Race Analysis

To the casual observer, New Jersey appears to be solidly Democratic. Yet this overlooks the nuances of state politics. With a handful of exceptions, New Jersey has actually voted within a few points of the national average in presidential elections over the past 100 years. However, its lean is Democratic -- and rather consistently so over the past few years. Republicans rarely get blown out of the water here, but neither do they typically eclipse the 50 percent mark.

That seems to be the scenario unfolding this cycle. Jeffrey Bell ended the career of the last Republican senator elected from the state in 1978 in what we today would probably call a Tea Party challenge. Today Bell is facing off against freshman Sen. Cory Booker. Polls have shown a surprisingly close race, but Booker still remains a solid favorite.