Getty Images There are always surprises and breakout players in an NBA season and with that it can be hard to make predictions on postseason awards before the season tips off…
But not as much with MVP lately. This has been a two-man race for a few years now — LeBron James and Kevin Durant. They are the two best players on the planet, both are near the peaks of their games. Each has won the award before.
It is likely a two-man race again this season, they are at the top of the list of people to watch, but we’ve got three others who could slip into the discussion and some dark horses out there. Still, smart money probably is on the guy at the top of this list.
1) LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers). When it comes to winning the MVP a player needs two things: Great statistics to show off a great season, and just as importantly a great narrative. Voters for MVP are media members and that’s a group who likes stories. We know LeBron is the best player on the planet and will put up numbers (even though with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving around his raw numbers may dip a little). And now having returned to Cleveland and lifting that team to elite contender status, he has a narrative people love. He has to be considered the favorite to pick up his fifth MVP.
2) Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder). He’d be on top of this list for me had it not been for the foot injury that will have him out at least the first month of the season (considering the type of injury and the Thunder’s history of being cautious with injured stars, expect it to be longer). Also, this year he will have a healthy Russell Westbrook on his team all season, last season with Westbrook out Durant had to take on more of the scoring load and did so while still being very efficient (which really is what won him the award). All that said, he is going to put up big numbers, particularly the second half of the season, and he’s going to be the best player and a legit title contender. He is the guy who got the trophy last year and he’ll get a lot of votes again.
3) Blake Griffin (Los Angeles Clippers). He finished third in the MVP voting last season and again will be at the heart of a contender with the Los Angeles Clippers. If someone tells you “all he can do is dunk” you know that person doesn’t watch a lot of basketball — he has a solid midrange jumper now (with range out to the three point line), is a good passer out of the post and can even score plenty with his back to the basket (even through his footwork can still be sloppy). And yes, he can dunk — if you’re that athletic you should get a lot of shots at the rim. Griffin averaged 24.1 points a game with an impressive .583 true shooting percentage plus had 9.5 rebounds a game, and his numbers could well go up. The one real challenge to Griffin’s candidacy? He may not be the best player on his own team. Griffin and Chris Paul will split votes, and that could hurt both of them. Expect the Clippers PR machine to get behind and push one of them over the other, probably Griffin.
4) Anthony Davis (New Orleans Pelicans). The Brow is entering his third NBA season and this could be a breakout year for him. He averaged 20.8 points a game with a .582 true shooting percentage plus 10 rebounds a game last season and after a summer as a key part of Team USA at the World Cup he is ready to make a leap — by the end of the season he may establish himself as the third best player in the NBA. Also, he’ll be the star of a Pelicans team that is going to surprise a lot of people. All that may not be enough for him to win the award this year, but he’s going to move into the discussion (and probably win one down the line).
5) Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls). There are a lot of “ifs” with his candidacy. If Rose stays healthy. If he looks close to his old self before the knee injuries. If the Bulls behind him look like a team that can challenge the Cavaliers for the Eastern Conference title. If all those things come together… well, Rose has won this award before. He’s dynamic and entertaining. Every other guy on this list is at least 6’8”, Rose is listed at 6’3” yet slashes his way into the paint and makes plays among the trees in the NBA — it’s something fans can relate to in a way they can’t with taller players. If Rose and the Bulls are back and big stories again, he will be in the MVP conversation.
Dark horse candidates: Chris Paul (Clippers), Stephen Curry (Warriors), James Harden (Rockets), Carmelo Anthony (Knicks).
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- therealhtj - Oct 20, 2014 at 11:12 AM
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Way to go out on a limb there Kurt.
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- Kurt Helin - Oct 20, 2014 at 7:22 PM
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I should have picked Jose Calderon?
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- urallstupid - Oct 21, 2014 at 11:51 AM
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if anyone other than lebron wins the MVP (barring injury) i will eat kurt’s donuts for a week.
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- moseskkim - Oct 20, 2014 at 11:13 AM
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I dont like drose on the list at all. I wish him the best but he hasnt looked all that good. He needs to prove he can stay healthy and they will most certainly keep his minutes down with brooks continuing the successful trend of tiny backup pgs under thibs. Lower minutes plus better team around him = less numbers etc. FWestbrook Paul harden steph d12 (back to orlando days) seem like much better picks
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- blogsk3tball - Oct 20, 2014 at 6:36 PM
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Pau has more chance at MVP if he plays anything like the World Champs… Which he should with a coach who actually knows how to use a players talents
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- urallstupid - Oct 21, 2014 at 11:52 AM
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but he’s going to a coach who’s going to play pau 50 minutes a game.
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- sylpkt - Oct 20, 2014 at 11:13 AM
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How about Westbrook? I don’t think he wins it, but he’s got a shot to contend with KD out for a couple months. If he puts up 30/10/8 w/ decent %s and the Thunder stay afloat, he’ll at least be in the conversation.
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- spursareold - Oct 20, 2014 at 1:29 PM
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Westbrook puts up poor percentages playing WITH KD. It’s going to be an abomination watching him chuck WITHOUT KD to bail him out.
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- savvybynature - Oct 20, 2014 at 1:44 PM
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Yeah but how closely do the MVP voters look at efficiency? Some do, but many don’t.
If he has great raw #s and OKC does well while Durant is out, I’d expect he’ll get some votes.
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- truehooper1421 - Oct 20, 2014 at 2:52 PM
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Westbrook is my boy but 30, 10 and 8!! average???
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- lenbias34pt - Oct 20, 2014 at 11:19 AM
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Westbrook is a great call.
Has the talent and now has a unique situation that could make him the early favorite.A vocal guy, he has upset many fans, but if you get beyond that the guy plays as hard as anyone and is as talented too.
1.Lebron.
2. A Davis
3. Westbrook
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- innovativethinking87 - Oct 20, 2014 at 12:07 PM
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LaMarcus Aldridge too. If Blake Griffin is on that list then LMA should be as well.
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- dodgers93lakers - Oct 20, 2014 at 1:29 PM
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Yup he’s who I was wondering why wasn’t on this list, Aldridge is a beast, but just like the article says it’s voted on by the media, so Aldridge won’t win even if he has good number. MVP should be changed to Mr Very Popular lol it’s just a popularity contest.
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- innovativethinking87 - Oct 20, 2014 at 2:48 PM
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Def is. I mean how are you going to have Blake Griffin on there when he has freaking Chris Paul as point? Yes you can say well LMA has Lillard but that gives you even more reason to add LMA on the list then.
Clippers had a better point guard on their squad AND a deeper bench but still made it just as deep as the Blazers did in the west.
But somehow LMA wont be an MVP contender?
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- urallstupid - Oct 21, 2014 at 12:03 PM
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cause everyone and their moms are on the blake griffin d*ck train even tho the guy is a d-bag.
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- savvybynature - Oct 20, 2014 at 1:51 PM
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I think MVP-level play is expecting too much from D. Rose in what is (hopefully) his first season back after basically a two year absence.
I’d also take Durant off the list too, personally. He’d have to put crazy historical #s to be in the conversation after missing 1/5 of the season, wouldn’t he?
I’d put Westbrook and Aldridge on the list over those two, and I think Dwight Howard and Tony Parker are better dark horse candidates than Harden (his well deserved reputation for not playing defense would hurt his candidacy) and Carmelo (Knicks won’t win enough games). The award doesn’t automatically go to who wins the scoring title.
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- fballlvr22 - Oct 20, 2014 at 1:56 PM
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CP3?
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- savvybynature - Oct 20, 2014 at 2:19 PM
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Too many good offensive players around him. As a true PG, he’ll never score enough points! (Though agree he is a great player)
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- eoneil32 - Oct 20, 2014 at 2:00 PM
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I would put Aldridge in this conversation too
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- c2poke88 - Oct 20, 2014 at 6:46 PM
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Rose shouldn’t have won the MVP award he has. He sure as hell won’t “win” another one. He’ll actually have to earn a second one. The Bulls are already expected by many in the media to get the 1-seed in the East, so Rose won’t get brownie points for his team exceeding expectations. Also, in 2010, the media turned against Lebron because of The Decision. The media LOVES Lebron 2014 Decision to return to Cleveland, so Rose won’t be able to benefit from an anti-Lebron media this time.
One more thing. Rose wasn’t the best PG in the NBA when he won MVP. The media said he was as part of their Rose-for-MVP propaganda, but it simply wasn’t true. The media won’t be able to make that argument anymore – at least not with a straight face. Westbrook, CP3, Curry, Irving, and Wall are all too high profile now, and their teams are too good for the media to disregard those players and create a false narrative for Rose this time around.
Shooting 20 shots to score 25ppg, while having a super high turnover rate and bad assist/to ratio, won’t do it for Rose anymore. It shouldn’t have in the first place.
Lebron and KD have restored the integrity of the MVP award since the Rose MVP farce in 2011. The media should have had their MVP voting rights permanently revoked after 2011. The NBA can NEVER go back down that pathetic road again.
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- ddarqwon - Oct 20, 2014 at 10:19 PM
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Having Rose on this list is laughable.
The award he did win was perhaps the most dubious in recent history and he has shown few signs of MVP caliber play in his injury riddled career since.
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- rjthakid - Oct 21, 2014 at 11:48 AM
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MVP is an odd award. You would think that the BEST player would be the most valuable, but that’s not how the award is given.
You can be, hands-down, the best player in the league, but if your team has a poor record, you can forget about being the MVP. Your team can win the championship based largely on your performance and you still might not be MVP.
Derrick Rose won the MVP averaging:
25 ppg
4.1 rpg
7.7 apg
1 spg
44% fgThat same year Lebron had:
26.7 ppg
7.5 rpg
7 apg
1.6 spg
51% fgLebron led the Heat to the Finals that year.
Who was more valuable? Who is the guy that, after the season is over, you look back and say: “If I could pick one person I wish I had on my team this year, it’s __________”?
Don’t answer that. It was Lebron.
If MVP was truly about the MOST Valuable Player, Lebron would win it every year. As beastly as Durant is, he not quite as good as Lebron James. I think he’s much closer than people give him credit for, but he isn’t the best player.
How can you not be the best player, yet still be the most valuable?
IMO Michael Jordan should have been the MVP every (full) year he played from 1990 on, not including the two-season stint with the Wizards. He was simply the MOST…VALUABLE…PLAYER.
It shouldn’t be charity. Press shouldn’t say: “Weeeeell, Lebron has won it so many times. Let me give someone else a chance to…” NO! Either it’s the Most Valuable Player, or it isn’t.
