Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- The SurveyUSA poll looks like a bit of an outlier, and there really isn't much reason to suspect that Grimes is closing the gap by looking at the trendlines. McConnell enters the home stretch with the lead.

10/17/14 -- National Democrats seem to be pulling the plug on Grimes' campaign. The fundamentals of the state are just too much for her to overcome.

10/7/14 -- SurveyUSA is one of two pollsters to show Grimes ahead this cycle. Until there is a confirming poll, we probably should treat it as an outlier. But it is one cause for heartburn for Team Mitch.

9/8/14 -- As this race engages, Grimes' numbers seem to be falling back to Earth. There is still plenty of time for her to turn things around, but the danger for her is that national Democrats could decide to abandon her campaign if she drops too far behind.

----------Race Preview----------

Kentucky politics can largely be explained by the state’s congressional districts. The 1st and 2nd Districts are (roughly) the Jackson Purchase and Pennyrile areas of the state, which vote like the Deep South. The 3rd and 6th Districts represent urban Louisville and greater Lexington, while the 4th District is the Republican suburbs of Cincinnati and Louisville. The 5th District is an amalgam of two older districts, one of which was old mountain Republican territory, and one of which was heavily unionized and Democratic coal mining country. The name of the game for Republicans is to run well in the 4th and 5th and hold their ground in the 1st and 2nd, while Democrats try to add to their bases in Louisville, Lexington, and the coal mining areas of the 5th.

The problem for Democrats is that the coal mining areas of the 5th have steadily drifted away from them over the past decade. Sen. Rand Paul owes much of his 2010 victory to outsized Republican margins in the area, margins that were matched by Republican presidential candidates in 2008 and 2012. At the same time, Democrats have managed to enjoy continued success at the local level, and hold most statewide offices.

That encapsulates the million-dollar question for 2014, when the very unpopular Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, will face off against Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. If Grimes can push into the historic Democratic base in coal country, this election will probably stay close. If not, the 44 percent of the vote that Grimes is currently receiving will probably represent something of a ceiling for her.