Over the past few weeks, I’ve been hinting at the possibility that Cedar Hill and DeSoto’s game could have some titanic playoff implications, both within District 8-6A and in neighboring districts. The idea was intoxicating.
If District 8-6A’s two largest programs, Duncanville and South Grand Prairie, both made the playoffs (a strong possibility as recently as a week ago), DeSoto would have been pushed to the 6A Division II playoffs – amplifying the significance around tonight’s Battle of Belt Line by determining the district’s top seed in D2.
The ramifications of such a scenario were huge: the loser of Cedar Hill/DeSoto would face Southlake Carroll in the opening round, DeSoto wouldn’t get a much-anticipated third shot at Kyler Murray and Allen, and a rematch in the Division II Region II final would be a strong possibility.
I’m here to apologize. It’s all hogwash.
After looking at the playoff scenarios (thankfully supplied by Greg Riddle), I don’t see much of a path Duncanville can take to get in the playoffs, save two: an unlikely upset over DeSoto in Week 11 or Midlothian losing out (with some other things at play).
Let me draw up a hypothetical:
Assume Cedar Hill wins out, DeSoto rebounds from a Cedar Hill loss with two wins to close out the regular season (over Midlothian and Duncanville), and South Grand Prairie beats Mansfield on Friday, but loses to Cedar Hill in two weeks. Cedar Hill would be 6-0, DeSoto 5-1, SGP 4-2.
The next three – Midlothian, Mansfield and Duncanville – would have all gone 0-3 against the district’s top three.
Duncanville (3-5, 1-3) has already split games between the two: beating Mansfield by three on Sept. 26, and falling to Midlothian by five last week. The best the Panthers could finish is 2-4 in district play – if it can’t pull off that DeSoto upset.
- Duncanville (3-5,1-3), on a bye this week, has two games left: at Grand Prairie and DeSoto.
- Midlothian (3-4, 1-2) has three remaining games: at Grand Prairie, DeSoto and at Mansfield.
- Mansfield (4-3, 1-2) also has three left: SGP, at Cedar Hill, Midlothian.
For simplicity’s sake, let’s say Midlothian beats Grand Prairie and Mansfield loses to SGP, so that the two enter the final game with Midlothian sitting on two district wins and Mansfield just one. If Midlothian wins, its three wins sends it through, no tiebreaker needed. Similarly, if Mansfield beats SGP AND Midlothian, it goes with three district wins.
But let’s force a three-way tie, with Mansfield beating Midlothian.
District 8-6A tiebreaker rules say that if three teams are tied, the playoff berth(s) are determined by going to point differential (with a plus/minus cap of 14) to determine the spot. “Once you go with points, you stay with points” – meaning that the district won’t kick out the lowest point tally and resort to head-to-head competition between the top two point-holders. The places will be determined by points from then on.
Under that scenario:
- Mansfield would need to beat Midlothian by five or more for the playoff spot (finishing 2-4, with a +2 or greater point differential).
- Midlothian would need to lose by three or less for the berth (finishing 2-4, with a point differential between +4 to +2).
- If Mansfield won by four, a coin flip would occur (and this is where the rules are a little unclear; Duncanville might play a part in a three-way coin flip, or it could just be between Midlothian and Mansfield, tied at +1).
- Duncanville, in this three-way scenario, has no chance of advancing, already set with a -2 point differential.
Apart from that unlikely upset of DeSoto, Duncanville needs this cascade of events to get in: Midlothian must lose out, starting with Friday’s game at Grand Prairie, and Mansfield must lose to both SGP and Cedar Hill and beat Midlothian in the season finale. If that happens, Mansfield and Duncanville would be tied at 2-4, with Duncanville holding the head-to-head win.
It’s not likely – but that’s the only way for this DeSoto/Cedar Hill game is for anything but bragging rights.