Five things to look for in Tuesday’s debate, the last time the two will face each other directly before the November election for governor
Ethics, Ethics, Who’s Got Ethics?
Can Wendy Davis make the case that Greg Abbott protected the troubled Texas Enterprise Fund, which gave millions of taxpayer dollars to favored businesses without proper oversight? Davis’ attack on the fund is the latest front in her war to shake Abbott’s durable lead in the governor’s race. Abbott ruled that records, including formal applications for the money, had to be kept secret. An independent audit last week found that formal applications didn’t exist in some cases and that more than $200 million was doled out without proper evaluation or consistent criteria.
Abbott says he was just following the law in keeping records secret. But look for Davis to link the attorney general to the problem-plagued fund as a way of underscoring her message that Abbott has spent his political career protecting the wealthy and well-connected. Some of the fund’s beneficiaries include Abbott campaign donors. If she does question Abbott’s ethics, look for him to fire back with a corruption charge of his own. His political team believes he can neutralize her attacks by citing news reports that Davis voted on bills affecting her business as a member of the Fort Worth City Council and a state senator.
You’re Likeable Enough
In their first televised debate earlier this month, Abbott tried to stay largely above the fray. Davis assumed the underdog role as attacker. He projected the confident status of the frontrunner. The Abbott that voters saw was personable and likeable – qualities that his consultants believe will help reassure moderate voters. The Abbott strategy has been to avoid directly attacking Davis, instead letting political allies carry out that task. If Abbott goes at her directly in Tuesday’s debate, it jeopardizes his likeability quotient. But it could mean there’s concern that Davis’ aggressive campaigning against him might be making some headway.
Davis’ task Tuesday is tougher: How do you look likeable when you’re throwing rhetorical haymakers at your opponent? She likely has no choice. She will cite Abbott’s big-dollar donors, accuse him of being part of a network of political “insiders” in Austin and say he’s out of touch on issues affecting women. In a state where a generic Republican statewide candidate goes into a race with a lead, she must do more than give voters a reason to vote for her. She must peel away Abbott’s voters by giving them a reason to vote against him.
The Company You’re Keeping
One way to cast opponents in an unfavorable light is to compare them with somebody unpopular. Count on Abbott to invoke the name of President Obama and cast Davis as an Obama comrade in arms. The president’s not popular in Texas, according to polls. In their first debate, Abbott accused his Democratic opponent of wanting to bring Obamacare to Texas. And in a minute-long web ad entitled “The Obama-Davis Agenda,” Abbott’s campaign casts Davis as an Obama ally on the issues of gun control and federal pollution regulations.
For her part, look for Davis to tie Abbott to the billionaire Koch brothers, a favorite bugbear of Democrats. The Kochs have given Abbott campaign contributions and hosted him on their corporate jet. In their first debate, Davis doubled down on making unflattering comparisons by noting that Abbott’s opposition to expanding Medicaid means forgoing millions that will go to that state Texans love to hate on the West Coast. Abbott, she declared, “is California’s best friend in Texas.”
Issues Voters Care About
It’s not enough for political candidates to say what they’ve done. They need to say what they’ll do. And the issues that voters want politicians to do something about are education, highways and health care. Polls indicate nothing’s more important to Texas voters than public education. A state court has ruled that Texas is underfunding public schools by billions of dollars, leaving overcrowded classrooms and underpaid teachers. Davis has made that a big issue, saying she’s on the side of boosting public education while Abbott is defending $5.4 billion in budget cuts to schools.
Abbott, as attorney general, is appealing the judge’s ruling. He says he’ll improve education but without new money. Davis’ task will be to press Abbott to answer how he’d do that. For Abbott, the goal will be to reassure voters – especially suburban women and Hispanic voters with children – that he’s a friend of education while casting Davis as a spendthrift who might raise taxes.
Compelling Personal Narratives
Both candidates have compelling personal stories. Davis has written a biography detailing how she was a single mother living in a trailer who earned her way through Harvard Law School. Davis’ story came under criticism early in the campaign after she fudged some of the details, but she’s subsequently sought to correct the narrative. Abbott is a paraplegic as a result of an accident in which he was struck by a tree while jogging. Both have used their life stories as a metaphor for perseverance and beating the odds.
Personal stories make candidates seem human and help voters identify with those running for office. It’s incumbent on both candidates to highlight their own stories as a way of connecting with voters. Far from avoiding his physical problem, Abbott has featured himself in a wheelchair in campaign ads. Look for both Abbott and Davis to invoke the difficult challenges they’ve faced as a way of appealing to voters.