Race Analysis

Miami’s Hispanic population is no longer overwhelmingly Cuban. Nicaraguans, Colombians, Dominicans and Venezuelans have all made their way to South Florida, and they are changing the demographics—and politics— of the region.

One way this shift has expressed itself is in the 2012 election of Joe Garcia. Garcia upended David Rivera, a Republican congressman who had been dogged by allegations of ethical impropriety throughout his term in Congress at the same time that Barack Obama was carrying the 26th District by a seven-point margin over Mitt Romney.

But Garcia has had ethical problems of his own, and faces a well-funded, high-quality challenger in Carlos Curbelo. The only poll in the race shows Curbelo up, but it is dangerous to read too much into a single poll. This looks like a tossup.