Early Voting Analysis
There’s so much to be interested in when the polls close on Tuesday, especially if you live in Denton. With 2 citizen-initiated ballot initiatives (one on fracking and one on alcohol) and a series of city bond initiatives, there’s a lot to pay attention to for what is typically a run-of-the-mill midterm election in Texas.
There’s a bunch of talk about historic voter turnout in this election and already people are pointing to local issues, particularly the initiative to ban fracking, as a reason for this. It is too early to tell the ultimate turnout and clearly too early and simple to point to a particular issue on the ballot. Keep in mind, there is also a Governor’s race at the top of the ticket and this is the first open-seat Governor’s race in Texas since Ann Richards battled Clayton Williams for the open seat in 1990. Bush v Richards in 1994 was arguably another energizing race (even though an incumbent was on the ticket). All this to say, judging turnout of this election vis-a-vis previous Governor’s races/midterm elections is not precisely the right way to analyze this. We know that Battleground Texas has been working the state for a significant amount of time to register voters and drive turnout. That, in turn, has resulted in an equally competitive ground game on the part of the Republicans. We may very well see an historic turnout, but it is likely to be the result of efforts at the top of the ticket, not necessarily city-specific issues.
There are a couple of things to look at after the results come in on election night that can shed light on this one way or another:
- Look for how the voter turnout % in Denton tracks with the turnout in Denton County and in the state as a whole. We can only safely say city-specific issues drove turnout in the event that the Denton voter turnout busts the curve statewide.
- Pay attention to the number of total voters in the city and compare that with the number of people who vote on the city-specific items. In such elections, there is predictable shrinkage from the top to the bottom of the ballot.
EARLY VOTING STATS
According to county records, 14,465 Denton city voters turned out to vote during the Early Voting period ending on October 31 (when I crunched that with the latest City of Denton voter database, the number shrunk to 14,117 and I haven’t spent the time to figure out the discrepancy). Compare that with 20,028 total voters (early and regular) from 2010 (the last Governor’s race – again, consider the above qualifications).
The average age of these voters is 51 – this more or less tracks with the 2010 demographics where the average age was 53.
There’s been much talk of the number of newly registered voters heading into this election. For my purposes, voters who have registered since May 1, 2014 (roughly 6 months prior to the registration deadline for this election) are counted as a newly registered voter. There have been 4509 of those new voters registering during that time. As of right now, only 919 of them have voted – that’s only 20% of them. The average age of all the newly registered voters is 29, but the average age of those who have showed up to vote so far is 32.
UNT was home to an early voting polling site. 1460 of the city of Denton early voters voted at UNT – that accounts for 10% of all the early voters in the city of Denton. The average age of those voting at UNT is 29. Over half of the 919 newly registered voters who early voted did so at this UNT site – 469 of them.
We won’t know until Tuesday night what percentage of total voters voted early, but the trend has been increasing in recent years. 64% of all 2012 voters from the city of Denton voted early in that election. If early voters account for 64% of this election’s total vote, we can expect to see 22,601 total voters after the polls close on Tuesday. That would only be slightly up from the 2010 total of 20,028 voters – not the historic voter turnout some are already claiming.
We will soon find out. Go vote if you aren’t counted as part of 14,465 of your fellow citizens who already have!
David vs. Goliath – Three Quarter Million Dollars to Fight Frack Ban
Nearly a quarter of a million dollars have been collected to date by opponents of the citizen-initiated ordinance to ban fracking in the city of Denton. Less than $1000 of that has come from citizens of Denton. That means that 99.85% of all the money coming in to fight the ban is coming from outside interests.
Sound familiar?
This is a quick video clip from the July 15 meeting in which the city council first considered the ordinance as presented by the citizens:
City Council Preview – October 28, 2014
Who said local government wasn’t sexy? We are set for a triple header of controversy at today’s council meeting where we will discuss fracking, flags, and a convention center. It all starts at 11:30am – you can find the full agenda here.
GAS WELL DISCUSSION
Because what happens at the polls on November 4 is beyond our control at this point, we continue to work to tighten up our existing ordinance. There are still many problems to address with fracking in our city, particularly as it relates to existing sites, and we are working on a number of amendments to our ordinance as we said we would do the last time we voted to extend the moratorium on all drilling activity in the city. Because this discussion involves consultation with our attorneys on legal matters relating to the ordinance, we will be having this discussion in Executive Session.
CONVENTION CENTER
The council will consider whether or not to agree to expend an additional $75,000 on additional design work for the Convention Center project. You might recall that the council has previously put further work or expenditures on this project on hold, pending certain information from our partners in the Master Development Agreement. There has been significant concern from several members of council on several aspects of this agreement up to this point. The question for us today, it seems, is whether or not the council feels this project has enough chance of life in order to justify continued expenditures.
FLAGS, FLAGS, and MORE FLAGS
If you have been paying attention this last week, you surely have gotten wind of the controversy surrounding enforcement of an ordinance relating to Frenchy’s flying of flags. It is hard to imagine a Denton without Frenchy, his orange trucks, his eccentricity, his love for our city, and his undeniable commitment to our nation, as evidenced by his own record of service and his constant work for our troops and our nation’s veterans. Perhaps the best part of my oldest daughter’s 6th birthday was seeing her name on one of his trucks. Frenchy is also a marketing genius, which is why it was inevitable that after receiving a notice of violation for flying too many flags, we’d soon see Frenchy in every publication and on every television station in the region. The downside to all this is that it has brought out all sorts of polarizing rhetoric. I can’t tell you how many emails I have received that have suggested I move to another country.
Council will be using this controversy as an opportunity to have a policy discussion relating to our sign policy. Let’s be clear on a few things. Every city has policies and ordinances relating to signs. Just about every one of these ordinances that I have researched also has policies and rules relating to flags. In general, there is likely widespread agreement about the need for such things – in a world where certain businesses depend on exposure and name recognition for their success, lack of regulations of any sort would result in an out-of-control sign race, each business fighting for the biggest, tallest, most visible, and highest number of signs possible. Remember, George Bailey’s confrontation with Pottersville in It’s a Wonderful Life? Much of the distinction in scenery between that fast and loose city and quaint Bedford Falls rested on the aesthetics of signage.
The very idea of a city regulating such things is not all that controversial. And the inclusion of flags in such ordinances is a part of all this. Each community must decide what they want their streetscape and landscape to look like and what standards are appropriate to that community. Several years ago, our community adopted standards that restrict the number of flags, governmental or not, that can be flown on a particular site.
This might sound crazy, but it is important to think through the consequences of any particular policy. To begin with, we are not alone in this. I received a very angry email from a gentleman in Argyle who was criticizing our city for daring to regulate the number of flags that can be flown on private property. Upon research of his own city’s ordinance, I discovered that Argyle also regulates flags in a similar way, limiting the number of flags per site to 3. Such regulations are not uncommon in cities.
But we also must understand that there is no way to write a law that allows one particular business to do one thing that doesn’t also allow every other business to do the same thing. My love for Frenchy and his obvious service to our city and country doesn’t justify creating a policy that exempts him from following the same rules as everyone else. That means that any change that allows him to continue to fly an unlimited number of flags will also require us to allow any other business to do the same. And if, at the end of the day, that is the will of our community, then that’s fine – these are essentially aesthetic standards and we need to decide what we want as a city.
But there may come a day, when a person or business far less patriotic wants to use flags, not as a display of patriotism, but as a cheap way to draw attention to themselves or their business. It is important to note that any ordinance we draft can’t attempt to ascertain the patriotism or motivations of the flag flyer. Some sleezy payday lender might decide to outfit their premise with 100 flags in order to standout from all the other corrupt loan shark outfits in town. Some frack site within 200 feet of a neighborhood might surround their site with 50 flags, lit up 24 hours a day, to express their opinion that such activity is the truly American way to combat terrorists in the Middle East. A change of policy that allows Frenchy to do his thing opens up the possibility of unintended consequences like this.
As a community, we need to decide what we want. As policy makers, we have to consider the universalizing effect of any ordinance we put in place. We simply can’t write and enact policy with an eye to one particular person or business in town. That is the discussion we will have. I think it is important that we all see the much more complex aspect to policies like this.
Need Feedback on Federal Funds for Denton – Give us ideas for projects!
Each year, the city of Denton gets a certain amount of federal funds from the Community Development Block Grant and the HOME Investment Partnership Grant. Unfortunately, because of tightening federal funds and politics in DC, these amounts have decreased significantly over the last few years (please contact your congressman). But in order to prioritize what we do get in the best possible way, we need the feedback of our community.
Please take this super quick survey from the city’s Community Development team to give them some feedback. Then make plans to attend one of these public hearings where you can pitch ideas for a federally funded project in Denton…
City Council Preview – October 14, 2014
The City Council meets on Tuesday, October 14 at 1:30pm for 2nd Tuesday Work Session on a variety of topics. Click here to see the full agenda and read on for my thoughts:
INNOVATION DISTRICT and TECH-BASED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Council will hear a presentation and discuss the possibility of creating an Innovation District to focus on innovative and tech-based entrepreneurs and companies. The council approved $220,000 in this year’s budget to begin looking at some of these things. Here’s a great primer on the Rise of Innovation Districts around the nation from the Brookings Institute.
DISCUSSION ON COUNCIL RULES OF PROCEDURE
Did you know that citizens are allowed only 3 minutes to speak on any given topic? Did you know that in order for citizens to comment on a topic on the Consent Agenda, they have to turn in a card and do it at the beginning of the afternoon worksession, and other such things? We’ll be discussing possible changes to the ways in which citizens engage with the city council during our meetings.
UPDATE ON HICKORY STREET PROJECT
We’ve been seeing a bunch of infrastructure work downtown on E. Hickory Street over the last several months. It will all culminate in a great Hickory Street corridor project between the train station and downtown Denton. No doubt, the downtown area continues to be thriving, but some of the businesses near the construction area have been concerned with accessibility and perception of customers. We’ll be discussing the timing of the project, what is being done to accommodate these businesses, and possible changes to the schedule.
DISCUSSION ON THE CONVENTION CENTER
We have two agenda topics devoted to this topic at today’s meeting: one during executive session. As we move closer to the date where we are contemplating the selling of bonds, the council will continue to discuss this issue on a near-weekly basis.
If you have any comments or questions on any of this, please contact me at 940-206-5239 or kevin.roden@cityofdenton.com.