Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- Democratic pollster Ivan Moore strikes a discordant note, although the pollster has a history of substantial errors in the Democrats' direction in the past. We'll need a confirming poll before we really start to weight this one.

9/29/14 -- Polls suggest a growing Sullivan lead, with Begich mired in the low 40s. This race is inching toward “Leans Republican” status for now.

9/7/14 -- Two polls in a row show Sullivan up on Begich. Alaska polling remains fickle and untrustworthy, but at the very least, it seems like Sullivan has righted the ship back to a tossup.

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Alaska was admitted to the Union as the political counterweight to Hawaii. Alaska was supposed to be the Democratic state, while Hawaii would be the Republican one. It worked out that way for a few years, but the party loyalties quickly switched -- Alaska became a staunchly Republican state by the 1970s, while Hawaii became equally as Democratic.

Defense Impacts: A vulnerable Democratic incumbent defends his seat by touting his legislative record on Air Force basing.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

One of the earliest indicators that Alaska was headed toward the GOP was the election of its first Republican senator in 1970, Ted Stevens. Stevens then had little trouble with his re-election efforts until 2008. Even though he had been convicted on multiple felony counts shortly before that election, Stevens lost by less than a percentage point to Democrat Mark Begich.

Begich started out 2014 as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents. But he has run a smart campaign, while Republican nominee Dan Sullivan slogged through a tough primary and suffered some gaffes. Early polls show Begich up, but Alaska polling is notoriously inaccurate. We likely won't have a good indication who will win this race until the morning after Election Day.