September 26th, 2012 Election Forecast

With less than six weeks to go until Election Day (and early voting already starting in some states), Nate Silver at the Five Thirty Eight blog is now predicting President Obama has an 80% chance of winning the Electoral College. Democrats also now have a 70% chance of retaining control of the Senate (no official forecast on the House, but most observers think it will be difficult for Democrats to win enough seats for a takeover, but things could shift as they did with the Senate outlook). First Read released their Senate rankings today:

*** First Read’s Top 10 Senate takeovers:

1. Nebraska (D): Unlike the other Dems running, Bob Kerrey is getting no traction
2. Maine (R): This is no longer a slam dunk for Angus King
3. Montana (D): Why Montana over North Dakota? Tester is an incumbent with a record
4. North Dakota (D): See above
5. Massachusetts (R): This is the nastiest race in the country right now
6. Wisconsin (D): Who would you rather be — Tommy Thompson or George Allen? We think you’d rather be Thompson
7. Virginia (D): See above
8. Nevada (R): Demographics and Obama vs. Romney are keeping Berkley in the race
9. Connecticut (D): McMahon is running perhaps the best challenger race in the country
10. Indiana (R): Will Mourdock have to beg Dick Lugar to do a final TV ad?

*** The rest (in order): Ohio (D), Florida (D), New Mexico (D), Missouri (D), Arizona (R), Hawaii (D), New Jersey (D), Michigan (D), Pennsylvania (D), Texas (R). Note: As of now, we don’t expect these races to flip, but they do suggest where the winning side might not crack 60%.

The fact that Missouri is out of the top ten is one big reason Republicans are no longer favored to win control, and is entirely attributable to Rep. Todd Akin’s shocking and ridiculous “legitimate rape” comments.

As for Texas, if you don’t know much about the Democratic candidate Paul Sadler, here is his website. He may be a long shot, but he needs your support!