Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- If early voting is any indication, we could be looking at a massive tsunami in Nevada. Sandoval is going to win in a walk, but if he has coattails, it could increase 2016 speculation.

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Nevada is really something of a city-state. Although geographically massive, 86 percent of its votes are cast in the Las Vegas and Reno/Sparks metro areas. These are some of the fastest growing areas in the United States. The state’s politics are thus typically in a state of flux, with politicians having to reintroduce themselves every four years.

This already tempestuous political situation was thrown further into turmoil when the Las Vegas real estate market collapsed. In 2008, this allowed Barack Obama to win a huge victory in a state that typically had close elections; his margin shrank considerably in 2012. But while Democrats managed to save Sen. Harry Reid from defeat (improbably, given early polling), Judge Brian Sandoval won the governorship, defeating Reid’s son by almost double digits. Sandoval faces off against Bob Goodman, and is the heavy favorite. The real excitement is in the race for lieutenant governor, which could help decide whether Sandoval challenges Reid in 2016 or not.