Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- Rounds seems to have beaten back Pressler's surge and is at about the 40 percent mark that probably indicates victory in a legitimate three-way race.

10/17/14 -- This race has heated up, but it is worth emphasizing that all of the polling shows Rounds with a lead; the polling doesn't agree on who is in second place; and Larry Pressler – the main beneficiary of the recent surge – is untested and has some seeming gadfly characteristics. Rounds is still the favorite, but this race bears watching.

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Although South Dakota is an overwhelmingly Republican state -- it hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1964 or for governor since 1974, its congressional delegation is much more heterodox. It has sent at least one Democratic to the House or Senate in every election since 1962, and only had an all-Republican Senate delegation for one six-year period in that timeframe.

That streak may end this year. Kristi Noem seems like a reasonably safe bet for re-election, while John Thune is not up for re-election this cycle. When three-term Sen. Tim Johnson retired, popular former Gov. Mike Rounds declared for the seat, and a host of high-profile Democrats took a pass on the race. The only real drama comes in the form of the independent candidacies of former state Sen. Gordon Howie, who is running to Rounds’ right, and former U.S. Sen. Larry Pressler, whom Johnson defeated in 1996. But with four candidates in the race, 40 percent of the vote will probably be sufficient to win, and Rounds is above that threshold.