban fracking in the city of Denton. Less than $1000 of that has come from citizens of Denton. That means that 99.85% of all the money coming in to fight the ban is coming from outside interests.
Sound familiar?
This is a quick video clip from the July 15 meeting in which the city council first considered the ordinance as presented by the citizens:
City Council Preview – October 28, 2014
Who said local government wasn’t sexy? We are set for a triple header of controversy at today’s council meeting where we will discuss fracking, flags, and a convention center. It all starts at 11:30am – you can find the full agenda here.
GAS WELL DISCUSSION
Because what happens at the polls on November 4 is beyond our control at this point, we continue to work to tighten up our existing ordinance. There are still many problems to address with fracking in our city, particularly as it relates to existing sites, and we are working on a number of amendments to our ordinance as we said we would do the last time we voted to extend the moratorium on all drilling activity in the city. Because this discussion involves consultation with our attorneys on legal matters relating to the ordinance, we will be having this discussion in Executive Session.
CONVENTION CENTER
The council will consider whether or not to agree to expend an additional $75,000 on additional design work for the Convention Center project. You might recall that the council has previously put further work or expenditures on this project on hold, pending certain information from our partners in the Master Development Agreement. There has been significant concern from several members of council on several aspects of this agreement up to this point. The question for us today, it seems, is whether or not the council feels this project has enough chance of life in order to justify continued expenditures.
FLAGS, FLAGS, and MORE FLAGS
If you have been paying attention this last week, you surely have gotten wind of the controversy surrounding enforcement of an ordinance relating to Frenchy’s flying of flags. It is hard to imagine a Denton without Frenchy, his orange trucks, his eccentricity, his love for our city, and his undeniable commitment to our nation, as evidenced by his own record of service and his constant work for our troops and our nation’s veterans. Perhaps the best part of my oldest daughter’s 6th birthday was seeing her name on one of his trucks. Frenchy is also a marketing genius, which is why it was inevitable that after receiving a notice of violation for flying too many flags, we’d soon see Frenchy in every publication and on every television station in the region. The downside to all this is that it has brought out all sorts of polarizing rhetoric. I can’t tell you how many emails I have received that have suggested I move to another country.
Council will be using this controversy as an opportunity to have a policy discussion relating to our sign policy. Let’s be clear on a few things. Every city has policies and ordinances relating to signs. Just about every one of these ordinances that I have researched also has policies and rules relating to flags. In general, there is likely widespread agreement about the need for such things – in a world where certain businesses depend on exposure and name recognition for their success, lack of regulations of any sort would result in an out-of-control sign race, each business fighting for the biggest, tallest, most visible, and highest number of signs possible. Remember, George Bailey’s confrontation with Pottersville in It’s a Wonderful Life? Much of the distinction in scenery between that fast and loose city and quaint Bedford Falls rested on the aesthetics of signage.
The very idea of a city regulating such things is not all that controversial. And the inclusion of flags in such ordinances is a part of all this. Each community must decide what they want their streetscape and landscape to look like and what standards are appropriate to that community. Several years ago, our community adopted standards that restrict the number of flags, governmental or not, that can be flown on a particular site.
This might sound crazy, but it is important to think through the consequences of any particular policy. To begin with, we are not alone in this. I received a very angry email from a gentleman in Argyle who was criticizing our city for daring to regulate the number of flags that can be flown on private property. Upon research of his own city’s ordinance, I discovered that Argyle also regulates flags in a similar way, limiting the number of flags per site to 3. Such regulations are not uncommon in cities.
But we also must understand that there is no way to write a law that allows one particular business to do one thing that doesn’t also allow every other business to do the same thing. My love for Frenchy and his obvious service to our city and country doesn’t justify creating a policy that exempts him from following the same rules as everyone else. That means that any change that allows him to continue to fly an unlimited number of flags will also require us to allow any other business to do the same. And if, at the end of the day, that is the will of our community, then that’s fine – these are essentially aesthetic standards and we need to decide what we want as a city.
But there may come a day, when a person or business far less patriotic wants to use flags, not as a display of patriotism, but as a cheap way to draw attention to themselves or their business. It is important to note that any ordinance we draft can’t attempt to ascertain the patriotism or motivations of the flag flyer. Some sleezy payday lender might decide to outfit their premise with 100 flags in order to standout from all the other corrupt loan shark outfits in town. Some frack site within 200 feet of a neighborhood might surround their site with 50 flags, lit up 24 hours a day, to express their opinion that such activity is the truly American way to combat terrorists in the Middle East. A change of policy that allows Frenchy to do his thing opens up the possibility of unintended consequences like this.
As a community, we need to decide what we want. As policy makers, we have to consider the universalizing effect of any ordinance we put in place. We simply can’t write and enact policy with an eye to one particular person or business in town. That is the discussion we will have. I think it is important that we all see the much more complex aspect to policies like this.
Need Feedback on Federal Funds for Denton – Give us ideas for projects!
Each year, the city of Denton gets a certain amount of federal funds from the Community Development Block Grant and the HOME Investment Partnership Grant. Unfortunately, because of tightening federal funds and politics in DC, these amounts have decreased significantly over the last few years (please contact your congressman). But in order to prioritize what we do get in the best possible way, we need the feedback of our community.
Please take this super quick survey from the city’s Community Development team to give them some feedback. Then make plans to attend one of these public hearings where you can pitch ideas for a federally funded project in Denton…
City Council Preview – October 14, 2014
The City Council meets on Tuesday, October 14 at 1:30pm for 2nd Tuesday Work Session on a variety of topics. Click here to see the full agenda and read on for my thoughts:
INNOVATION DISTRICT and TECH-BASED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Council will hear a presentation and discuss the possibility of creating an Innovation District to focus on innovative and tech-based entrepreneurs and companies. The council approved $220,000 in this year’s budget to begin looking at some of these things. Here’s a great primer on the Rise of Innovation Districts around the nation from the Brookings Institute.
DISCUSSION ON COUNCIL RULES OF PROCEDURE
Did you know that citizens are allowed only 3 minutes to speak on any given topic? Did you know that in order for citizens to comment on a topic on the Consent Agenda, they have to turn in a card and do it at the beginning of the afternoon worksession, and other such things? We’ll be discussing possible changes to the ways in which citizens engage with the city council during our meetings.
UPDATE ON HICKORY STREET PROJECT
We’ve been seeing a bunch of infrastructure work downtown on E. Hickory Street over the last several months. It will all culminate in a great Hickory Street corridor project between the train station and downtown Denton. No doubt, the downtown area continues to be thriving, but some of the businesses near the construction area have been concerned with accessibility and perception of customers. We’ll be discussing the timing of the project, what is being done to accommodate these businesses, and possible changes to the schedule.
DISCUSSION ON THE CONVENTION CENTER
We have two agenda topics devoted to this topic at today’s meeting: one during executive session. As we move closer to the date where we are contemplating the selling of bonds, the council will continue to discuss this issue on a near-weekly basis.
If you have any comments or questions on any of this, please contact me at 940-206-5239 or kevin.roden@cityofdenton.com.
UNT’s Sack n Save Acquisition Raises Serious Questions about Convention Center Viability
The news of UNT’s interest in acquiring the Sack ‘n Save at the corner of Ave C and I35 was met with a variety of concerns, some legitimate and some quite odd. Leave it to Denton to fight for the survival of an unattractive, 1970s-looking suburban-style grocery store in the name of “preserving Denton’s history and culture.”
But perhaps the real concerning aspect of this news was its timing, given the pending discussion of a possible city-owned Convention Center just across the highway. I’ve written extensively about the Convention Center. I’ve defending the project from detractors claiming the deal was made behind closed doors. I went out on a political limb to argue against putting the project before a city-wide vote. And I provided an economic analysis of the project that at once criticized the typical economic arguments and provided suggestions for new ways of thinking about its economic development possibilities.
In that article, two of the questions I threw out were seemingly soft balls right down the center of the plate for officials at the University of North Texas:
- How might the presence of this project spur significant redevelopment of the area directly across the highway? The entire area North to Eagle Drive, East to Carroll and West to Bonnie Brae is arguably ripe for major reinvestment and redevelopment. Are there related plans for this and how can this be added to the equation?
- What’s the economic impact of a major research institution to the city? Beyond its role as a major employer, how can it be leveraged to make Denton a hotbed of entrepreneurial activity and research-based business incubators? What, if any, impact does a Convention Center have on this?
I was hoping these questions would provide an opportunity for UNT to come to the table and help make the case publicly – after all, they are one of the major partners in this entire deal. Not only did UNT not come out to make the case, they go public IN THE MIDDLE OF FRAGILE COMMUNITY DISCUSSIONS on this project with their plans to acquire Sack ‘n Save and turn it into university property, using eminent domain if needed.
This is very important and in my mind threatens the very viability of the Convention Center project at that location. Here’s why…
The proposed location certainly benefits from the proximity to a major research university. The Denton community and UNT benefit from the potential redevelopment of the area between UNT and I35 – redevelopment that a high-end hotel and convention center could spark. But consider the following map:
UNT’s move to acquire Sack ‘n Save and, their comfort with using eminent domain to acquire it, signal that the university is not interested in collaborating with the community to develop this area, but rather to acquire it for the purpose of extending the university’s own borders all the way to I35. That does two things: 1) it takes away the redevelopment possibilities that such a project could spark along I35; and 2) it means that the hotel and city-owned convention center would be, for all intents and purposes, right in the middle of the campus of UNT.
And this is exactly what the 2013 UNT Master Plan envisions. In the lower right hand corner of the following proposed UNT map, you’ll see the area to the East and West of Ave C all the way to I35 redeveloped as UNT property:
And this is fine – it makes sense for the university to want to expand in this way. It just raises questions about whether or not the city needs to put a convention center in the middle of all this.
During the last council meeting as we struggled to find a financially feasible path for the project, I concluded my remarks with a challenge to UNT, as one of the three major partners in the deal, to reconsider increasing their own contribution to the project in order to make the deal work.
I haven’t yet heard any changes from them in this regard. Instead we get the news of Sack ‘n Save. We need to hear more from UNT if this project is to remain viable.
We Need Solutions, Not Political Hackery: A Response to the Chamber-inspired Fracking Mailing
If you voted in any election in the last four years, chances are you received one of these in your mailbox on Saturday. On August 21, the Denton Chamber of Commerce Board approved a resolution opposing the upcoming ballot initiative aimed at banning fracking in the city limits of Denton. Relying on an inaccurate and intentionally misleading industry-funded economic impact study, the Chamber choose to submit itself to the desires of out-of-town oil and gas lobbyists. Their apparently unreflected upon position is now being used as a piece of political hackery, resulting in division among their own membership and the citizenry at large.
Even worse, the industry lobbyists who the Chamber has willingly submitted to are already amassing teams of lawyers to unleash lawsuit upon lawsuit should the city of Denton do anything – either in the ballot box or in the council chambers – that they find cutting into their bottom line. They’ve been explicit – they are ready to make an example of Denton, even if that means attempting economic decimation through endless lawsuits. If this were the movie Braveheart, the industry is King Longshanks, the Denton citizens are the Scottish people, and it appears the Chamber is starting to resemble the Scottish nobility.
Despite the Chamber’s sudden interest in “responsible drilling” and the pursuit of “reasonable regulation,” I’ve never seen even one policy recommendation coming from this body during the 5 or so years our community has struggled with this issue. As I said in an open letter to the Chair of the Railroad Commissioner when he penned a letter of similar content to the Denton City Council, where have you been?
We are in need of solutions to very real problems.
Let’s make this very simple: the current legal, regulatory, and statutory situation allows for, and has resulted in, wells being drilled within 200 feet of existing neighborhoods. Is this an example of responsible drilling? If not, what are your specific policy or legal suggestions to fix this problem?
Despite numerous offers of help and claims that this can be fixed through “reasonable regulation” by industry, state, and local leaders, we have yet to see anyone coming to the table with a solution. It should be of no surprise that there is growing frustration among our citizenry. Without solutions, people who might have been advocates of the natural gas revolution two years ago now have good reasons to think their neighborhood could be the next to turn into an industrial drilling field.
Perhaps the biggest tragedy to all of this is the colossal waste of time, energy, and money the Chamber is spending on this effort to defend an industry that has virtually no economic impact on our city. Meanwhile, the people of our city are ushering in an entrepreneurial renaissance, a tech boom, and an explosion in social enterprise. Why aren’t we spending time nurturing these and moving our economy into the 21st century? Furthermore, our city has significant economic issues to address. 45% of our city’s kids need economic assistance to pay for lunch at school. 51% of our city’s single moms are below the poverty line. Our median household income is the lowest in the county and below the state average. Food stamp recipients have doubled in our city since 2007. What if our business leaders spent their time launching initiatives to tackle these problems instead of protecting the economic interests of the elite few among them?
Because of all this, I have written the Chamber asking that they remove me and my company from their membership roll. I continue to be ready and willing to work with anyone on either side of this debate to find meaningful and productive solutions, but I can’t lend financial support to the political hackery of an industry intent on harming my city.
City Council Preview – September 16, 2014
The City Council will meet at 3pm on Tuesday for a Work Session, followed by a 6:30pm Regular Session – both at City Hall at 215 E. McKinney Street. Click here for a full agenda online and look below for some highlights you may want to know.
TREE CODE, TREE FUND, and TREE TRUSTS
It ought to be well-established by now that a city full of trees is a good thing. It looks better, it is better for our air and our environment, and it means higher property values. How to incentivize developers to save trees and plant more of them has been a long-standing discussion in the city of Denton. Everybody seems to agree that changes are needed in our code in order to achieve our tree policies and goals. Last Fall, the council directed the Planning Department to proceed with plans to tackle this issue is 2014. We will receive an update on the progress as well as a timeline for the completion of the work. The staff report for this Work Session item has a great summary of the history of this discussion in Denton – see it here.
FINAL APPROVAL OF CITY BUDGET
The council has been discussing the city budget since early summer. For a recap on this discussion, check out all the info including previous presentations, budget timelines, and even a helpful video explaining the city budget on the city’s budget website. This website is the direct result of discussions between the city’s finance office and the Committee for Citizen Engagement. We agreed the city budget can be difficult to grasp and there needed to be more information presented in a more user-friendly format.
The General Fund (that which is funded mostly through sales and property taxes and is used to fund many of the things we expect from a city: libraries, police and fire, parks, etc.) is set at around $90 million and the entirety of the city budget (including utilities) is just about $900 million.
Here are some aspects of this year’s budget that I am proud to see:
- AVOIDANCE OF A 1 CENT TAX INCREASE: During last year’s budget talks, we forecasted the need for a 1 cent tax increase that would go into effect this coming fiscal year. Thanks to a stronger-than-anticipated revenue (property taxes, in particular) and solid financial planning, this has been avoided.
- INVESTMENT IN TECHNOLOGY and INNOVATION-FOCUSED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: It was less than a year ago that I highlighted the city’s lack of focus on this growing and important sector of our local economy. This budget includes $220,000 for our Economic Development office to invest in tech-focused entrepreneurial innovation in our city. We’ve come a long way since launching our Creative Economy initiative. Now everyone is talking about what high tech could mean for Denton. This is great.
- NEW TOOL TO MAKE IT EASIER TO START A BUSINESS IN DENTON: I’ve been attending the Code for America Summit since 2012. It’s a gathering of some of the greatest minds in technology who are targeting their talents toward improving the way city governments work. It’s sort of a Peace Corps for geeks. There I discovered a new tool called OpenCounter which aims to make it easier for small business owners to navigate the timeline, permits, and fee structures involved with doing business in a city. The city now plans to contract with this innovative technological company to help small business owners in Denton.
- BIKE AND PEDESTRIAN IMPLEMENTATION COORDINATOR: We have a great bike and pedestrian plan, we’ve funded it, now we need the right person to make sure we stay on task to meet our goals and implement our plan. This year’s budget includes the funding to hire such a person.
As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact me at kevin.roden@cityofdenton.com or 940-206-5239.
A Tale of Two Babies: a Reflection on Public Education
This is a re-post of an article I wrote a year ago in praise of teachers and public education. As we start the school year, it seems relevant once again…
It seems that during the same time I was nervously awaiting the birth of my third child last month, the rest of the world was eagerly standing vigil for another, more decidedly regal birth: Prince George of Cambridge. I took the opportunity to reflect upon this, wondering as I held little baby Pearl in my arms what it would be like to bear the responsibility of rearing a future King (or Queen, in my case).
What would be my priorities as a parent? What virtues would best lend themselves to ruling a country and how would I instill those? What type of education would be befitting a future ruler?
But a future ruler is precisely what I have in my arms. This is the ideal of democracy, of our commitment to self-rule – every citizen is a ruler. And the extent to which our little ones are properly reared toward this end, our democratic experiment thrives.
This is why our nation’s commitment to a public government was very quickly followed by a commitment to a public education, accessible to all. A healthy democracy requires an educated citizenry. In a day when teachers and public schools are criticized at every turn and the problems of public education lead many a politician, business leader, and arm chair educator to question its value, we would do well to pause and wonder at the ambitious task we have undertaken as a society: we will educate EVERYONE.
Whether you come to Kindergarten prepared or not, we will educate you. Whether you speak English or another language, we will educate you. Whether anyone has ever read you a book before, we will educate you. Whether you come to school with a full belly or you have not eaten since the school fed you yesterday, we will educate you. Whether you come from a loving family or from generations of abuse, we will educate you.
We do this because we understand that the future of our society depends on it. We are taking that which is good and true about our civilization and the civilizations around the world and transmitting it to the next generation. We do this because we have a robust view of the nature and possibilities of humans. Human greatness can be found in each of us, not just among the royals, aristocrats, or rich. We believe that education is the key to unlocking human potential and is the path whereby we learn just what it means to be human.
To the teachers, administrators, and school staff busily readying our Denton schools for a new year: thank you. You are helping us realize our unparalleled and monumental goal of educating all of our young citizens. The future of our civilization and the success of our American democracy is being worked out in your classroom every day.
To the rest of us: we’re in this game, too. The education of the young citizens of our city is all of our responsibility. Stay tuned later this week to hear about an ambitious project to help our public schools and to make sure no young Denton citizen falls through the cracks. We’ll ask you to join us as we change our city, one student at a time.
AND AN UPDATE ON THOSE TWO BABIES…
HELP NEEDED: Supplies for the SE Denton Back to School Fair
The MLK Center Advisory Board in partnership with the Denton Police Department, Fire Department, Parks and Recreation, and several others will host the annual Southeast Denton Back to School Fair on Saturday, August 23 at 10am at the MLK Center.
It is estimated that over 11,000 Denton kids are in need of some sort of assistance with beginning of the year school supplies: a backpack, pencils, notebooks, folders, crayons, and the like.
This is a problem we can solve. Bring a backpack and or supplies between now and Friday, August 22 to the MLK Center at 1300 Wilson Street and drop them off at the front desk. Thanks, Denton!
