Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- All signs here point to a close race, which probably isn't what Rauner wants. He needs to make the sale to a group of Democratic voters, and so far hasn't done so.

10/19/14 -- Rauner got some welcome news when Southern Illinois University found him with a small lead over Quinn. But that poll had a huge number of undecided voters, and in a state like Illinois, that is probably rough news for Rauner.

10/7/14 -- Quinn has bounced back, and holds a lead. The state might just be too blue for Rauner to win.

----------Race Preview----------

Had you asked a political observer 30 years ago whether a governor’s race in Illinois would be competitive, you’d likely have received a look normally reserved for those claim to have been abducted by aliens. Illinois has historically been one of the more politically competitive states in the United States, and a governor’s race in Illinois was supposed to be close.

But in recent years it has become more surprising to hear that a Republican was competitive in this race. Even while beset by allegations of ethical impropriety, Rod Blagojevich was able to win re-election handily in 2006 against the lone Republican statewide officeholder, and underwhelming Gov. Pat Quinn was able to fend off a game challenge from Republican Bill Brady in 2010. This time, Quinn is receiving generally poor polls against his challenger, businessman Bruce Rauner. But Brady polled well in 2010 as well, but undecided voters ended up breaking overwhelmingly against him at the end. Quinn is hoping that Democrats once again come home for him, big time, in the end.