RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe GOP
2014 Key Races: OH-6 | OH-14
----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2012: President | Senate | OH-6 | OH-7 | OH-16
2010: Governor | Senate | OH-1 | OH-6 | OH-10 | OH-12 | OH-13 |OH-15 | OH-16 | OH-18
2008: President | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-16
2006: Sen | Gov | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-18
2004: President | Senate
Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Kasich (R) | FitzGerald (D) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP Average | 9/3 - 10/23 | -- | -- | 55.0 | 32.3 | Kasich +22.7 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 10/16 - 10/23 | 2728 LV | 3.0 | 54 | 35 | Kasich +19 |
Quinnipiac | 9/24 - 9/29 | 999 LV | 3.1 | 57 | 35 | Kasich +22 |
Columbus Dispatch* | 9/3 - 9/12 | 1185 RV | 2.7 | 59 | 29 | Kasich +30 |
Rasmussen Reports | 9/8 - 9/9 | 780 LV | 4.0 | 50 | 30 | Kasich +20 |
9/18/14 -- Democrats had hoped to turn this race into a competitive one, but their gubernatorial candidate has been beset with problems from the outset of his campaign. The latest allegation – that he was found in a parked car with a woman who is not his wife, at a time that he was not in possession of a valid driver’s license – is prompting talk of Democrats abandoning the ticket and focusing on downstate races.
----------Race Preview----------
2006 saw one of the largest gubernatorial blowouts in Ohio gubernatorial history, as Congressman Ted Strickland blew out Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell by a 60-37 margin. Blackwell was seen as a rising star by state and national Republicans, but the national Democratic tide, combined with Blackwell’s across-the-board conservatism, led to a huge defeat in this swing state.
But Strickland’s tenure as governor was turbulent, as the state shed both jobs and population. He lost in 2010 -- albeit by a narrow margin -- to former congressman John Kasich, who had been employed as a partner at Lehman Brothers, the investment firm whose collapse precipitated the financial system collapse of 2008.
Kasich’s term likewise got off to a rocky start, as his attempts to weaken public employee labor unions was roundly rejected by Ohio voters in a referendum. But his approval ratings rebounded somewhat, while Democratic nominee Ed FitzGerald, the Cuyahoga (Cleveland) County executive, saw his campaign get off to a rough start as well. Kasich maintains a solid lead in the polls, but has never really cracked the 50 percent mark. This is a competitive race, but Kasich has the edge.
Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Kasich (R) | FitzGerald (D) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP Average | 9/3 - 10/23 | -- | -- | 55.0 | 32.3 | Kasich +22.7 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 10/16 - 10/23 | 2728 LV | 3.0 | 54 | 35 | Kasich +19 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 9/20 - 10/1 | 3082 LV | 2.0 | 52 | 36 | Kasich +16 |
Quinnipiac | 9/24 - 9/29 | 999 LV | 3.1 | 57 | 35 | Kasich +22 |
Columbus Dispatch* | 9/3 - 9/12 | 1185 RV | 2.7 | 59 | 29 | Kasich +30 |
Rasmussen Reports | 9/8 - 9/9 | 780 LV | 4.0 | 50 | 30 | Kasich +20 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 8/18 - 9/2 | 2978 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 37 | Kasich +13 |
Quinnipiac | 7/24 - 7/28 | 1366 RV | 2.7 | 48 | 36 | Kasich +12 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 7/5 - 7/24 | 3624 RV | -- | 49 | 43 | Kasich +6 |
Quinnipiac | 5/7 - 5/12 | 1174 RV | 2.9 | 50 | 35 | Kasich +15 |
Rasmussen Reports | 5/7 - 5/8 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 38 | Kasich +7 |
SurveyUSA* | 4/24 - 4/28 | 618 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 36 | Kasich +10 |
Magellan Strategies (R) | 4/14 - 4/15 | 857 LV | 3.4 | 47 | 41 | Kasich +6 |
Quinnipiac | 2/12 - 2/17 | 1370 RV | 2.7 | 43 | 38 | Kasich +5 |
Quinnipiac | 11/19 - 11/24 | 1361 RV | 2.7 | 44 | 37 | Kasich +7 |
PPP (D) | 8/16 - 8/19 | 551 RV | 4.2 | 35 | 38 | FitzGerald +3 |
Quinnipiac | 6/18 - 6/23 | 941 RV | 3.2 | 47 | 33 | Kasich +14 |
Quinnipiac | 4/10 - 4/15 | 1138 RV | 2.9 | 46 | 37 | Kasich +9 |
Quinnipiac | 2/21 - 2/26 | 1011 RV | 3.1 | 45 | 35 | Kasich +10 |