Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Deal (R) | Carter (D) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP Average | 10/16 - 10/27 | -- | -- | 46.7 | 44.1 | Deal +2.6 |
Rasmussen Reports | 10/25 - 10/27 | 977 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 44 | Deal +6 |
SurveyUSA* | 10/24 - 10/27 | 611 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 44 | Deal +2 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov* | 10/16 - 10/23 | 1774 LV | 4.0 | 47 | 43 | Deal +4 |
Atlanta Journal-Constitution* | 10/16 - 10/23 | 1170 LV | 3.6 | 46 | 41 | Deal +5 |
InsiderAdvantage* | 10/21 - 10/22 | 704 LV | 3.7 | 44 | 44 | Tie |
WSB-TV/Landmark* | 10/20 - 10/21 | 1000 LV | 2.8 | 48 | 45 | Deal +3 |
CNN/Opinion Research* | 10/19 - 10/22 | 565 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 48 | Carter +2 |
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10/19/14 -- Deal continues to hold a narrow lead over Carter. Neither candidate appears to be close to the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
10/7/14 -- Deal has a small lead, but Carter seems range-bound. There’s no doubt a Democrat in Georgia can win 43 to 44 percent of the vote. The question is how that Democrat can get to 50 percent plus one in a runoff.
----------Race Preview----------
From Jan. 12, 1872 through Jan. 12, 2003, Georgia had nothing but Democratic governors. The state didn’t have a Republican base, and Democratic primaries were usually decided on a friends-and-neighbors basis, rather than on the basis of ideological or geographical splits, so the Republican Party had to be built from scratch. And so, the GOP grew in urban Atlanta, spread to suburban Atlanta, and only in 2002 broke through to the rural reaches of the state.
That year, Sonny Perdue ousted Roy Barnes, who had been mentioned as a possible presidential contender. Perdue was term-limited in 2010, and both Republicans and Democrats had high-profile fights for the nomination. On the Republican side, former Secretary of State Karen Handel lost narrowly to Congressman Nathan Deal. On the Democratic side, former Gov. Barnes tried to make a comeback attempt.
Polls showed a close race, but Barnes ultimately proved incapable of expanding his base of support past the 43 percent mark he managed to achieve in the polls. Deal has had some problems as governor, and polls now show a close race against state Sen. Jason Carter, grandson of the former president. But once again, the question is whether Carter can expand beyond the 42 percent of the vote that a Democrat can typically count on in the state as a minimum.
Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Deal (R) | Carter (D) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP Average | 10/16 - 10/27 | -- | -- | 46.7 | 44.1 | Deal +2.6 |
Rasmussen Reports | 10/25 - 10/27 | 977 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 44 | Deal +6 |
SurveyUSA* | 10/24 - 10/27 | 611 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 44 | Deal +2 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov* | 10/16 - 10/23 | 1774 LV | 4.0 | 47 | 43 | Deal +4 |
Atlanta Journal-Constitution* | 10/16 - 10/23 | 1170 LV | 3.6 | 46 | 41 | Deal +5 |
InsiderAdvantage* | 10/21 - 10/22 | 704 LV | 3.7 | 44 | 44 | Tie |
WSB-TV/Landmark* | 10/20 - 10/21 | 1000 LV | 2.8 | 48 | 45 | Deal +3 |
CNN/Opinion Research* | 10/19 - 10/22 | 565 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 48 | Carter +2 |
SurveyUSA* | 10/17 - 10/20 | 606 LV | 4.1 | 45 | 43 | Deal +2 |
WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB* | 10/13 - 10/14 | 1543 LV | 2.5 | 44 | 44 | Tie |
SurveyUSA* | 10/10 - 10/13 | 563 LV | 4.2 | 46 | 46 | Tie |
WSB-TV/Landmark* | 10/7 - 10/9 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 45 | 45 | Tie |
SurveyUSA* | 10/2 - 10/6 | 566 LV | 4.2 | 46 | 44 | Deal +2 |
PPP (D) | 10/2 - 10/5 | 895 LV | 3.3 | 50 | 45 | Deal +5 |
Rasmussen Reports | 9/30 - 10/1 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 49 | 43 | Deal +6 |
InsiderAdvantage* | 9/29 - 10/1 | 947 LV | 3.2 | 44 | 43 | Deal +1 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov* | 9/20 - 10/1 | 1851 LV | 3.0 | 48 | 43 | Deal +5 |
SurveyUSA* | 9/19 - 9/22 | 550 LV | 4.3 | 44 | 45 | Carter +1 |
Rasmussen Reports | 9/15 - 9/16 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 44 | Deal +1 |
InsiderAdvantage* | 9/10 - 9/11 | 1167 LV | 2.9 | 44 | 40 | Deal +4 |
WSB-TV/Landmark* | 9/9 - 9/11 | 1109 LV | 2.9 | 44 | 47 | Carter +3 |
Atlanta Journal-Constitution* | 9/8 - 9/11 | 884 LV | 4.0 | 43 | 42 | Deal +1 |
SurveyUSA* | 9/5 - 9/8 | 558 LV | 4.2 | 45 | 44 | Deal +1 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov* | 8/18 - 9/2 | 1900 LV | 3.0 | 47 | 39 | Deal +8 |
WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB* | 8/24 - 8/25 | 1578 LV | 2.5 | 44 | 42 | Deal +2 |
WSB-TV/Landmark* | 8/20 - 8/21 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 40 | 44 | Carter +4 |
SurveyUSA* | 8/14 - 8/17 | 560 LV | 4.2 | 48 | 39 | Deal +9 |
InsiderAdvantage* | 8/12 - 8/13 | 719 LV | 3.7 | 43 | 39 | Deal +4 |
Rasmussen Reports | 7/23 - 7/24 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 44 | 45 | Carter +1 |
WSB-TV/Landmark* | 7/25 - 7/25 | 750 LV | 3.8 | 40 | 47 | Carter +7 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 7/5 - 7/24 | 2568 RV | -- | 50 | 41 | Deal +9 |
WSB-TV/Landmark* | 7/15 - 7/15 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 41 | 49 | Carter +8 |
InsiderAdvantage* | 6/24 - 6/25 | 1349 LV | 2.7 | 47 | 40 | Deal +7 |
SurveyUSA* | 6/3 - 6/5 | 999 LV | 3.2 | 44 | 38 | Deal +6 |
Rasmussen Reports | 5/21 - 5/22 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 41 | 48 | Carter +7 |
SurveyUSA* | 5/8 - 5/12 | 1380 LV | 2.7 | 43 | 37 | Deal +6 |
Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 5/5 - 5/8 | 1012 RV | 4.0 | 48 | 44 | Deal +4 |
Saint Leo University* | 5/5 - 5/6 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 38 | 35 | Deal +3 |
NBC News/Marist | 4/30 - 5/5 | 2196 RV | 2.1 | 50 | 40 | Deal +10 |
SurveyUSA* | 4/24 - 4/27 | 1567 LV | 2.5 | 41 | 37 | Deal +4 |
Landmark/Rosetta Stone | 3/30 - 3/30 | 575 LV | 4.0 | 43 | 39 | Deal +4 |
InsiderAdvantage** | 3/9 - 3/10 | 486 RV | 4.0 | 38 | 41 | Carter +3 |
Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 1/6 - 1/9 | 802 RV | 4.0 | 47 | 38 | Deal +9 |
InsiderAdvantage | 1/6 - 1/6 | 529 RV | 4.6 | 44 | 22 | Deal +22 |
PPP (D) | 8/2 - 8/5 | 520 RV | 4.3 | 48 | 33 | Deal +15 |
PPP (D) | 2/15 - 2/18 | 602 RV | 4.0 | 46 | 38 | Deal +8 |
PPP (D) | 11/30 - 12/2 | 729 RV | 3.6 | 46 | 38 | Deal +8 |