Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- Is LePage up by 10? Down by six? Who knows. Things point overall to a close race.

10/19/14 -- This race seems to be in many ways about Cutler, who has staged a bit of a comeback in the past two weeks, mostly at Michaud's expense. It might be this simple: If Cutler is above 20 percent, LePage wins. If he is below 20 percent, Michaud wins.

10/7/14 -- As Cutler has declined, Michaud has opened up a slight lead. If Cutler suffers the typical drop-off for a third party on Election Day, LePage will probably find himself at the end of his political career.

10/1/14 -- This race remains oddly stable, with Michaud leading LePage by a slight margin. Cutler’s share has been declining, however, and that is a very bad sign for LePage.

----------Race Preview----------

“As goes Maine, so goes the nation.” This was the rule of thumb for political prognosticators for decades. Maine is a quirky state, and for years it held its elections in September. This gave an early view of the mood of the country in the day before reliable public opinion polling. Of course this ended in 1936 when Maine and Vermont were the only two states to vote against FDR, causing his campaign manager to famously comment, “As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.”

But make no mistake, for years the only question was what degree of support Maine would give to the Republican candidate. Until 1954, when Ed Muskie won, the Republicans had only lost five gubernatorial elections – at a time when governor’s elections were held every two years.

Since then, Republicans have won only five. In keeping with the state’s quirky character, Maine has a predilection for independents – only once has a major party candidate won a majority in the state since the 1970s.

Democratic Gov. John Baldacci was vulnerable in 2006, but Republicans nominated Chandler Woodcock, a social conservative who allowed Baldacci to win with 39 percent of the vote. In 2010, it was a different year, and a different story. Republicans nominated Paul LePage, the fiscally and socially conservative mayor of Waterville, Maine, who went on to win the general election by two points. LePage’s style of brusque conservatism hasn’t played particularly well here, but he once again faces a race where his opponents are splitting the opposition vote.