Race Analysis

10/19/14 -- Republicans do seem to be coming home for Corbett in the closing days of this election, helping to halve what was once a 22-point gap. But that's probably not enough to help him get it done.

10/7/14 -- Corbett’s position has improved somewhat, but it is nowhere near enough to call this race competitive. Wolf remains favored to become the next governor of the state.

----------Race Preview----------

The 2010s have been rough on some of the most well-worn tropes in elections. The North Carolina Senate seat currently occupied by Richard Burr switches parties every six years (true since the 1970s) -- until it didn’t in 2010. Virginia always elected a governor from the opposite party of the one holding the White House (true since the 1970s) -- until it didn’t in 2013. And the Pennsylvania governorship switches parties every eight years. The latter has been true since 1954, when Pennsylvania elected only its fourth Democratic governor since the close of the Civil War.

But it looks as if that rule might not hold in 2014. In 2010, Attorney General Tom Corbett defeated Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) Executive Dan Onorato by nearly 10 points. But cuts to education and ties to the Penn State sex abuse scandal have sapped Corbett’s popularity, and he is in dire shape in the polls against Democratic businessman Tom Wolf.