Race Analysis

10/7/14 -- The recent SurveyUSA poll is a departure from previous polling that had shown a tightening race. It could be that Franken’s spending is finally taking hold here.

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It is difficult to imagine today, but before the 1940s there was no Democratic Party in Minnesota to speak of. From the election of Abraham Lincoln through 1948, it had never elected a Democratic senator (though one was appointed for a two-month stint in 1900). It sent a total of 15 Democrats to Congress during that time. But the Democratic Party fused with the left-leaning Farmer-Labor Party in 1944 and created a dominant force in state politics. From 1948 through 1978 the tables were turned: the state elected just one Republican senator.

In the mid-'70s, the DFL began to decline in popularity, and for a time the state had two Republican senators. Today it is thought of as a swing state, even though it hasn't voted Republican at the presidential level since 1972. Against this background, it was something of a surprise to many when Al Franken, a satirist who defied many conceptions of “Minnesota nice,” defeated Sen. Norm Coleman, a relatively moderate Republican, by the narrowest of margins. It is perhaps even more surprising that Franken spent much of this cycle as an odds-on favorite for re-election. The polls have tightened somewhat lately, but he maintains a clear edge.