Daily Kos

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jeff Singer

Leading Off:

• NC-Sen: It's been a while since we've seen too many anti-same-sex marriage ads in a general election, even in red states. But the National Organization of Marriage is quickly running out of reasons to exist, so they're hitting Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan for voting to confirm a judge who later struck down the state's ban. The judge was confirmed by the Senate 96-0 so this is, of course, a stupid line of attack, but NOM is not exactly the most pragmatic group out there.

Also for the GOP, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has an ad starring Mitt Romney saying some generic nice things about Republican Thom Tillis. The chamber's last ad here starred country music star Randy Owen but there's no singing from Mitt in this spot, which is probably for the best. We also have GOP expenditures from the chamber and Crossroads GPS.

Head below the fold for a roundup of ads from races across the country.

On October 21, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch released the official autopsy results for Mike Brown. Accompanying the autopsy was an analysis and commentary from forensic scientist Dr. Judy Melinek. Her commentary actually made more news than the results of autopsy itself.

Tucked away inside of the full autopsy report is an initial statement of Darren Wilson's perspective as told by Detective Patrick J. Hokamp of the St. Louis County Police Department. It is the first known statement from a detective who was actually on the scene soon after the shooting and appears to have been given to the medical examiner soon after the shooting. What's most surprising isn't necessarily what is included in this statement, but some glaring omissions when compared up against recent statements purported to be from Darren Wilson's testimony to the grand jury.

Below you will find the statement from Detective Hokamp from the scene of the shooting and Darren Wilson's alleged testimony recounting what took place.

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jen Hayden

Big news on the Kansas election front. Thanks in large part to Daily Kos readers, the Kansas City Star reports that Jean Schodorf, the Daily Kos-endorsed Democratic challenger for secretary of state in Kansas had a huge fundraising quarter:

A survey for KSN Television in Wichita found Schodorf and Kobach tied at 45 percent, with the balance undecided.

The poll by SurveyUSA comes a day after new campaign finance reports showed that Schodorf had raised about $80,000 more than Kobach in the last three months.

And where'd those funds come from? They came from YOU:

The national contributions came as a result of an endorsement from the liberal website the Daily Kos, which published stories with a request for donations to be sent to Schodorf, campaign spokesman Marcus Williamson said.

“Nearly all of those small contributions were given online from people who are familiar with Kobach’s national reputation, and wanted to support his opponent,” Williamson said in an email.

The race is tied and we still have work to do. The ground game isn't cheap and we still have a few more days to push Jean Schodorf over the top.

Can you chip in $3 to help elect Daily Kos-endorsed Jean Schodorf and send Kris Kobach back to private practice?

Voting by mail is convenient, easy, and defeats the best of the GOP's voter suppression efforts. Sign up here to check eligibility and vote by mail, then get your friends, family, and coworkers to sign up as well.

This race is so close, but we can pull it out with help from readers like you.

Reposted from Daily Kos Labor by Laura Clawson

Low-wage workers in Wisconsin are suing Gov. Scott Walker's administration over its refusal to raise the minimum wage in accord with the state's unusual law requiring the minimum wage to be a living wage that provides workers "reasonable comfort, reasonable physical well-being, decency, and moral well-being."

After the workers petitioned Walker to raise the state minimum wage from the federal level of $7.25 an hour, his Department of Workforce Development rejected them, claiming $7.25 is a living wage despite the workers' accounts of putting off payment for necessary things like diabetes test strips.

Walker's administration is responding to the lawsuit with the same seriousness it took the petition for a higher minimum wage:

Asked about the suit, a spokesperson for DWD e-mailed: “While the Department has yet to receive formal notification of a lawsuit being filed, we would point out that most of the complainants who are arguing the minimum wage is not a living wage are making more than the minimum wage—up to $15.07 an hour.”

Aaand ... because people making a little more than minimum wage say they're having trouble making ends meet, therefore we shouldn't raise the minimum wage? That doesn't even deserve to be labeled as logic in a sarcastic vein. It makes no sense. But that kind of disdain for workers is Scott Walker all over.

Scott Walker has real competition. Please give $3 to help put Mary Burke over the top.

Defeat Mitch McConnell in just two hours. Sign up to make GOTV calls to Democrats.

Wisconsin workers deserve so much more—in pay and in respect from their governor.

New poll out of Michigan, one of millions of polls, but this one is particularly noteworthy. Why? Because it gives us insight into what happens when "likely voter" models run into "actual voters" early vote.

First the toplines:

With less than a week before the Nov. 4 election, Gov. Rick Snyder has only a two-point, 45%-43%, lead over Democrat Mark Schauer, according to an exclusive 600-person poll of likely voters taken Oct. 26-28 by EPIC-MRA for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV and their media polling partners. Nine percent of respondents said they still are undecided, and 3% percent said they are voting for third-party candidates.

Among those 9% undecided, however, the partisan leanings of 8% are toward Democrats and 1% toward Republicans.

Account for those leans among undecided voters, and it's a tied race, 46-46. Last time the pollster, EPIC-MRA, was in the field about 10 days ago, they had incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Snyder leading 47-39. So how did Democrats suddenly close an 8-point gap? They probably didn't. The pollster was forced to count people who already voted.

[T]he Democrats' strategy to increase turnout by getting people to vote by absentee ballot is a big driver.

Those people were getting screened out in previous surveys because they weren't part of anyone's "likely voter" model—they weren't white enough, old enough, or didn't vote in 2010. But Democratic GOTV efforts are making a real difference.

If this poll is to be taken at face value, we're tied, but still slightly behind. Not a bad way to look at Tuesday's election since that appears to be the norm across the board—tied-ish, but slightly behind. So how do you overcome that? GOTV like your life depends on it.

GOTV anyone and everyone can: pester your friends, family, co-workers, milkman, paperboy, and everyone else around you to vote.

It's now or never, give $3 to help get Democrats over the line.

Defeat Mitch McConnell in just two hours. Sign up to make GOTV calls to Democrats.

What are YOU doing to GOTV these last few days of this cycle?

Many environmentally related posts appearing at Daily Kos each week don't attract the attention they deserve. To help get more eyeballs, Spotlight on Green News & Views (previously known as the Green Diary Rescue) appears twice a week, on Wednesdays and Saturdays. The most recent Saturday Spotlight can be seen here. So far, more than 19,910 environmentally oriented diaries have been rescued for inclusion in this weekly collection since 2006. Inclusion of a diary in the Spotlight does not necessarily indicate my agreement with or endorsement of it.
Unstoppable Human Population Growth to about 10 Billion Will Cause Ecosystem Decline or Collapse—by FishOutofWater: "Biologists, experienced in modeling wildlife populations, found that human population growth will expand to 10 billion people even if large mortality events, similar to the 1918 influenza outbreak, kill half a billion people. Human population growth has so much momentum that it's almost impossible to stop in this century. The only ways found to keep the human population below 10 billion are to eliminate unwanted pregnancies (which are presently 16% of all pregnancies) and establish a global one child policy. There is no practical way to make and enforce a global one child policy, so empowering women to control their fertility is the only possible way to keep the human population below 10 billion to avert severe loss of biodiversity, and severe ecosystem decline, in Africa and Asia. If women don't strictly limit their fertility, mass mortality events of half a billion to two billion people will not stop the human population from expanding to levels likely to cause severe ecosystem decline."
BP's Gulf Oil Disaster Left An Oil "Ring" The Size of Rhode Island—by Dartagnan: "Remember the Deepwater Horizon BP Oil Disaster? Remember the underwater cameras that showed that never-ending plume of oil pouring into the Gulf of Mexico for week after week, month after month? BP and the rest of the oil industry would like you to forget that. Alas, they left a permanent calling card: New research shows that the BP oil spill left an oily 'bathtub ring' on the sea floor that’s about the size of Rhode Island. The study by UC Santa Barbara’s David Valentine, the chief scientist on the federal damage assessment research ships, estimates that about 10 million gallons of oil coagulated on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico around the damaged Deepwater Horizons oil rig. Valentine said the spill left other splotches containing even more oil. The rig blew on April 20, 2010, and spewed 172 million gallons of oil into the Gulf through the summer. As most of us recall, a great deal of the oil washed ashore on Florida, Texas and Louisiana beaches. David Valentine has spearheaded the effort to find out where all of the rest of the oil went."
MI-06 Could be a Key Democratic Pick-Up....But the DCCC is Sitting Out—by Liberty Equality Fraternity and Trees: "Last Tuesday, National Journal had an article on the congressional race in MI-06: 'Is Michigan's Most Powerful Republican Really in Political Danger?' The piece offers reason to believe that he very well might be: [Fred] Upton, the chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, is facing the most credible Democratic opponent of his career, and a late infusion of outside money has energized Democrats on the ground. Still, there's been little polling or non-anecdotal indicators to prove the race is winnable. But even if Upton prevails this year, his opponents hope to at least put him in the conversation of future Democratic targets—and lay the groundwork for a better-financed 2016 campaign in a presidential year that offers a strong climate for Democrats. [...] MI-06 is a district that should be a swing district in Congress. Obama lost by a narrow margin (48.9% - 50.2%) in 2012 and won the district, albeit with slightly different lines, in 2008 (53.1% - 45.2%). It has a Partisan Voting Index of R+1. And its representative is a guy whom the LA Times described as the biggest enemy of the Earth in Congress. And it has a good candidate in Paul Clements. [...] According to FEC filings, Paul Clements has received all of $0 from the DCCC. Mike O'Brien, who challenged Upton in 2012, also received nada from the DCCC. According to Howie Klein (of Blue America and the blog Down With Tyranny), Steve Israel, DCCC co-chair, has actually done worse than nothing: he has actually been turning away potential donors from the race. Howie noted earlier today that Israel told the League of Conservation Voters to not spend money in the race."

You can find more rescued green diaries below the orange garden layout.

Reposted from Comics by Barbara Morrill

Click to enlarge.

The election is next Tuesday, but conservative House and Senate Republicans have already established an agenda for the upcoming Congress if their party manages to reclaim control of the Senate and you won't be surprised by the first item on their list:

Though no calendar has been set, members want an early vote on Obamacare. House members have cast more than three dozen votes to replace aspects of the 2010 health care law, but any repeal effort has hit a full stop in the Democratic Senate. Still conservatives are eager to force Obama’s hand by sending an early repeal bill if McConnell assumes the Senate majority leader seat.

By the time next Congress rolls around, it will be 2015—five years after Obamacare became law—and yet even though Obamacare has survived a presidential election, a Supreme Court ruling, and fifty-plus repeal votes in the House, the first thing these guys want to do is to try once again to repeal it.

I mean, c'mon, guys. This is ridiculous. Obamacare is here to stay, it's been here to stay, and yet another repeal vote won't change that one bit. The best thing you can say about it is that it's a pointless exercise that will at least distract them from the other damaging policies that they plan to push, including legislation that would ...

... increase border security without any legislative sweeteners like increases in visas for high-tech workers or allowing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Conservative Republicans also want to create work requirements for welfare recipients and force Obama to veto the Keystone XL pipeline.

House Republicans have already voted multiple times for these policies, so there's literally nothing new on that list, yet in the words of South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney, these wingnuts believe it will usher in a new era for the Republican Party:

One of our frustrations is that we’ve never told folks what we stand for. We’ve told them that we’re not Obama, but we’ve never told them what conservatives stand for.

Well, it's true that Republicans have said they're not for Obama, but it's nonsense to say they've been silent on those policy issues, because they've repeatedly taken futile votes on exactly these issues. That's pretty much all they've done, save for the occasional timeout when they've let Democrats deliver the bulk of the votes required for things like ending the government shutdown or reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act.

Please chip in $3 to help good Democrats in competitive races finish this election strong.

Defeat Mitch McConnell in just two hours. Sign up to make GOTV calls to Democrats.

If Republicans want to enter the 2016 election cycle still running on a platform of repealing Obamacare, deporting undocumented Americans, closing our borders to high-skilled workers, treating poor mothers like trash, and doubling down on a "drill, baby, drill" energy policy, it will be neither pleasant nor a surprise, but at least there will be one silver lining: Their return to power will be very, very short lived.

Campaigning for Bruce Braley's Senate run in Iowa, Hillary Clinton called out Joni Ernst's refusal to sit down with the Iowa press for endorsement interviews, a refusal the Republican candidate has said was because she figured they'd endorse Braley anyway.
Yeah, pretty much. Being unwilling to talk to several of the major newspapers in your state as you campaign on the claim that you represent the "Iowa way" better than the other guy is ... not confidence-inspiring. But then, Ernst's positions mean there are a lot of hard questions she should be asked, like about her support for privatizing Social Security, for instance. And her opposition to a minimum wage above $7.25 for Iowa workers. And her support for a personhood amendment. You know, little stuff like that.

If we turn out, we win. Chip in $3 to help get out the vote for Daily Kos’ endorsed candidates.

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Good for Hillary Clinton for not letting this one slide.

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jed Lewison

It turns out buying "volunteer" enthusiasm is nothing new for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's reelection campaign: Even before reports surfaced that McConnell was offering all-expenses-paid travel and lodging for people to pose as enthusiastic locals on his most recent campaign bus tour, new FEC documents posted online by the Alison Lundergan Grimes campaign show his campaign was spending a ton of money to buy Mitch some love.

Specifically, the documents show, on September 19, September 22, and October 9, McConnell's campaign spent nearly $75,000 on airfare, food, and lodging for "volunteers" to show up at McConnell events. We won't know until the campaign is over just how much money McConnell had to spend to make it look like people like him, but this much is clear: It hasn't been cheap.

Please chip in $3 to help good Democrats in competitive races finish this election strong.

Defeat Mitch McConnell in just two hours. Sign up to make GOTV calls to Democrats.

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jen Hayden

Yes, you read that headline correctly. SurveyUSA is out with new polling in Kansas and the results are stunning for the previously moderate sunflower state that's taken a hard conservative turn in recent years.

Let's start with Gov. Sam Brownback and his disaster of an economy:

In Tuesday’s new poll, the data shows Gov. Brownback at 43 percent to Davis’ 46 percent.

Since August, Brownback has never led in the polls.

Next up, the race for U.S. Senate, with the edge to Independent Greg Orman:

Orman has a slight lead at 44 percent to Roberts’ 42 percent.

Orman's lead has shrunk a bit as Kansas tea-party Republicans completely backed off all their previous threats of sitting out of the election after a messy primary battle and decided to throw their support to Roberts. As if they were ever going to do anything different. The move to back Roberts, without him meeting any of their absurd demands shows just how toothless this group really is in Kansas.

And last, but certainly not least, is the race for secretary of state, featuring Kris Kobach–the worst secretary of state in the nation–versus Daily Kos-endorsed Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf. When we last looked in on the race, Kobach had a 5-point lead. No more:

The latest poll data, released on October 28, shows that if the election were held today, Secretary of State Kris Kobach is tied with Democrat Jean Schodorf at 45 percent each. The poll shows that 11 percent of voters still remain undecided. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percent.

While there are a lot of reasons to dislike Kris Kobach, the single biggest are his policies of voting discrimination and disenfranchisement:

The Crosscheck list of suspected double voters has been compiled by matching names from roughly 110 million voter records from participating states. Interstate Crosscheck is the pet project of Kansas’ controversial Republican secretary of state, Kris Kobach, known for his crusade against voter fraud.

The three states’ lists are heavily weighted with names such as Jackson, Garcia, Patel and Kim — ones common among minorities, who vote overwhelmingly Democratic. […]

If even a fraction of those names are blocked from voting or purged from voter rolls, it could alter the outcome of next week’s electoral battle for control of the U.S. Senate — and perhaps prove decisive in the 2016 presidential vote count.

Kris Kobach isn't likely to give up his relentless pursuit of voter disenfranchisement and xenophobic policies, but with your help he won't be doing it from the Kansas secretary of state's office much longer.

Can you chip in $3 to help elect Daily Kos-endorsed Jean Schodorf and send Kris Kobach back to private practice?

Voting by mail is convenient, easy, and defeats the best of the GOP's voter suppression efforts. Sign up here to check eligibility and vote by mail, then get your friends, family, and coworkers to sign up as well.

There is a lot at stake in Kansas. Kris Kobach and his ilk have to be stopped cold before they do even more damage in 2016.

Senate Democrats decided to do things a little differently this time. Under the leadership of Guy Cecil, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee committed to spending over $60 million in building a presidential-like field operation. To say this was unprecedented is an understatement, and most committees are content to pay lip service to field while shoveling gazillions into crappy television ads that rarely move numbers anymore, and have long since passed the point of diminishing results.

The results of this election will go a long way to determining whether that field-heavy approach is here to stay, or whether greedy media consultants will try and grab those millions for themselves in future cycles. We'll know for sure how effective those efforts ultimately were in a week, but the early indications are impressive. The New York Times compiled field spending in several key Senate states:

In Alaska, Democrats have 90 paid field staffers to the GOP's 11; Democrats have 90 field offices, Republicans have 14. Those kinds of numbers are replicated in every single Senate battleground state.

In Louisiana, the early vote went heavily Democratic, a sign of a strong GOTV ground game:

Approximately 52 percent of people who early voted—over 124,000 people—were registered Democrats. The Democratic Party only makes up 46 percent of all registered voters [...]Approximately 33 percent of people who early voted—79,700 people—were registered Republicans.

Now Democrats need to replicate that effort on Election Day, and then on runoff day.

In North Carolina, the early numbers look stellar.

Registered Democratic voters have submitted 50 percent of the total in-person early votes, and are 110 percent of where they were four years ago [...] Registered Republicans are 30 percent of the total in-person early votes, and are 81 percent of where they were four years ago on the same day.

In Georgia, 183,000 new voters registered, two-thirds of them non-Hispanic white, thus mostly Democratic. The Republican secretary of state has "lost" another 40,000 registrations. Early vote totals show a less white electorate, again important in a southern state where the black vote (and Latinos to a smaller degree) will determine the Democrats' fate.

In Iowa, Democrats have 35 field offices to the GOP's 13, but as of now, the Democrats' traditional early vote advantages have been erased by an aggressive Republican early vote effort. Democrats claim that they're getting more of their votes than in 2010 (an expanded electorate helps us) and that Republicans are merely shifting their already reliable voters from Election Day to the early vote. We'll know next week if that's true.

The Democratic field operation in Colorado hasn't been felt yet, either. Republicans lead the early vote by 9.4 percent, with 950,000 ballots returned, or about half of the 2010 electorate. This is an all-mail election, and the early ballots are disproportionately rural and from older voters. Democrats have some catching up to do.

Our own Taniel has more details on most of these states (and other non-Senate states). But note: GOTV is something we all must do. So talk to your family, friends, coworkers, and acquaintances, virtual phone bank, volunteer for your local campaigns.

Republicans are also doing GOTV. We sit on the sidelines, we lose. And that doesn't have to happen.