Race Analysis

10/7/14 -- Cuomo has been trending downward, but there almost certainly isn’t enough time for Astorino to catch him.

----------Race Preview----------

For years, the stepping stone to a major party nomination was to be elected governor of New York. From 1876 until 1948, governors of the state were on the ticket as president or vice president in 14 of 19 elections (other New Yorkers were on tickets in two of the remaining five elections). But as the years wore on, New York's prominence faded, and California and Texas replaced the Empire State as the home of Presidents.

In 2006, the state overwhelmingly elected Eliot Spitzer governor. But Spitzer was caught up in a prostitution scandal, and the reins of power were transferred to his lieutenant governor, David Paterson. Then Paterson's popularity cratered, leaving an opening for Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to seek the governor's mansion in 2010.

Republicans nominated real estate developer Carl Paladino, whose missteps made it impossible for him to take advantage of the otherwise favorable climate for Republicans. Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, the Republicans’ nominee this cycle, is a clear step up from Paladino, but still seems unlikely to unseat Cuomo.