Race Analysis

"As goes Maine, so goes the nation." This was the rule of thumb for political prognosticators for decades. Maine is a quirky state, and for years it held its elections in September. This gave an early view of the mood of the country in the years before reliable public opinion polling. But make no mistake, for years the only question concerned the degree of victory the Republican candidate would earn in Maine. Until 1954, when Democrat Ed Muskie won, Republicans had lost only five gubernatorial elections -- at a time when those elections were held every two years. Since the Civil War, Maine Democrats have sent only a handful of senators to Washington; most have been Republicans, although they have been cut from a decidedly moderate, or even liberal, cloth.

Susan Collins may be the last Republican in that vein. She was elected in 1996 by a surprisingly close margin, and faced races that were at least somewhat competitive until fairly late in the cycle in 2002 and 2008. But she enjoys high approval ratings, and drew an inexperienced opponent in state ACLU Director Shenna Bellows. She is a safe bet for re-election.