Race Analysis

2010 witnessed one of the tawdriest races in South Carolina history. A crowded GOP field ran to succeed term-limited Mark Sanford in this heavily Republican state, and as the primary neared, Nikki Haley emerged as the Republican front-runner. But then Haley was hit by allegations by a blogger that she had had an affair with him. A second South Carolina Republican later claimed to have had a one-night stand with Haley at a Republican convention. The race ended up surprisingly close, with Haley emerging victorious by only four points.

This year, her 2010 opponent, Vincent Sheheen, is back for another go-round. Haley’s lead in the polls is now 16 points, and she is well over the crucial 50 percent mark. While she isn’t safe, she’s in better shape than she was in 2010.