Race Analysis

10/19/14 -- The revelation that Kitzhaber's fiancee had once been involved in an arranged marriage to help someone gain citizenship might make this race interesting, but probably not. Unless we get some contrary polling in the next few weeks, he remains a solid favorite.

10/1/14 -- Things have tightened up a bit here, but Kitzhaber still has a clear edge as voting begins. It would likely take a true wave to knock him out.

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Oregon was admitted to the Union as a free state. Most of its population is wedged into the Willamette Valley, between the Coastal Range and the Cascade Mountains. The state was Republican throughout its first 80 years, but it was in the progressive Republican camp. Once progressives became a permanent part of the Democratic coalition, the state moved toward the Democrats.

The state is also the home to the second-longest Republican gubernatorial losing streak in the country. From 1974 through the present, only one Republican has won the governorship: Victor Atiyeh won in 1978 and again in 1982.

Oregon is not so far to the left that a Republican cannot win here -- it was a close state in the 2000 and 2004 presidential races, and it elected a Republican senator from 1996 to 2008. Many Republicans thought that they could finally recapture the governor’s mansion in 2010, when Democrats nominated former Gov. John Kitzhaber, while Republicans turned to former NBA player Chris Dudley, a shot-blocker extraordinaire who also holds the NBA record for most consecutive missed free throws. Although Dudley led in most polls, he nevertheless fell behind Kitzhaber at the end and lost by a point. This time, Republicans have gone with state Rep. Dennis Richardson. The race is on the outskirts of competitiveness.