Race Analysis

Rep. Mike Coffman was one of the biggest losers in the post-2010 redistricting. Overnight, he went from a Republican representing an exurban Denver district that had given Barack Obama 46 percent of the vote in 2008 to one representing the inner suburbs of Denver, with a constituency that had given Obama 54 percent of the vote.

For a solidly conservative, Club for Growth-sponsored candidate like Coffman, who had defeated a more moderate Republican in the 2008 primary, that difference could have been deadly. Yet Coffman fought off a solid challenge in 2012 from state Rep. Joe Miklosi, winning by two points.

This year, Coffman’s opponent is even stronger: former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who lost a 2010 U.S. Senate primary to appointee Michael Bennet. This is still a close race, but the environment is probably too much for Romanoff: The DCCC recently pulled $1 million in ads from his district.